NVDA Coiling Under 190: Buy the 186 Dip for a Breakout Push Toward 191.8

Step 1 – Context and recent path

• Instrument: NVDA (USD). Current price: 187.62 (near today’s close). Trend from mid-Sept has been decisively up, advancing from the 9/17 swing low 170.29 to a 10/2 high 191.05 before a modest pullback on 10/3 to an intraday low 185.38 and a recovery close near 187.62.
• Structure since 9/17: higher highs and higher lows. Key highs: 177.33 (9/10), 183.61 (9/22), 186.58 (9/30), 188.89 (10/2 close), 191.05 (10/2 high). Key higher lows: 174.88 (9/16), 170.29 (9/17), 176.24 (9/18), 176.67 (9/19), 178.19 (9/26), 181.85 (9/29), 185.38 (10/3).

Step 2 – Trend assessment across timeframes

• Daily trend: Up. Price is above short- and medium-term moving averages (see Step 3). The sequence of higher highs/lows and successful defenses of pullback zones confirm buyers in control.
• Intraday (hourly) 10/3: Opening strength to 190.36 faded, then a controlled selloff to 185.38, followed by steady dip-buying back to 187.6–187.7 into the close. Price reclaimed roughly half the intraday range and held above the session pivot area (near 187.8), indicating demand absorption and a balanced-to-bullish close.

Step 3 – Moving averages (approximations from provided closes)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 178.7. Price at 187.6 is +5.0% above, signaling strong short-term trend. Slope positive.
• 50-day SMA ≈ 174.5–175.0. Price is well above; slope positive. 20>50>100 alignment indicates a healthy uptrend.
• Short EMAs: 5-EMA ≈ 186.9; 10-EMA ≈ 184.9. Price sits above both after bouncing from the 10-EMA zone, typical of a bullish trend respecting shallow pullbacks.
• Implication: Trend-following systems remain long; pullbacks toward 185–186 are likely bought while the 10–20 day averages rise.

Step 4 – Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 60–64: Bullish but not extreme. This supports trend continuation with room to run before classic overbought (>70) conditions.
• MACD daily: Line above signal with a positive histogram; momentum cooled slightly on 10/3 but remains constructive. This is consistent with a bull flag/pause rather than a trend reversal.
• Stochastic (daily) nearing mid-to-high range; a fresh %K crossover up from neutral would favor a new push toward/through 190–191.
• Hourly RSI oscillated from overbought at the morning high down to the mid-40s at the trough, then recovered to ~50–55 by the close, showing intraday rebalancing rather than a trend break.

Step 5 – Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 4.7–5.0. Expect a typical next-session range of roughly 4.5–5.0 points.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ≈ 178.7. Recent upper band sits near the high-180s to ~190; price has been riding/hugging the upper band since 9/30. The 10/3 close just under/near the upper band after a lower-tail recovery is a classic continuation posture.
• Implication: Riding the upper band during an uptrend often precedes further gains; brief mean-reversion downticks are dip-buys until the band walk fails decisively.

Step 6 – Volume, OBV, and VSA read

• Volume crescendo on the 9/30 thrust (236.9M) followed by slightly lighter but still healthy volume 10/1–10/3. Pullback 10/3 occurred on moderate volume with a close off the lows, suggesting supply was absorbed.
• OBV (qualitative from data) is making higher highs alongside price since 9/17, confirming accumulation.
• VSA: 10/3’s wide range down bar with close well above mid-range and follow-through stabilization indicates buyers stepped in near 185–186. That character supports continuation rather than breakdown.

Step 7 – VWAP and intraday posture

• 10/3 session VWAP (approx) clustered around 188.5–188.8. Close at 187.6 is modestly below VWAP after reclaiming much of the selloff; typical behavior is an early attempt next session to retest/resolve near VWAP. If price reclaims and holds above VWAP early, odds favor a push to the prior high zone (190–191).
• Anchored VWAP (qualitative) from the 9/17 low would sit below current price; maintaining above that anchored VWAP underpins the uptrend.

Step 8 – Fibonacci mapping (swing 9/17 low 170.29 → 10/2 high 191.05)

• Range: 20.76.
• 23.6% retracement: ~186.15 (191.05 − 4.90). Price tested 185.38 and closed back above 186–187; shallow retrace respected ⇒ bullish.
• 38.2%: ~183.12. 50%: ~180.92. 61.8%: ~178.71. These cluster with prior supports (181.85–183.6 and the 20-SMA ~178.7), forming a layered demand staircase if deeper pullbacks occur.
• Extensions on breakout above 191.05: 127.2% ≈ 196.4, 138.2% ≈ 198.3, 161.8% ≈ 203.5 (for medium-term reference; near-term focus is 191–193).

Step 9 – Classic floor pivots (using 10/3 H/L/C = 190.36/185.38/187.62)

• Pivot P ≈ (190.36+185.38+187.62)/3 = 187.79.
• R1 ≈ 190.19; S1 ≈ 185.21; R2 ≈ 192.77; S2 ≈ 182.81.
• Price closed just below P; path-of-least-resistance next session is a probe of P and R1. A sustained hold above R1 opens a test of 191.0–191.1 (recent high cluster) and potentially R2 (~192.8).

Step 10 – Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Tenkan (~183–185) and > Kijun (~177). Bullish TK cross remains intact. Price is well above the cloud; Chikou above price. Cloud model firmly bullish; pullbacks to the Tenkan are buyable in trends like this.

Step 11 – Candles and patterns

• 10/1: strong close near highs; 10/2: new rally high 191.05 and strong close 188.89; 10/3: long lower shadow with recovery (hammer-like intraday behavior) and a small real body. This sequence often marks a bullish pause/flag as late profit-taking is absorbed.
• Micro pattern: A 2–3 day bull flag/ascending channel consolidation just under 190–191. Compression below resistance typically precedes a range expansion move.

Step 12 – Market structure and S/R map

• Resistance: 190.19–191.05 (R1 and prior high zone). Above that: 192.7–193.0 (R2/round-number magnet) and 195–196.5 (fib ext cluster; secondary, not primary for next 24h).
• Supports: 187.8 (pivot), 186.15–186.5 (23.6% fib / prior intraday reaction area), 185.21 (S1/pivot math), 183.1–183.6 (38.2% fib + 9/22 close), 181.85 (9/29 close), 180.9 (50% fib), 178.7 (61.8% fib/20-SMA). The 185.3–186.5 band is first defense.

Step 13 – ADX/DI and Parabolic SAR (qualitative)

• ADX(14) rising into low–mid 20s with +DI > −DI: trend has strength but is not overheated.
• Parabolic SAR would sit below price after the multi-day uptrend; no stop-and-reverse trigger indicates the long bias persists.

Step 14 – Heikin-Ashi read (conceptual)

• Recent HA candles have upper bodies with small lower wicks until 10/3, where a lower wick appears but the close remained strong. Often this precedes either one more consolidation bar or an immediate resumption.

Step 15 – Risk/flow considerations

• Round-number gamma/psychology at 190: Expect choppy first attempts; a decisive 30–60min hold above 190.2 with volume would likely force a run at 191.0–191.1 and then 192–193.
• Dips to 185.4–186.5 have shown buyers; losing 185 cleanly would open 183.1; below 183, momentum longs likely reduce risk.

Step 16 – Probability-weighted next 24h scenarios

• Bullish continuation (55%): Early test of pivot/VWAP ~187.8–188.8, reclaim and push to 190.2 (R1), probe 191.0–191.1. If tape is strong, tag 191.8–192.2 before stalling.
• Range/consolidation (30%): 186–189 chop, repeated rejections near 189.8–190.2, with buyers defending 185.8–186.5. This still favors upside resolution within 1–2 sessions.
• Bearish fade (15%): Break below 185.4 leads to 183.6/183.1 test; would likely be bought initially, but this path delays any breakout.

Step 17 – Trade plan and levels

• Bias: Buy-the-dip in the 186.0–186.6 zone where multiple supports cluster (23.6% fib ~186.15, recent reaction low area, and just under pivot). This optimizes risk/reward with a clear invalidation below ~185.
• Entry: 186.40 (limit) is optimal relative to supports and expected early-session mean reversion.
• Target: 191.80, aligning just shy of the R2/upper resistance band and under the 10/2 high extension, capturing the expected push if 190.2 gives way. Risk/reward from 186.4 to 191.8 is ≈ +5.4.
• Alternative trigger for momentum traders (not the primary plan): Add/enter on a 30–60min hold >190.20 with volume; first objective 191.0–191.1, stretch 191.8–192.2.
• Invalidation (context for risk, not an order): A decisive break/30–60min hold <185.0 would negate the immediate bull setup and shift focus to 183.1.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• The evidence across trend, momentum, breadth of supports, and intraday absorption argues the 10/3 dip was a shallow retracement within an ongoing upswing. Expect an early attempt to firm above the pivot/VWAP band and a subsequent retest of 190–191. If 190.2 is reclaimed and held, a push toward 191.8–192.2 is probable within the session window. Preferred tactic: Buy near 186.4 with a target near 191.8. Overall stance: Buy.