NVDA: Buy the Dip Into 184s for a Push Toward 188–189 Within an Intact Uptrend

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy-the-dip) within a broader uptrend; expect 184–189 range with a lean to re-test 187.9–188.9.
• Plan: Place a buy limit near 184.6 (into support cluster) targeting a push back toward 188.9; invalidate on decisive loss of 183.3.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher time frame (daily, since mid-June): Clear primary uptrend from ~142 to a recent high ~191 (10/2). Price remains above rising 50/100/200-DMAs (est. 50D ~176–178; 100D ~170–172; 200D ~155–160), preserving bullish structure of higher highs/higher lows.
• Intermediate structure: Swing low 9/17 at 168.41 → thrusts to 191.05 on 10/2 → pullback holds above 38.2% Fib (~182.4). Current 185 sits above key retracement, consistent with a typical wave-4/handle-type consolidation in an ongoing up-leg.
• Near-term (last week): Breakout attempts 9/30–10/2 up to 191 got sold; pullback to 185–183 area shows dip buyers defending. Today’s session printed an upper-wick rejection from 189.06 but held the 184.4–185 shelf.

2. Support/Resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: • 185.0–185.5: Today’s closing zone and round-number shelf; multiple intraday re-tests held. • 184.4: Today’s intraday low; part of a 184–185 demand band seen 9/26–10/1. • 183.3: Classic S1 from today’s pivots (calc below) and near local base; loss opens 182.4. • 182.4: Daily 38.2% retrace of 168.41→191.05; high-probability bounce area if tested.
• Resistances: • 186.17: Daily pivot (P); intraday magnet; reclaiming suggests buyers in control. • 187.93: R1; first upside objective next session. • 188.9–189.1: Prior swing close/high zone; supply reappeared today. • 190.8–191.1: R2 and prior cycle high; breakout gateway to 195.

3. Classical pivots from 10/7 (H=189.06, L=184.405, C=185.04)

• P = (H+L+C)/3 = 186.168
• R1 = 187.931; S1 = 183.276
• R2 = 190.823; S2 = 181.513 Interpretation: Current price below P but well above S1; probabilistic mean-reversion favors a test of P→R1 if 184.4–185 holds early.

4. Fibonacci framework (swing 9/17 low 168.41 → 10/2 high 191.05)

• 23.6%: ~185.8 (today oscillated around this; explains sticky chop)
• 38.2%: ~182.4 (key structural line in the sand)
• 50%: ~179.7; 61.8%: ~177.1 (deeper pullback targets if risk-off) Interpretation: Respect for 23.6–38.2% zone suggests shallow corrective behavior within a bullish impulse; favors dip-buys over chasing.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): ~55–58 after retreat from overbought; constructive above 50, leaves room to push to 60–65 on a bounce.
• RSI (hourly): ~45–50; slight bullish divergence vs. morning lows as price held 184.4 while momentum stabilized.
• MACD (daily): Still positive but histogram contracting; depicts consolidation, not a trend break. A turn-up from the zero-line on 1h would catalyze the push toward 188–189.
• Stochastics (1h): Rotating out of oversold; supportive for a near-term bounce into the daily pivot.

6. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.0–4.5. Implies a typical next-session envelope of ~±4 around the close (181–189). Our target at 188.9 sits within 1x ATR and below R2, improving hit probability within 24h.
• Keltner channels (20,1.5xATR est.): Price mid-upper band on daily; pullbacks to midline have been bought through September–October.

7. Bollinger Bands (20D, est.)

• Middle band ~179–180; upper ~187–189; lower ~170–172. Price oscillates just under the upper band, consistent with a bullish grind. A tag/reject of the upper band today led to mean reversion; next attempt can pierce toward 189–191 if breadth firm.

8. Volume, VWAP, and tape

• Volume: Distribution spikes near highs (9/30–10/2) met by strong dip-buying volumes on down days (9/22 and 9/30 notable). Today’s high-to-close fade showed supply at 189, but bids emerged at 184.4–185.
• Session VWAP (10/7, est.): ~186.3–186.6. Last trade ~185 sits below VWAP; a re-cross above VWAP tomorrow is the trigger toward R1.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): Net positive slope since mid-September, modest pullback the last three sessions; no breakdown.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Span A > Span B; trend intact.
• Tenkan (conv.) ~186; Kijun (base) ~179–180. Price modestly under Tenkan now; typical scenario is a reclaim of Tenkan then drift toward recent highs as long as price stays above Kijun.

10. Price patterns and market structure

• Breakout-retest behavior: 9/30–10/2 breakout toward 191; 10/3–10/7 retest toward 184–185. Today’s long upper wick suggests sellers near 189–190, but higher low vs. 10/6 maintains a constructive base.
• Potential bull flag/handle: Flag range roughly 183–189 after the 9/30 surge. Resolution above 189 opens 190.8–191.1, then 195 measured move (not a 24h target, but context for upside bias).
• No confirmed double-top: The 10/2 high exceeded 10/1; today failed below those highs; pattern remains a consolidation, not a reversal.

11. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 168→183, Wave 2: 183→176, Wave 3: 176→191, Wave 4: 191→183–185 zone (ongoing), Wave 5 objective: 191–195. Sitting mid-wave-4 with a bounce attempt favored; fits our 24h buy-the-dip.

12. Quant levels and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early dip into 184.4–184.8 fills, reclaim daily pivot 186.17, extension to R1 187.93. Partial fade near 188; intraday high prints 188.5–189.0. Close 186.8–188.2.
• Bear case (25%): Early risk-off breaks 184.4 and S1 183.3; price tags 182.4 (38.2% Fib). Likely sharp bounce from 182.4 back to ~184–185 by close.
• Bull extension (20%): Strong open above P and VWAP squeeze; clears 188.9 supply and tags 190.8 (R2). Close ~189–190.5. Lower probability without a catalyst but within ATR+.

13. Risk management context

• Key invalidation: H1 close below 183.3 raises odds of full 38.2% test at 182.4; daily close below 182.4 would flip the next 24–48h bias from buy-the-dip to neutral.
• Liquidity pockets: 184–185 is a demand vacuum fill zone intraday; 188.9–191 is a supply shelf from recent highs—expect offers there.

14. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence long: Uptrend intact, shallow retracement holding above 38.2%, price near supports (184.4–185), pivots point to mean-reversion up toward 187.9–188.9, and ATR envelope makes the upside achievable within the next session.
• Execution: Use a buy limit near 184.6 inside the 184.4–185 support band. If price gaps up above 186.2 and holds VWAP, a momentum-entry alternative would be a stop-entry 186.25–186.35 targeting 187.9–188.9; however, primary plan is the dip-buy for better R:R.
• Target: 188.9 aligns with prior supply and sits just under R2; realistic within 1x ATR.

Expected path

• Overnight/premarket: Chop 184.6–186.0; buyers defend 184.4.
• Cash open: Probe to pivot 186.17; acceptance above turns on the squeeze to 187.9.
• Midday: Consolidate 186.7–187.7; late-day push tests 188.5–188.9.

Decision

• Action: Buy (Long position) on a dip.
• Open: 184.60 (limit).
• Close/Take profit: 188.90 (scale/exit).