NVDA Coils Beneath 190—Primed for a Liquidity Sweep Toward 191

Summary view

• Context: NVDA closed at 189.11 after probing 189.42 intraday, marking a continuation of the late-September rebound and a test of the 190–191 supply zone. The tape shows orderly pullbacks, rising structure, and building acceptance above 188.
• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a breakout attempt toward 191–192 if 188 holds on dips; failure there opens a quick mean-reversion to 187.3/186.8 support. I will treat 190–191 as a liquidity magnet and expect a test/partial sweep.

Data hygiene and anomalies

• Outlier check: 2025-10-08 20:00 bar shows a spurious 127.129 low. That is a clear bad print and should be excluded from any indicator calculations. All conclusions below ignore this tick.

Price structure and trend

• Market structure (daily): Since the 9/17 swing low (170.29) → 10/2 high (191.05), price has printed higher highs and higher lows. Pullback into 10/6–10/7 held above 183.3–185.5, forming a bull flag/ascending triangle under 190–191.
• Intraday (today): Opening drive to 189.42, midday balance 188.1–188.6, late-day lift back to 189.07–189.22. Value building above 188 suggests buyers absorbing supply just below the prior high.

Key levels (derived from recent sessions)

• Resistance/supply: 189.42 (today’s high), 190.36 (10/3), 191.05 (10/2). Clustered resistance 190–191.1; thin air above to ~192–193.
• Support/demand: 188.15/188.18 (intraday holds), 187.29 (pivot S1 calc), 186.6 (today’s open/spot support), 185.5–185.9 (10/6–10/7 lows), 183.3 (10/6 intraday low) as deeper line in the sand.

Pivot levels for next session (Classic floor)

• Using H/L/C = 189.42 / 186.54 / 189.11
• Pivot P ≈ 188.357
• R1 ≈ 190.173 | S1 ≈ 187.293
• R2 ≈ 191.237 | S2 ≈ 185.477
• R3 ≈ 193.053 | S3 ≈ 184.313 Interpretation: Price is closing just above P; expect early rotation between P (188.36) and R1 (190.17). A push through R1 favors a probe of R2 (~191.24). R3 (~193.05) is a stretch target only on a strong momentum day.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Short-term MAs: Price is above 9/10/21-EMA cluster (estimated 187.5–188.3). Pullbacks into that band have been bought for a week—bullish trend behavior.
• Intermediate trend: Price is above the 20/50-day MAs (approx centers near 181–183 and 177–180 respectively given the last two months of data). Slope positive on both—uptrend intact.
• 200-day MA: Not computable from provided window but contextually would be below given YTD performance; trend higher on multiple timeframes. Signal: Dip-buy bias as long as price holds above 187–188 MA cluster.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): Mid-to-high 60s; bullish but not overbought. Plenty of room for a marginal higher high before any meaningful bear divergence develops.
• Stochastic: Fast stoch likely 70–85 and rising; momentum “in gear.” In trends, overbought can persist—signals favor continuation over immediate mean reversion.
• MACD: Above zero with positive histogram since late Sep. No bear cross; bullish impulse remains.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~3.8–4.5. Today’s H-L ~2.88 was sub-ATR, suggesting there’s room for expansion next session.
• Bollinger Bands (20): Mid-band ~20DMA near 181–183; upper band ~188.5–190. Price is riding/peeking above the upper band—typical of trend days preceding short consolidations or continuation pushes. A controlled band walk is more likely than an immediate rejection, given supportive volume profile.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/above upper KC; confirms momentum regime—prefer breakout strategies with tight risk.

Ichimoku (qualitative from price action)

• Price > Cloud; Tenkan > Kijun, and span A > span B—bullish stack. Kijun support estimated ~182–184. As long as pullbacks stay above Kijun, the path of least resistance is up.

Volume, OBV, and profile

• OBV (qualitatively): Rising since 9/24; no distribution signature near highs—supports accumulation/markup.
• Today’s volume: Strong first hour, tapering into balance; late-day uptick as price reclaimed 189—bullish into the close.
• Volume profile (session): Value area concentrated 188.2–188.6 with multiple rejections of 188.1–188.2. This creates a nearby demand shelf; acceptance above 188.6 increases the probability of testing 190.2 (R1) and 191.2 (R2).

Price patterns

• Ascending triangle under 190–191 with higher lows since 10/3; this pattern typically resolves upward if resistance is tested multiple times (we have 10/2, 10/3, and today’s 10/8 tests).
• Bull flag from 10/2 high to 10/7 lows broken upward today intraday; measured move targets a retest of 190.36/191.05.
• Candlesticks: A near bullish continuation day—small upper wick, body near highs. No bearish engulfing or shooting star signature at resistance yet.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 9/17 low (170.29) → 10/2 high (191.05): 38.2% ≈ 182.7; 50% ≈ 180.7; 61.8% ≈ 178.3. Pullback held ~185–186 (above 38.2%). That’s classic shallow retrace within a strong trend—bullish.
• Micro-swing 10/3 high (190.36) → 10/7 low (185.04): 61.8% ≈ 189.0. Today’s close at 189.11 is a clean reclaim of the 61.8% retracement—often a precursor to full retrace (~190.36) and then a marginal higher high sweep (~191.05).

Elliott/Wyckoff context (lightweight)

• Elliott: Impulse from 9/24–10/2 (wave 1), pullback 10/3–10/7 (wave 2), today beginning wave 3 of a smaller degree—targets exceed prior high modestly.
• Wyckoff: Phase D of re-accumulation beneath resistance; higher lows with repeated resistance tests imply an imminent SOS (sign of strength) through 190–191.

Intraday execution tools

• VWAP (session): Price held above/near VWAP through the afternoon and lifted into the close—bullish microstructure.
• Opening range: Early range expansion to high, then balanced; late-day strength suggests buyers in control into the next open.

Risk scenarios and invalidation

• Bull path: Hold above 188.3–188.6 (Pivot/POC) → reclaim 189.2 → break 190.17 (R1) → tag 191.24 (R2). Extension to 192–193 possible if broad market tailwinds.
• Bear path: Early rejection 189–190 coupled with loss of 188.3 leads to a liquidity sweep of 187.3 (S1). Below 186.6 turns session into a deeper mean-reversion toward 185.5 (S2). Invalidation of bullish thesis if sustained trade <185.5.

Catalyst awareness

• No event data provided. In absence of catalysts, technicals likely dominate; if headline risk emerges, expect volatility to push toward ATR extremes (R3/S2 areas).

Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Confluence: Uptrend on multiple timeframes, price acceptance above 188, successful 61.8% reclaim of the 10/3–10/7 downswing, and clustered resistance with liquidity sitting 190–191.
• Expectation: A dip-buy into 188.2–188.6 offers favorable R:R for a push into 190.2–191.2 within the next 24 hours. I favor a measured take-profit near pivot R2 (~191.24) given the supply shelf at 191.05.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry (limit buy): 188.40 near session P/POC support to improve R:R versus buying the breakout.
• Initial target (TP): 191.24 (pivot R2/just above prior highs), capturing the likely liquidity sweep and first resistance reaction.
• Risk guide (not required but prudent): Stop under 186.80 (below today’s structural support/EMAs). Approx risk ~1.60; reward ~2.84 → R:R ~1.8:1. If momentum is strong off the open, an alternative is a breakout add over 190.20 with a trail, but core plan remains buy-the-dip.

Bottom line: Buy the dip into 188s aiming for a 191.2 test in the next session; structure remains constructive unless 186.8 breaks.