NVDA: Buy the Retest — Dip Toward 191, Aim for 196–197 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24 hours): Mildly bullish continuation after a gap-up-and-fade session, with a preference to buy a pullback into 191–191.5 support for a push back toward 195–197.
• Expected range: 189.8–196.8 (approx. one daily ATR). Dip risk into the open gap down to ~189.1 if 190.6 fails; upside extension toward 197.2–199.1 if 195.3 breaks and holds.
• Plan: Buy the dip near prior breakout support (≈191.3) targeting a retest of today’s supply near 195–197. Use intraday structure (VWAP reclaim / higher low) to confirm.

1. Trend, structure, and key levels

• Primary trend (daily): Uptrend intact. Series of higher highs/higher lows from early September trough (~167) to today’s high (195.3). Recent break above the September/early October resistance band (187–191) with elevated volume confirms a regime shift to bullish control.
• Today (Oct 9): Classic gap-and-go open (open ≈192.28 vs prior close 189.11), early push to 195.30, then orderly fade to close ~192.57 on still-strong volume (182M). That is a bullish “breakout then retest” day rather than a failed breakout: price closed above all prior resistance closes and above the gap body.
• Market structure:
  • New resistance/supply: 194.9–195.3 (today’s intraday supply cluster and pivot R1 area).
  • Immediate support: 191.0–191.3 (intraday shelf), then 190.6 (daily pivot S1), then 189.1 (gap close from Oct 8 close), then 188.6 (23.6% Fib of 167.0→195.3 impulse).
  • Higher-timeframe support: 184.5 (38.2% Fib), 181.2–181.5 (50%/prior daily cluster), 177.7–178 (61.8%/20D mean area).
• Gaps: Open upside breakaway gap from 189.11 to today’s low 191.06 remains partially unfilled. Unfilled gaps in strong trends often act as magnets on soft opens and as springboards after tests; watch 190.6–191.1 as the “retest or fill” decision zone.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): mid-to-high 60s after a multi-session rally. Interpretation: bullish but not yet extreme. Room exists for further upside, though minor pullbacks are typical near prior supply.
• Stochastic fast/slow (daily): likely >70/80 and curling; short-term consolidation possible, but the primary message is momentum still positive.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive and rising; histogram recently expanded on the breakout and narrowed into the close (reflecting the fade). Bullish backdrop; the deceleration warns to buy pullbacks rather than chase into 195 unless it breaks cleanly.

3. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ≈4.0–4.5. Today’s true range ≈4.24, consistent with the recent expansion phase.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price has been riding/piercing the upper band for multiple sessions, a classic strong-trend signature. A tag-and-fade today suggests a short pause/mean reversion to the 5–10 day moving averages or mid-band on intraday timeframes before continuation.
• Keltner Channels(20,2xATR): Price probing or slightly outside the upper channel today; closes above the upper Keltner tend to resolve with shallow pullbacks inside the channel before the next leg up.

4. Moving averages and mean reversion context

• Short-term MAs (5/10 day): Rising, with price extended modestly above both. These should catch up on a 1–2 day consolidation or price pulls back to them (likely 189–191 zone over the next few sessions if consolidation deepens).
• 20-day SMA: Rising, roughly high 170s/low 180s; well below spot, confirming a powerful trend with support beneath.
• 50-day SMA: Rising and below the 20-day; classic bullish alignment (price > 20D > 50D).

5. Volume, breadth, and accumulation

• Volume: The breakout day (Sep 30–Oct 2 sequence) showed increasing volume on up days. Today’s elevated volume on a gap-and-fade still closed above key resistance, which favors “healthy pullback” vs. “exhaustion.”
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Rising since mid-September; no material distribution pattern evident. Today’s intraday fade registered selling, but not capitulative—more profit-taking into resistance.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): Heavy volume nodes between ~175–182 and ~184–188; relatively thin air above ~190. This implies limited overhead supply; once 195 is absorbed, upside can accelerate toward 197–200.

6. Intraday microstructure (hourly data)

• The first hour printed a wide bullish candle to 195.2, followed by lower highs and controlled drift back to 192–193, where buyers stabilized. No aggressive sell-off into the gap; VWAP likely sat near 193–193.5 for much of the session with late-day trades around/below VWAP. A reclaim of VWAP early tomorrow would be a constructive long trigger.
• Hourly support: 192.2–192.5, then 191.2–191.4. Hourly resistance: 193.8–194.5, then 195.0–195.3.

7. Fibonacci roadmap (swing 167.02 → 195.30)

• Range ≈ 28.28.
• 23.6%: ≈188.6 (first pullback support; near open gap zone).
• 38.2%: ≈184.5 (deeper retracement into prior balance).
• 50%: ≈181.2; 61.8%: ≈177.7. The shallow retrace so far supports an ongoing wave 3/5 impulse rather than a topping pattern.

8. Pivot levels for Oct 10 (classic; using H=195.30, L=191.06, C=192.57)

• Pivot P ≈ 192.98
• R1 ≈ 194.89; R2 ≈ 197.22; R3 ≈ 199.13
• S1 ≈ 190.65; S2 ≈ 188.74; S3 ≈ 186.41 Interpretation:
• Above P (192.98) intraday bias = long toward R1; a clean break/hold above 194.9–195.3 opens R2 ≈ 197.2.
• Loss of P and S1 (190.6) risks a gap fill toward 189.1–188.7 (S2 area) before buyers likely defend.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Leading Span A > Span B (green cloud), Conversion > Base, and price > both—textbook bullish configuration. Pullbacks to the Conversion/Base (typically ~5–10 day means) are buyable in strong trends.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From the September low, the current leg resembles an impulsive wave 3 with minor subwaves; today’s rejection at 195 may be a minor wave iv pause. Typical wave v projection from 191–192 base targets 196.5–199.0, aligning with R2–R3 and the psychological 200.

11. Candlestick and pattern reads

• Today’s daily candle: long-ish upper wick with a positive close above breakout levels. This is not a bearish engulfing or key reversal; it’s a “pause at resistance.” Often followed by an inside day or a shallow dip before continuation.
• Larger pattern: A bullish flag/ascending channel from late September that resolved higher. The current move looks like a breakout and first retest.

12. VWAP and anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP (today) likely around the low 193s. An early VWAP reclaim tomorrow after a dip is a high-probability continuation signal.
• Anchored VWAP from the 9/24 swing low (~175.4) should sit in the high 180s/near 190; price remains above, preserving the bullish bias.

13. Keltner/Bollinger confluence and squeeze–release dynamics

• The recent expansion out of a modest volatility compression is intact. Price hugging the upper Bollinger with Keltner overlap favors “buy-the-dip to mid-channel” tactics until we see a decisive close back inside the mid-Bollinger with momentum roll-over (not present yet).

14. DeMark-style exhaustion (qualitative)

• No clear 9/13 sequential exhaustion evident on daily closes yet; momentum extended but not exhausted. That supports “consolidation then continuation.”

15. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 191.0–191.5, stabilization above S1 (190.6), VWAP reclaim, then grind to 194.9–195.3 with late push toward 196.5–197.2 if 195 breaks. Close in the 194–196 zone.
• Bearish alt (25%): Weak open; loss of 190.6 leads to gap fill to 189.1–188.7 (23.6% Fib/S2). Buyers defend; choppy close 189.5–192.
• Bullish momentum alt (20%): Strong open above pivot; quick clearance of 194.9–195.3 triggers trend day to 197.2 (R2) with extension toward 199.1 (R3). Sellers fade near 199; close 196–198.

16. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Why buy-the-dip: Trend, breadth, and lack of overhead supply favor continuation. Today’s fade into the close tightened risk and created a nearby support shelf (191–192) for controlled entries.
• Optimal entry: 191.3 (limit) sits in the prior intraday demand shelf and above S1 (190.65). It captures the common “day-2 retest” without demanding a full gap fill.
• Profit target: 196.6 aligns with measured move/upper pivot cluster (R2 197.2) while staying just ahead of crowded 197–199 supply, increasing the probability of fill within 24 hours.
• Invalidation to watch intraday: A decisive break and build below 190.6 (S1) raises odds of a full gap fill to 189.1–188.7; momentum traders may wait for a fresh reclaim over 192.0 before re-engaging.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains up. Prefer buying a controlled pullback into 191–191.5 with a target into 196–197 over the next 24 hours. A breakout alternative is a buy-stop through 195.35 for momentum traders, but the pullback entry offers better reward-to-risk and higher expectancy given the current structure.