NVDA Breaks Out Above 184—Setting Up a Buy-the-Dip Push Toward 190–191

NVDA — full-spectrum, step-by-step technical roadmap (next 24 hours)

Executive read: NVDA just executed a high-volume breakout above the late-August swing high (184.47), printing a fresh 1-month high at 187.35 and closing near the highs at 186.58. Momentum, breadth, and trend metrics are aligned bullishly. Into quarter-end and first-of-month flows, the base case is a shallow pullback toward 185–185.5 (retest of breakout/PP) followed by continuation toward 189–191. Risk pivots: 184.5 (breakout line), 182.9 (S1), 180.8 (38.2% retrace of 9/17→9/30 leg).

1. Price action and structure

• Trend regime: From the 9/17 swing low (170.29), NVDA has formed higher highs and higher lows, culminating in a decisive break above 8/28 high (184.47). This converts prior supply into support.
• Candlestick diagnostics (daily 9/30): Wide-range bullish candle (H=187.35, L=181.48, C=186.58) with strong close near the upper quartile. That’s a “bullish continuation day,” not an exhaustion wick.
• Intraday microstructure (hourly): Early expansion to 187.35, midday balance 185.3–186.8, close near 186.6. A late-hour sweep printed 180.47 in after-hours, then mean-reverted—evidence of liquidity run, not sustained distribution.

2. Volume and breadth

• Breakout volume: ~235M shares, in line with prior strong trend days and well above quieter sessions. Confirms participation on the upside.
• Accumulation tone: Several recent up days (9/18, 9/22, 9/29, 9/30) posted large positive price delta on healthy volume—supports an accumulation phase transitioning into markup.
• OBV/AD line (qualitative): Rising since 9/17; no divergence vs price into the breakout—bullish confirmation.

3. Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• 20-day SMA ≈ 176.0 (calc from last 20 closes). Price at 186.6 sits ~+6% above—strong short-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 175–178; 200-day SMA (est.) well below current. Price > 20SMA > 50SMA > 200SMA = fully stacked bullish.
• EMA ribbon behavior (8–21 EMA): Price riding above upper ribbon—typical of momentum phases; pullbacks to the 8–13 EMA band (roughly 183–185) often get bought.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 62 (computed). Bullish, not overbought. Ample room to extend to 68–72 before typical pullback risk increases.
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative: Positive and expanding; histogram rising since mid-September—momentum build consistent with a new swing impulse.
• Stochastics (qual.): High but not pegged; supports a buy-the-dip profile rather than calling for immediate mean reversion.
• ADX (14) qualitative: Rising into mid-20s/low-30s: trend gaining strength; trend-following edge improving.

5. Volatility framework

• ATR(14) (est.) ≈ 5.5–6.0. A 1x ATR up = ~192; 1x ATR down = ~181 from 186.6. This brackets the next-day feasible extremes.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA ±2*ATR): Middle near 176–177; upper band projects ~187–189—price is near/just under the KC upper edge, typical of persistent trend days.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 176; stdev est. ≈ 5.5; Upper ≈ 187. Price closed just under the upper band—trend-bias with modest mean-reversion pullback risk.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, qualitative)

• Price above Tenkan (≈178–179) and Kijun (≈175–176); bullish TK alignment.
• Price well above a rising cloud; Leading Span A > Span B; no cloud resistance overhead—supports continuation.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing 9/17 (170.29) → 9/30 high (187.35) = 17.06 range.
  • 38.2% retrace: 180.83
  • 50% retrace: 178.82
  • 61.8% retrace: 176.99
• Price closed near the top of the swing; buyers defended ~181.5 intraday and even an AH flush to ~180.5 was reclaimed—respect shown to the 38.2%.
• Cup-and-handle characterization: August peak 184.47 → September handle ~170–178 → breakout 9/30. Measured move ≈ 184.5 + (184.5−170.3) ≈ 198.7 over multi-week horizon. For 24h, use nearer pivots (R1/R2).

8. Classical pivots (for 10/01 session, using H=187.35, L=181.48, C=186.58)

• Pivot (PP) ≈ 185.14
• R1 ≈ 188.79; R2 ≈ 191.01
• S1 ≈ 182.92; S2 ≈ 179.27 Implication: Baseline magnet is the pivot ~185.1; upside tests likely at 188.8–191.0 if buyers hold above PP on the open.

9. VWAP perspectives

• Day VWAP (9/30) clustered ~186.2–186.4 given heavy early prints near highs; close at 186.58 slightly above—bullish bias into tomorrow if the open holds above/near day VWAP.
• Anchored VWAP from 9/17 low tracks in high-170s; price is well above, indicating trend control by buyers.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Phase C/D characteristics: SOS on 9/22, backing up to support 9/24–26, renewed SOS on 9/29–30 with a breakout. Expected behavior: minor BU/LPS around 184.5–185.5 before the next mark-up leg toward 189–191.

11. Elliott wave (tactical)

• The sequence off 9/17 looks like 1 (to 9/22), 2 (to 9/24), extended 3 (to 9/29), shallow 4 (AM 9/30), 5 (to 187.35). If micro-wave 5 is in, a small ABC into 184.8–185.5 is probable before the next impulsive attempt at 189–191.

12. Support/resistance map and gap logic

• New resistance turned support: 184.5 (8/28 high) now first support.
• Intraday/PP support band: 184.8–185.5 (prior breakout + PP + intraday balance).
• S1/Gap-fill zone: 182.9–183.2; deeper support: 180.8 (38.2% retrace) and 179.3 (S2 proxy).
• Overhead resistance: 188.8 (R1), then 191.0 (R2), psychological 190, extension 192 (1x ATR from close).

13. Relative strength and context

• NVDA has been leading semis on up days; breakout breadth across large-cap tech into quarter-end typically attracts inflows on the first trading day of the month.
• No immediate earnings catalyst within 24h to disrupt technicals; macro tape/US yields can affect beta but setup favors continuation barring risk-off shock.

14. Synthesis and 24-hour path scenario probabilities (qualitative)

• Base case (buy-the-dip continuation, ~60–65%): Early drift/pullback into 185–185.5 (PP/retest), then rotation up to 188.8–191.0. Close-in target cluster = 189.0–191.0.
• Alternate (deeper shakeout, ~25–30%): Sweep into 183.0–183.5 (S1 vicinity), quick reclaim >185 leading to a late push toward 188.
• Bearish tail (~10–15%): Sustained loss of 182.9 leading to 180.8 test; this would shift the day to mean-reversion/neutral rather than trend-up.

15. Trade construction (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Bullish continuation with preference to buy into 185–185.5 retest. If tape is exceptionally strong at open, momentum continuation above 187.4 is also viable but offers slightly worse R:R in the next 24h.
• Optimal entry zone: 184.9–185.3 (confluence of breakout line 184.5, PP 185.14, prior intraday balance). This increases fill probability and keeps stops modest.
• Profit-taking zone (next 24h): 189.8–191.0 (R1/R2 cluster; psychological 190).
• Risk pivots for self-management (not part of required output): Hard invalidation below 182.8–183.0 (loss of S1 and breakout integrity). Conservative stop ~182.2 (beneath S1 and Friday’s micro shelf) offers room for noise.

Conclusion: The multi-tool read (trend/MAs, RSI/MACD, BB/KC, Ichimoku, Wyckoff, fibs, pivots, volume) aligns on buy-the-dip continuation. Expect an early fade to 185±0.3 followed by a push toward 189–191 within the session/24h window, barring an exogenous risk-off shock.