NVDA Coils Under 184: Dip-Buy Setup for a Quarter‑End Breakout Attempt

NVDA technical state at a glance (as of 2025-09-29 close):

• Last price: 181.85 (after-hours printing near 181.48); session high 184.00, low 180.35; notable rejection near 184 resistance.
• Prevailing context: multi-week uptrend off the 9/17 swing low (170.29) with higher lows and a horizontal ceiling near 183.6–184, forming an ascending triangle-type consolidation.

1. Trend and Moving Averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 178.6; 10D SMA ≈ 177.5; 20D SMA ≈ 175.2 (estimates from supplied closes). Price trades above all three, reflecting bullish short- and intermediate-term bias.
• 20D slope is upward; price is ~3.8% above the 20D SMA, not yet stretched.
• 50D SMA (approx mid-170s) is below price and curling up, confirming medium-term uptrend structure. Price > 20D > 50D sequencing is constructive.
• EMA posture: 9–21 EMAs likely clustered ~178.5–179.5; price above these supports momentum continuation on dips.

2. Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: mid-to-high 50s to low 60s by inference—bullish but not overbought; room to extend toward prior highs.
• Stochastic (14): roughly ~80–85%, reflecting price closing near the upper end of the recent 14-session range. This can precede short pullbacks (dip-risk) within an uptrend.
• MACD (12,26,9): positive line with a small histogram after a brief consolidation; suggests momentum re-acceleration possible if price resolves above 184 with volume.
• No glaring bearish momentum divergence on daily closes, but intraday 9/29 did show a slight negative divergence at 184 vs. 9/22 peak (183.61) on lower intraday momentum—hence resistance respect is warranted.

3. Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14) daily: ~5.5–6.0 points. A typical 1-day swing could be ±3.0–3.5% from entry.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): center ~175.2; upper band estimated near 183.5–184; price closed just below/at the upper band—consistent with “coiling under resistance” rather than overextension.
• Positioning near the upper band with constructive trend often resolves with either a brief mean-reversion dip toward the 20D EMA/BB midrange or a breakout impulse beyond the upper band. Given trend context, odds lean to a shallow dip then attempt higher.

4. Market Structure, Levels, and Price Action

• Resistance: 183.6–184.0 (9/22 close 183.61; 9/29 high 184.00). A clean break-and-hold above 184 opens 185.0–186.0 next.
• Near-term support: 181.0–181.2 (intraday congestion, micro shelf); 180.7–180.8 (78.6% Fib of 170.29→183.61 leg and 9/29 session mid); 179.8–180.0 (small upside gap zone vs. 9/26 high 179.77); deeper 177.5–178.0 (multi-session close cluster/pivot).
• Candles: 9/29 daily shows an upper-tail rejection at 184 but the real body still green vs. prior week’s closes—indicative of “testing supply,” not rejection failure.
• Gap analysis: 9/29 left a minor unfilled gap above 9/26 high (179.77) with session low 180.35; this gap top (179.77–180) often acts as first strong dip-buy zone.

5. Fibonacci and Measured Moves

• From 9/17 low (170.29) to 9/22 high (183.61): 61.8% retrace ~175.5 (successfully defended on 9/24 low 176.97). Price now above 78.6% (~180.76), which statistically favors a retest or marginal break of the swing high (183.6–184) rather than a breakdown.
• Ascending triangle heuristic: horizontal ceiling near 184 with rising troughs (170.3 → 176–178 → 180+). A measured break typically targets the height of the pattern added to the breakout line; conservatively for a 24h window, a 1–2 ATR push above 184 (to ~185–186) is reasonable.

6. Volume, VWAP, and Intraday Microstructure (9/29)

• Volume: 191M shares, above many recent sessions but below the 9/22 spike. Healthy participation on the test of resistance.
• Intraday VWAP: estimated near 182.1–182.4; closing around 181.85 and after-hours 181.48 places price slightly below session VWAP—modest end-of-day supply, but not a decisive fade.
• Market profile impression: POC clustered ~182; closing just below suggests early next session may probe 181–182 balance region before directional selection.

7. Ichimoku, SAR, ADX (Daily Inference)

• Ichimoku: Price likely above cloud; Tenkan estimated ~178.5–179.5, Kijun ~176.0–177.0; bullish stack with supportive baselines below. Chikou above price from 26 periods back—confirmatory.
• Parabolic SAR: likely flipped below price during the rebound; bullish bias until a decisive close under ~179.
• ADX (trend strength): moderate (~20–25), consistent with a trend that is reasserting after consolidation.

8. Elliott Wave/Fractal Read

• From 9/17’s 170.29 pivot: Wave 3 to 183.6, Wave 4 corrective to ~177, now a Wave 5 push attempting to marginally exceed 183.6–184. Typical 5th wave can stretch by 0.382–1.000 of Wave 1’s length; for a 24h horizon, a modest extension into 185–186 is plausible.

9. Relative/Contextual Considerations

• Sector leadership: NVDA remains a bellwether for AI/semi. Even without hard sector data here, recent multi-session resilience vs. broad pullbacks implies relative strength.
• Quarter-end (9/30) “window dressing” tendency can support leaders near highs; this can tilt odds toward a breakout attempt if futures are benign.

10. Risk Assessment and Scenarios (Next 24 Hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip toward 181.2–180.8 support, then buyers step in, driving a test/attempted break of 183.6–184. Target zone 184.8–185.5 into the close.
• Bullish breakout (25%): Strong open >182.8, swift push through 184 with follow-through to 185.5–186.5 (1+ ATR from support), closing near highs.
• Bearish fade (20%): Rejection under 183.5 persists; break below 180.7 invites gap-fill test 179.8–180.0; deeper slide could probe 178.0 but would likely find buyers ahead of 177.5 given the rising MA stack.

11. Strategy Synthesis and Trade Plan

• Confluence for a dip-buy: • Price above rising 10/20/50-day MAs; • 78.6% Fib reclaim (180.76) now underlying; • Minor unfilled gap support ~179.8–180.0; • Ascending triangle pressure below 184; • ATR provides headroom for a 2–3.5 point push after a tactical pullback.
• Optimal entry: Buy on a controlled dip into 181.2 ± 0.3 (inside the 181.0–181.5 liquidity pocket), capturing better R:R and aligning with intraday shelves.
• Profit objective (24h): 184.8 (beneath the first expansion target and ahead of likely supply near 185–186). This books gains into resistance rather than assuming a full breakout extension.
• Risk control (suggested, not part of the requested output fields): Stop below 179.4 (beneath gap fill and under 9/29 low), yielding R:R ~2:1 vs. 184.8 target from 181.2 entry.

Bottom line

• Bias: Constructively bullish with preference to buy dips rather than chase resistance. Expect a test of 183.6–184 and a reasonable shot at tagging 184.8–185.5 within 24 hours, barring adverse macro headlines.