NVDA: Shallow Fib Pullback Sets Up a Pivot-Dip Buy Toward 189

Executive summary and directional bias

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish. Expect a buy-the-dip around the daily pivot (≈185.37) with upside toward 187.4–189.3 if momentum confirms.
• Thesis: Shallow Fibonacci pullback (23.6–38.2%), higher-low structure, price above 20/50-day MAs, bullish Ichimoku alignment, and intraday VWAP recapture all point to continuation higher after a healthy reset. Key levels align: S1 ≈183.5 defended, R1 ≈187.4 likely first test, R2 ≈189.3 stretch.

Price action and structure

• Trend context (daily): Since 9/17 swing low (170.29) to 10/2 swing high (191.05), NVDA has been in a persistent uptrend. The subsequent pullback to 10/6 intraday low (183.33) is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement test (≈183.12), indicating a shallow corrective phase typical of trend continuation.
• Higher lows: 170.29 (9/17) → 176–178 cluster (late Sep) → 183.33 (10/6). Lows are stepping up while highs remain near 188–191; structure resembles an ascending consolidation below resistance rather than distribution.
• Candles: 10/6 daily prints a small real body with a lower tail (low 183.33, close 185.54), reflecting dip absorption near the 38.2% Fib and S1. Not an exhaustion bar; more akin to a testing bar with demand below 184.
• Gaps: 10/6 opened below 10/3 close (gap-down ≈2.1) and retraced part of the gap, leaving unfilled overhead to 187.62 that may act as a near-term magnet.

Key levels (confluence)

• Fibonacci from 170.29 → 191.05: 23.6% ≈186.15; 38.2% ≈183.12; 50% ≈180.67; 61.8% ≈178.22. Price closed between 23.6% and 38.2% after defending the 38.2% zone.
• Daily pivots (derived from 10/6 H/L/C = 187.23/183.33/185.54): P ≈185.37; R1 ≈187.41; S1 ≈183.51; R2 ≈189.27; S2 ≈181.47. 10/6 closed just above Pivot, making a dip-buy at/near Pivot attractive with clear guardrails (S1 and R1).
• Horizontal S/R: Support 183.9 (10/1 low), 183.6 (9/22 close), 181.5 (9/30 low), 176.5–178.5 (multi-day VPOC cluster). Resistance 187.3–188.1 (10/1–10/6 intraday highs), 188.9–191.0 (recent swing high area).

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ≈4.94, implying an expected 1-day range of roughly ±2.5% from the open. A move from 185.5 to 189.2 is ~3.7, within 0.75×ATR—reasonable for a 24h target if momentum expands.
• Intraday (10/6) hourly compressed around 185.5–186 with a quick liquidity sweep to 183.3 earlier; later sessions reverted near VWAP—classic volatility contraction after an early test.

Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA20 ≈179.58 (computed), price at 185.54 is ~+3.3% above—bullish short-term trend and room before mean reversion.
• SMA50 (approx) around 175–178 based on July–Sep close distribution; price is well above—intermediate trend positive.
• SMA100/200 (approximations) in mid- to high-160s/low-170s; price comfortably above—long-term trend intact.
• MA ribbon behavior: Short MAs stacked above longer MAs, indicating healthy trend structure. Pullbacks have been contained above rising 20/50-day lines.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈63.4 (computed). Bullish but not overbought; suggests momentum support for another push higher.
• Stochastic (14) ≈82% on close basis—near upper range, but after a minor pullback, stoch can embed in high zone during trends; not a sell signal by itself.
• MACD (qualitative): 12/26 EMAs likely above zero with a flattening histogram the past few sessions; mild consolidation rather than a bear cross. A higher close above ~187.4 should re-expand the histogram positive.

Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈179.6; upper band likely around 189–191. Price sits in upper half, with enough room to tag upper band on a push to 189–190 without major stretch.
• Keltner Channels: BB likely contracting inside Keltner midline post 10/2 high; a squeeze-like condition is forming intraday, increasing odds of directional expansion—trend bias favors upside given higher-timeframe context.
• Linear regression channel (20–30 sessions): Upward slope; price near median—probabilistic drift toward upper channel coincides with 189–191.
• Donchian (20D): Upper 191.05; lower near 167–170; current price closer to upper bound, consistent with trend-following continuation.

Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Price > Tenkan and > Kijun: Tenkan (9) ≈(HH+LL)/2 over last 9 ≈(191.05 + 173.13)/2 ≈182.09; Kijun (26) ≈179±. Price 185.5 > Tenkan > Kijun = bullish alignment.
• Cloud (Senkou Span A/B) likely in the high-170s; price above cloud with a bullish future cloud tilt—trend-confirmation signal.
• Chikou span should be above price from 26 periods back, reinforcing trend.

Volume and flow

• Volume pattern: Late Sep rally days (9/30–10/2) had strong volume; pullback days (10/3–10/6) saw comparable or slightly elevated prints but without structural breaks—suggests rotation, not distribution.
• OBV/AccDist qualitative: OBV likely near highs; minor downtick on 10/6 but no decisive break—accumulation trend intact.
• Intraday 10/6: Early weakness reversed toward VWAP; later hours saw balanced trade near 185.8. This is typical of absorption after a gap-down open, favoring an upside attempt next session.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (10/6) hovered ~185.8; close ~185.5 is marginally below/near VWAP—neutral-to-slightly-bullish if reclaimed early next session.
• Anchored VWAP from 9/17 low (170.29) likely sits around 181–182; price above this anchor indicates trend participants are in profit, encouraging dip buys.

Elliott wave and pattern read

• Impulsive advance from 9/17 to 10/2 (wave 1/3), followed by an ABC corrective dip terminating 10/6 near 38.2% retrace. If correct, a new motive leg should develop toward prior highs (188.9–191.1) before any larger-degree consolidation.
• Pattern: Ascending consolidation with flat-to-slightly-descending resistance at ~187.5–188.0 and rising swing lows—an ascending triangle variant. A measured break projects to high-189s initially, then 191.

Market profile and price acceptance

• HVNs (high-volume nodes): 176–179 and 185–186; LVN near 188. A move through 187.4 can traverse the LVN quickly toward 189 before encountering supply.
• Gap/statistical magnet: The 10/6 unfilled gap top at 187.62 aligns with R1 187.41/187.6—first objective/decision point.

Pivot and probability framework for the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55%): Early dip tests Pivot 185.2–185.5, buyers defend, push to R1 187.4–187.6, consolidation, then extension to 188.6–189.3 (R2). Close in the 187.8–189.0 range.
• Bullish extension (≈25%): Strong open above VWAP, quick reclaim of 187.6, momentum carry to 189.5–190.5; upper-BB tap near 190.
• Bearish alternative (≈20%): Loss of Pivot, flush to S1 183.5–183.2 (also near 38.2% Fib 183.1). If 183.1 fails, slide to S2 181.5–180.7 (50% Fib) before responsive buying. This path weakens the immediate long but preserves the broader uptrend.

Risk management and trade construction

• Entry logic: Place a limit buy near Pivot to exploit initial liquidity sweeps: 185.3–185.4. This is tight to intraday value and gives a defined invalidation under S1/Fib 38.2 (~183.1–183.5).
• Target logic: First resistance cluster 187.4–187.6; primary take-profit at 189.2 (R2 confluence and near BB upper). If momentum is strong, trail for a partial beyond 189.5 toward 190–191; however, the instructed single TP is set near R2 for high-probability capture within 1×ATR.
• Optional stop (not required but prudent): 183.2 (below S1 and Fib 38.2), risking ≈2.1 per share for ≈3.8 reward to 189.2; R:R ≈1:1.8. Tighter stops risk whipsawing in an ATR≈5 environment.

Corroborative indicators (secondary)

• Parabolic SAR (qualitative): Likely below price on daily after sustained uptrend—supports long bias.
• MFI (qualitative): With recent pullback on moderate volume and price still near top quartile, MFI likely mid-to-high 50s/60s—room to run.
• Heikin Ashi read: Recent candles would show smaller upper shadows after the pullback if trend resumes; a green HA close above ~186 would confirm momentum shift intraday.
• Camarilla pivots (qualitative): L3/L4 likely bracket 183–187; break above H3/H4 bands would target 189–190 quickly.

What invalidates

• A decisive hourly close below 183.3 and sustained trade under S1 183.5 would re-open the 181.5–180.7 pocket and delay the long setup by a session or two.

Bottom line

• The confluence of a shallow Fib retrace, defended S1, price > rising MAs, bullish Ichimoku alignment, and unfilled gap overhead favors a tactical long. Optimal entry is a limit buy on a minor dip to Pivot with a target near R2.

Actionable plan for the next 24 hours

• Buy the dip at/near 185.35–185.40.
• Target 189.20 for take-profit.
• Monitor 183.50 (S1) and 183.10 (38.2% Fib) as key support; loss of these reduces probability of same-day target.