NVDA coiled under 190: buying the pause for a push toward 193

NVDA technical panorama as of 2025-10-02 21:00 UTC (close ~188.89)

Summary view

• Trend: Bullish continuation. Price has broken above late-September supply and is consolidating just under the 190–191 resistance zone after a sizable multi-session advance.
• Momentum: Constructive. RSI(14) ≈ 64 (bullish, not overbought). MACD positive and expanding on daily timeframe.
• Volatility/positioning: Daily range compressed near resistance; unfilled gap from today’s open indicates persistent demand. Risk/reward favors buying shallow pullbacks for a push toward 191–193 over the next 24 hours.

Data hygiene note

• Intraday tape shows a stray 177.52 print during 12:00/20:00 buckets without confirmation on the daily low (daily low = 188.26). This is likely a bad tick/errant dark pool print. Analysis ignores that anomaly and uses the daily low 188.26 as valid.

Price structure and market profile

• Higher highs/higher lows sequence since the 09/17 swing low (170.29) remains intact: HH 183.61 (09/22), HL 176.97 (09/24), HH 186.58 (09/30), HH 187.24 (10/01), intraday HH 191.05 (10/02).
• Supply/resistance: 190.7–191.1 (today’s R2 pivot/HH), then 193.0–193.2 (R3 cluster/psychological extension). Above that, round-number magnet 195.
• Demand/support: 188.2–188.6 (intraday shelf/VWAP neighborhood), 187.2 (10/01 close – gap top), 186.6 (09/30 close), 183.6 (09/22 close and prior breakout), 181.8 (09/29 close). The 183–184 zone aligns with a 38.2% Fib of the 170.29→191.05 leg.
• Volume: Upside sessions on 09/30 (236.9M) and 09/22 (269.6M) were heavy, signaling accumulation through resistance. Today’s pullback/consolidation occurred on moderate volume, typical of a pause near resistance.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 177.7 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~6.3% above the 20SMA; trend is strong but not excessively stretched.
• 50-day SMA (approx) in mid- to high-170s; price is comfortably above it, confirming an intermediate uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (approx) still lower (mid- to high-160s) given the multi-month advance; bullish long-term posture.
• Slope: 20SMA turning up sharply; 50SMA also rising—bullish alignment (20 > 50 > 200).

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Estimated ~64 based on the last 14 deltas—bullish, approaching but below classic overbought (70). This supports further upside with room to run.
• MACD (12,26,9): While exact values aren’t computed here, price posture (above rising fast EMAs) and recent acceleration imply MACD line > signal line, with a positive histogram—trend-following long setup.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely elevated but can stay high in bull trends; not a standalone sell trigger.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (approx): ~4.0–4.5. A 1×ATR move from 188.9 targets 192.9–193.4 on the upside and 184.4–184.9 on the downside. This brackets next-session expectations and aligns with pivot R3 ~193.2.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ 177.7; estimated std dev ≈ 5.8 → upper band ≈ 189.3, lower ≈ 166.1. Price is hugging the upper band (today’s high 191.05 pierced it), a hallmark of strengthening trend. A clean daily close above the upper band would confirm a momentum breakout; today’s near-band close suggests a high-probability continuation after brief digestion.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above the cloud; Tenkan (9-period mid) likely in the low 180s; Kijun (26-period mid) around high 170s. Bullish stack (price > Tenkan > Kijun > cloud). Chikou span is above price from 26 periods ago—trend confirmation.

VWAP and intraday structure (10/02)

• Opening gap up from 187.24 to 189.62 was only partially retraced to 188.26; the gap remained largely unfilled—bullish. VWAP hovered near 189.2–189.4; late-day close slightly below VWAP suggests mild profit-taking into the bell but no distribution.
• Intraday range compressed 188.5–189.9, building a shelf just below 190. This often resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend on the next session open or early hours.

Pivot levels (derived from 10/01 H/L/C = 188.14/183.90/187.24)

• Pivot P ≈ 186.43
• R1 ≈ 188.95 (settled near this zone)
• R2 ≈ 190.67 (tested/briefly exceeded today)
• R3 ≈ 193.19 (next objective on a momentum extension)
• S1 ≈ 184.71; S2 ≈ 182.19

Fibonacci mapping (170.29 low → 191.05 high)

• 23.6%: ~186.1 (near 09/30 close) → first pullback buy zone
• 38.2%: ~183.1 (aligns with 09/22 high/volume node)
• 61.8%: ~178.2 (deeper, unlikely in the next 24h unless risk events hit)

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 170.29 → 183.61
• Wave 2: 183.61 → 176.97
• Wave 3: 176.97 → 191.05 (ongoing/near completion)
• A shallow wave 4 (sideways to 186–187) followed by wave 5 push toward 195 would fit. For the next 24h, extension toward 192–193 is consistent with a late-wave 3 or early-wave 5 thrust.

Candlesticks and patterns

• 10/01: Strong green close near high (bullish marubozu-lite). 10/02: Small-bodied candle/spinning top just under resistance—typical pause day after a run. In prevailing uptrends, this often precedes a continuation breakout if the next session takes out 190.2–191.1.

Relative and breadth context (qualitative)

• NVDA has been a leadership stock; the late-September tech rebound saw strong NVDA participation with above-average volume, indicating positive relative strength versus broader tech.

Risk management mapping for a 24-hour tactical trade

• Bullish base case (∼60%): Early dip into 188.2–188.6 gets bought; reclaim of 189.6 leads to a break through 190.7 (R2) and a run toward 192.5–193.2 (R3) into the next close.
• Neutral/consolidation (∼25%): Range holds 187.8–190.7; closes ~189–190. Net drift higher but without decisive breakout.
• Bearish alternate (∼15%): Full gap-fill to 187.24; if 186.6 breaks on volume, slide to 184.7 (S1) possible. This would not negate the larger uptrend but delays the breakout.

Why Buy vs. Sell for the next 24 hours

• Momentum and trend alignment: Price above rising 20/50/200 SMAs, RSI supportive, MACD positive.
• Structure: Unfilled gap and tight consolidation under resistance favor a push higher rather than immediate reversal.
• Targets align: Pivot R3 (∼193.2) coincides with 1×ATR to 1.1×ATR extension from current levels—reasonable within one session.
• Risk containment: A pullback entry near 188.5 offers defined risk to ~186.6/187.0 with upside toward 192.8–193.2, yielding attractive short-term R:R.

Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Seek a limit buy on a minor pullback to 188.5 (near intraday support and slightly below VWAP). If the market gaps over 191 and holds, momentum traders could chase on strength, but the optimal planned level remains 188.5 for best R:R.
• Profit target (next 24h): 192.8 (just shy of R3 193.2 to improve fill odds). If momentum accelerates, consider scaling out 192.2–192.8, but the defined exit for this plan is 192.8.
• Invalidation (contextual, not a hard stop here): A decisive break and hold below 186.6 would warn of a deeper retrace toward 184.7–183.1.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy dips. Expect a breakout attempt through 190.7–191.1 with a reasonable shot at tagging 192.5–193.2 in the next 24 hours.