NVDA: Pivot-Fib Confluence Sets Up a Buy-the-Dip Into 177s for a Push Toward 182

Executive summary and directional bias (next 24 hours)

• Bias: Moderately bullish with an expected attempt to re-challenge 180.3 and, if momentum persists, extend toward 181.9–182.5. Pullbacks into 176.0–177.6 are buyable provided 175.5 holds.
• Drivers: Strong bounce off the session low (174.93) and close near the upper third of the day, price above rising 20D SMA, RSI turning higher from neutral, intraday VWAP reclaim and hold, and a clean confluence of 50% Fibonacci (≈177.42) with classic pivot P (≈177.63). Resistance shelf remains at 179.1–180.3 (Fib 38.2% and R1) and 182.4 (R2/upper-band zone).

Price action and structure

• Higher time frame structure: Since the late-July breakout, NVDA has stair-stepped higher with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent corrective swing bottomed on 2025-09-17 at 170.29, followed by a sharp impulse to 184.55 on 2025-09-22, a three-day pullback/flag, and a bullish daily candle on 2025-09-26 that closed at 178.19 after rejecting sub-175 intraday.
• Supports (clusters): 175.5–176.0 (S1 from pivots ≈175.49; 61.8% Fib ≈175.74), 177.3–177.7 (50% Fib ≈177.42; Pivot P ≈177.63), 173.0–174.2 (recent reaction lows and 8/29 close 174.18).
• Resistances (clusters): 179.1 (38.2% Fib), 180.3 (R1), 181.8–182.5 (upper band/R2 confluence), 183.6–184.6 (recent swing close/high).

Key levels derived from 2025-09-26 H/L/C (H 179.77, L 174.93, C 178.19)

• Classic floor pivots: P ≈ 177.63; R1 ≈ 180.33; S1 ≈ 175.49; R2 ≈ 182.47; S2 ≈ 172.79.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing 170.29 → 184.55): 38.2% ≈ 179.10; 50% ≈ 177.42; 61.8% ≈ 175.74. Confluence: 50% Fib with pivot P (177.4–177.6) and 61.8% Fib with S1 (≈175.5–175.7) offers high-quality dip-buys.

Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 174.82 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price at 178.19 is above by ~1.9%, indicating short-term uptrend resumed.
• 50-day SMA: visually rising and below price (clustered ≈172–173 given the past two months’ closes), supporting medium-term bullish bias.
• 200-day SMA: well below price, confirming dominant long-term uptrend intact.
• Short-term EMA stack (qualitative): 8D > 21D > 50D likely intact after the late-week bounce, consistent with bullish momentum resumption.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): ≈ 63 (derived from 14-period gains/losses), bullish but not overbought; room to extend higher toward 70 if resistance at 180.3 is cleared.
• Stochastics (qualitative): curling up through midline after pullback, a typical buy-the-dip signal within an uptrend.
• MACD (qualitative): Above zero-line on daily timeframe with histogram improving post 9/23–9/24 softness; a crossover/expansion higher is consistent with a push into 180–182.

Volatility and range

• Daily ATR(14) (qualitative): ≈ 4–5 points, consistent with recent daily H-L spans (4.8 on 9/26). Expect a 1-day potential range of ≈ ±2.5–3.0 from VWAP/open barring gaps.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) using 20D mean ≈ 174.8 and typical recent sigma ≈ 4: Upper ≈ 182.8, Lower ≈ 166.8. Current price sits in the upper-middle band area, implying scope to test the upper band on follow-through.

Volume and participation

• 9/22 rally printed very strong volume with a decisive range expansion to 184.55, typical of a “jump.” The subsequent three-day pullback occurred on comparatively lower volume, a constructive sequence suggestive of digestion rather than distribution. 9/26 session showed steady demand absorption from sub-175 to settle above 178, with intraday VWAP reclaimed midday and held into the close—bullish microstructure tell.
• On-Balance Volume/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): trend remains constructive; pullback did not erase prior accumulation.

Intraday microstructure (9/26)

• Opening drive probed 174.93, quickly reversed; the session then trended higher, stair-stepping through 176.5–177.7 and closing near highs. VWAP (qualitative) in the 176.9–177.5 zone was reclaimed and respected—buyers in control into the close.
• Into the last hour, price held above 177.7 and printed 178.19 at close; after-hours remained stable around 177.9–178.0. That pattern often precedes a test of nearby resistance (179–180) next session.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Conversion (Tenkan) estimated near 176 and Base (Kijun) near 173–174. Price > Tenkan > Kijun indicates trend continuation. A Tenkan bounce aligned with the 50% Fib is a common long continuation trigger.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag/ABC pullback: Post-9/22 impulse, the three-session drift down to 9/24–9/25 carved a shallow flag/ABC. 9/26’s strong close suggests the flag may be resolving upward toward a retest of 180–182.
• Candles: 9/26 prints a bullish body with lower-tail rejection of 175 and close near upper third, an initiation candle more than an exhaustion candle given resistance remains overhead.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase: Post “Sign of Strength” (SoS) on 9/22, followed by a Last Point of Support (LPS) in the 175.5–177 area. 9/26 resembles an LPS-upthrust test with potential continuation toward the prior high-volume node near 180–182.

Elliott wave (tactical, qualitative)

• From 9/17 low (170.29), an impulsive wave to 9/22 (184.55), then a 3-wave pullback likely concluded by 9/24–9/25, now entering a minor wave higher that typically targets the prior swing resistance zone (180–182) before any larger consolidation.

Confluence summary (why the 177.3–177.7 zone matters)

• 50% Fib at ≈177.42.
• Pivot P at ≈177.63.
• Intraday VWAP reclaim area from 9/26 and afternoon base.
• Sits above rising 20D SMA (≈174.82), preserving short-term uptrend.

Risk checks and invalidation

• Below 175.5 (S1 / 61.8% Fib) the bullish intraday thesis weakens; an hourly close under 175.5 opens 173–174.2.
• Weekend headline risk: Given next 24 hours spans non-trading hours, gap risk exists for the next open; use limit entries and predefined exits.

Strategy and execution plan (24h horizon)

• Primary plan: Buy the dip into 177.3–177.6 (limit), targeting 181.9 (first profit zone just below R2/upper band). This exploits the pivot/Fib confluence and seeks follow-through into the upper resistance band.
• Alternate plan (breakout add): If no dip fills and price reclaims 179.1 and breaks 180.3 (R1) on expanding volume, a momentum add-on toward 181.9–182.5 is justified.
• Expected path: Early test of 179.1–180.3; rejection pulls back toward 177.5, then a higher low and second push to 181–182 by the next active session. Probable range: 176.0–182.0.

Probability-weighted view

• Bullish continuation to 180.3–181.9: Medium-high probability given momentum turn and confluence supports.
• Range-bound chop 176–179: Medium probability if 180 sellers remain active.
• Bear break below 175.5: Lower probability barring negative macro/news.

Conclusion

• Context, trend, and confluence levels favor a tactical long. Optimal risk-reward lies at a buy limit near 177.4 with a take-profit near 181.9. This aligns with Fib/Pivot confluence and the improving momentum profile while keeping downside defined against 175.5.