NVDA: Buy the Dip at Pivot, Aim for an R2 Breakout Toward 190.7 in the Next 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis for NVDA (current price: $187.24) over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily trend: Up since the 9/17 swing low ($170.29) with higher highs and higher lows. Price is pressing against late-September highs ($187.35) after a strong 9/30 breakout day.
• Intraday (hourly) 10/01: Strong open near $186, steady bid above the session pivot, repeated tests of $187–$188 supply. A dramatic one-hour wick (199.29/175.12) looks like a transient liquidity sweep/print anomaly; price quickly reverted to ~$187, signaling absorption and balanced two-sided trade with buyers defending dips.
• Takeaway: Uptrend intact on daily; intraday shows consolidation near highs—often a bullish continuation setup if resistance is absorbed.

2. Moving averages and slope

• 20-day SMA ≈ $176.82 (approximation from last 20 closes). Price is ~5.9% above the 20-SMA, indicating strong momentum yet some overextension.
• 50-day SMA estimated mid-high $170s; 100-day ≈ upper $160s; 200-day ≈ upper $150s to low $160s. All beneath price and positively stacked (bullish trend alignment).
• EMAs (12/26) inferred rising; short-term EMA > long-term EMA—consistent with recent momentum.
• Impact: Bullish regime; pullbacks to fast MAs tend to be bought. Overextension vs 20-SMA implies potential shallow dips before continuation.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily estimated low-to-mid 60s: positive momentum, not at extreme >70. Room for continuation.
• Stochastic oscillators likely high (>80), but in trends they can stay elevated for days. Not a sell signal on its own.
• MACD daily: Bullish cross and positive histogram since the mid-September turn; histogram may be flattening as price hugs resistance, typical of consolidation-before-break.
• Impact: Momentum constructive; not yet signaling exhaustion. A small digestion would reset intraday oscillators and fuel a breakout.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ≈ $4.8–$5.2 (est.). Recent daily ranges 3–6 dollars.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ $176.8; upper ≈ $186.8–$187.0 given current realized vol. Price is tagging the upper band—typical in bullish trends; can walk the band or mean-revert modestly to intraday VWAP/pivot.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2xATR/10-day): Upper envelope currently ~mid-$186s to $187s; price sitting at/just above upper band implies near-term pause/dip risk but not necessarily reversal.
• Impact: Expect a 24h path featuring a shallow dip ($185.5–$186.5) or immediate breakout run of ~1–2 ATRs if $188–$189 gives way.

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• 9/30 showed notably high volume with a strong close near highs—bullish.
• 10/01 shows elevated intraday volume with repeated reversion to ~187 after the wick, suggesting absorption and a volume node around 186.5–187.2.
• Intraday VWAP today sits roughly near $187.0; price oscillated around/above it for much of the session, indicating balanced-to-bid conditions.
• Market profile: High Volume Node (HVN) 186.5–187.2; resistance supply above 188 is thinner—potential fast tape to 190+ if broken.
• Impact: Buyers are active near VWAP/HVN; thin air above ~188.2 favors a pop if offers are lifted.

6. Support and resistance, levels confluence

• Key resistance: 187.35 (recent high), 188.14 (today’s intraday high), 188.95 (R1), 190.67 (R2), psychological 190/192.
• Support: 186.43 (classic pivot P computed from H=188.14, L=183.90, C≈187.24), 184.71 (S1), 182.19 (S2), 181.85 (Fib 23.6% of 164.07→187.35), 178.46 (Fib 38.2%).
• Confluence: Pivot P ≈ 186.43 aligns with intraday HVN/VWAP zone—a high-quality dip-buy region. R2 ≈ 190.67 sits near a logical profit-taking area in the next 24h.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 9/05 low to 9/30 high)

• Range: 164.07 → 187.35 (∆=23.28).
• Retracements from 187.35: 23.6% = 181.85; 38.2% = 178.46; 50% = 175.71; 61.8% = 172.99.
• Recent price action respected 181.8–182 on multiple sessions—validating Fib confluence as strong support. Current action above 187 suggests extension potential toward 1.272–1.414 ext (~190.3–191.6).

8. Pivot points for next session (classic)

• P = (H+L+C)/3 = (188.14+183.90+187.24)/3 ≈ 186.43
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 188.95
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 184.71
• R2 = P + (H−L) ≈ 190.67
• S2 = P − (H−L) ≈ 182.19
• Read: Expect first battle near P (186.4). Above P favors tests of R1 (188.95) and, on strength, R2 (190.67).

9. Donchian and breakout context

• 20-day Donchian high ≈ 188.14; low ≈ 164.07; midline ≈ 176.10. Price hugging the upper channel signals a bullish breakout regime.

10. Ichimoku synopsis

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun (Tenkan likely ~183–184; Kijun ~174–175). Cloud ahead is up-sloping. Chikou above price. Net bullish across the suite; shallow pullbacks to Tenkan are buys in trend.

11. Parabolic SAR and trend confirmation

• PSAR would be below price (roughly low 180s), consistent with a persistent uptrend; no reversal trigger present.

12. Heikin-Ashi/price action patterning

• Recent HA candles would show rising bodies and small lower wicks until today’s small-bodied consolidation—typical pause day near resistance after a breakout. On standard candles, today resembles a near-doji with long intraday shadow (due to wick event), yet close remains high—buying absorption.

13. Wyckoff/volume spread analysis

• Post 9/17 shows accumulation and a sign of strength (SoS) on 9/30 with wide spread up on volume. 10/01 is likely a backup to the breakout (BU/LPS) around 186–187. If the LPS holds above pivot, next move is markup toward 190–191.

14. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 9/17 low: Wave 1 to 9/19–9/22, Wave 2 pullback into 9/23–9/24, Wave 3 into 9/30, Wave 4 shallow sideways today, setting up Wave 5 toward ~190–193. A shallow wave 4 supports a measured wave 5 equal to ~0.382–0.618 of wave 1–3 amplitude, projecting into low 190s.

15. Keltner/Bollinger squeeze-read

• Bands expanded on 9/30 and remain wide; price riding the upper envelope suggests trend continuation. No tight squeeze—expect follow-through within a 1–1.5x ATR range.

16. Risk, scenarios, probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation: 55–60%—hold above 186.4 pivot, push through 188.0–188.5, test R1 188.95 and extend to R2 190.67.
• Range and fade: 25–30%—early dip to 185.5–186.0 (near VWAP/Pivot), then recovery back to 187–188 close.
• Bearish break: 10–15%—loss of 184.7 (S1) opens 182.2 (S2)/181.8 Fib. Trend damage modest unless 181.5 decisively fails.

17. Trade plan logic (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within the 186.0–186.5 pivot/VWAP confluence, aligning with support and positive structure. Alternatively, a momentum add on breakout >188.2 with tight risk.
• Entry: Optimal limit near $186.40 (pivot P). This is where buyers showed up repeatedly and where risk is definable.
• Stop (risk control, not requested but prudent): Below today’s session low $183.90, or tighter below S1 $184.71 depending on tolerance. Example tactical stop: $183.80.
• Take-profit: Primary TP near Pivot R2 $190.67 (round to $190.70) within a 1-day window; this aligns with a reasonable 0.9–1.0x ATR extension above the breakout zone and common target for an R2 test.
• R:R from $186.40 entry with a $183.80 stop (−$2.60) and $190.70 target (+$4.30) ≈ 1:1.65. With tighter stop under S1, R:R > 2.

18. Catalysts/flows caveat

• Given only price/volume data, we anchor the plan to technicals. Any unexpected broad market shock can skew the 24h outcome; otherwise, the structure favors a controlled push toward 189–191 once 188 is absorbed.

24-hour price path projection

• Base case: Initial dip/sideways toward 186.0–186.5, buyers defend pivot/VWAP; subsequent rotation higher to probe 188.0–188.5. If offers are lifted, expansion to 189.5–190.7 by tomorrow’s US cash close window, with profit-taking above 190 likely.
• Risk case: Break and hold below 184.7 invites a move to 182.2–181.9 before stabilizing.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence (trend alignment, momentum, VWAP/pivot confluence, resistance thinness above 188) supports a Buy-the-dip plan with a 24h target near $190.7 (Pivot R2).