NVDA Coils at the Golden Pocket: Positioning for a Pop Toward 192

NVDA — Multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical dissection and 24-hour trade plan

Context and tape read

• Instrument: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 188.32 (as of 2025-10-13 21:00:05 UTC)
• Today’s intraday range (regular+extended aggregates from provided data): 190.11 high to 185.97 low; close ~188.32.
• Character: High-beta megacap with heavy institutional and retail flow; post-spike digestion after a sharp two-day volatility burst.

Price structure and trend (Daily)

• Medium-/long-term trend: Uptrend intact. Price > 50DMA and 200DMA estimates. Pullback since 195.62 (Oct 10 high) has thus far been a bull-flag-style digestion rather than a full trend reversal.
• 20-day SMA approximation: ~182.44 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 188.32 sits above the 20SMA by ~3.2% — near-term momentum constructive after a hard reset.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~177–178. Price > 50SMA by ~6%.
• 200-day SMA (est.): ~165. Price > 200SMA by ~14%. Structural uptrend remains intact.

Recent pattern anatomy

• Inside-day behavior: Oct 13 range (190.11/185.97) remains inside the massive Oct 10 range (195.62/182.05), classic post-event consolidation. Inside days often precede directional expansion; initial bias leans bullish while above key supports.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing Sep 29 low 181.85 to Oct 9 high 195.30):
  • 38.2%: 189.76; 50%: 188.58; 61.8%: 187.39; 78.6%: 185.23.
  • Today’s price sits between 50% and 61.8% (“golden pocket”), a frequent higher-low inflection zone. The intraday low 185.97 narrowly missed the 78.6% level and was bought.
• Gap dynamics:
  • Gap up Oct 13 from prior close 183.16 to open ~187.97 left an open gap below; partial gap risk remains to 183.16 if supports break.
  • The Oct 9 gap-up was fully retraced on Oct 10; a reset that often cleans weak hands and improves the base quality.

Support/resistance map (confluence-driven)

• S1: 187.39 (61.8% Fib), 186.94 (classic daily pivot from Oct 10 H/L/C), strong confluence band 186.9–187.4.
• S2: 185.23 (78.6% Fib) and today’s intraday low 185.97. Below here, gap-fill magnet at 183.16 (Oct 10 close) and then 181.85 (Sep 29 low).
• R1: 188.58 (50% Fib) and 189.76 (38.2% Fib). Layered supply 188.6–190.0.
• R2: 191.84 (Pivot R1 from Oct 10 H/L/C) and 192.07 (23.6% Fib), then 192.57 (Oct 9 close). Dense resistance 191.8–192.6.
• R3: 195.30–195.62 (recent swing highs), the major overhead supply.

Momentum and oscillators (Daily)

• RSI(14): Likely normalized to low/mid-50s after the Oct 10 flush; not overbought, leaves room for upside continuation.
• MACD: Histogram has cooled after the surge into Oct 9; signal remains above zero but flattening. Near-term momentum consolidation with potential to re-expand if price quickly reclaims 190–191.
• Stochastic RSI / Williams %R: Likely in mid-range, tilting upward from neutral — indicative of bounce potential but not yet stretched.
• ADX/DMI: ADX ~20 (est.) — trend strength moderate/weak after shakeout; +DI still likely above –DI but closer. A push over 191–192 would re-accelerate trend strength.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (daily): Elevated post-selloff, est. ~4.8–5.2. Implies expected daily move on the order of ±2.5%–3%. For the next 24 hours, a probabilistic range of ~186–191.5 is reasonable, with tail extensions to ~185 and ~192.5.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA ~182.4. Upper band ~193–195; lower band ~170–172 (est.). Price between mid and upper band, slightly below the upper half — room to re-test upper band region on a momentum push.
• Keltner Channels (20 EMA ± 1.5xATR): Mid ~182–183; upper ~189.5–190.5. Price hugging the upper Keltner boundary suggests short-term mean-reversion headwinds at 190–191 unless momentum expands.

Intraday microstructure (today’s 1h/30m from provided h-series)

• VWAP dynamics: Price closed near session VWAP ~188.3; balanced tape, neither strong accumulation nor distribution into the close.
• Liquidity pockets: Repeated tests and holds 187.7–188.0 during US session; buyers defended dips sub-188. Overhead offers appeared into 188.9–189.4.
• Order flow read: Post-open volatility spike faded into a tight equilibrium; suggests an appetite to buy pullbacks near 187.5–188.0 with measured risk.

Volume and money flow

• Volume: Oct 10’s high-volume liquidation (266M) marked a likely “clearing event.” Oct 13 volume (~151M by 20:00) is lower, consistent with consolidation and stabilization.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Likely flat to slightly positive on the session; not a blowout accumulation day but constructive relative to the pivot base.

Ichimoku framework (Daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid): ~188.8 (est.), price slightly below/near Tenkan — minor friction area.
• Kijun-sen (26-period mid): ~181–182 (est.), well below price — supportive of trend continuity.
• Cloud (Senkou A/B): Price remains above cloud; trend context bullish. A decisive reclaim above/hold over Tenkan would argue for a near-term pop.

Anchored VWAP references

• AVWAP from Oct 10 low (182.05): Likely runs through ~188–189 now; price oscillating around this anchor — a classic battleground. Holding above the AVWAP from the capitulation low favors buyers.
• AVWAP from Oct 9 high (195.30): Overhead, descending supply reference; will matter only if price pushes 191–193 first.

Elliott/wave structure (heuristic)

• Impulse from Sep 29 (181.85) to Oct 9 (195.30) resembles a wave-3 burst; the Oct 10 washout appears to have traced a sharp wave-4 reset toward the golden pocket. A measured wave-5 attempt could target 191.8–195.3, contingent on a fast reclaim of 190–192.

Wyckoff lens

• Oct 10: Selling Climax (SC) candidate with high volume and deep wick.
• Oct 13: Automatic Rally (AR) and Secondary Test (ST) behavior inside the big range. If 186.9–187.4 continues to hold, a Sign of Strength (SOS) can develop on a move through 190.5–191.8 with expanding volume.

Classical pivots (from Oct 10 H/L/C = 195.62/182.05/183.16)

• Pivot P: 186.94; R1: 191.84; S1: 178.27; R2: 200.51; S2: 173.37.
• Today’s balance around P=186.94 is constructive; a push to R1=191.84 is a logical magnet if buyers lift above 189.7–190.0 in the next session.

Donchian / breakouts

• 20-day Donchian high: ~195.62; low: ~168–170. Current price sits in upper half; no breakout yet, but a strong setup if price reclaims 192+ with volume.

Parabolic SAR (daily, qualitative)

• After the sharp Oct 10 slide, SAR likely flipped above and is now edging close; a daily close above ~190–191 would often trigger a bullish SAR flip and momentum chasers.

Risk map and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Upside bias while above 186.9–187.4 (pivot + 61.8% Fib). Expected range 186.2–191.8 with a bullish skew.
• Bull scenario (55%): Early dip into 187.4–187.8 gets bought; reclaim 189.7 leads to probe of 191.8–192.1 (R1 + 23.6% Fib + Oct 9 close). If volume expands, a wick into 192.5 is possible.
• Base/neutral scenario (30%): Chop between 187 and 190; inside-day continuation with VWAP pin around 188.3–188.8; no decisive resolution until later in the week.
• Bear scenario (15%): Break and hold below 186.9 leads to a fast test of 185.2–185.9; if that fails, gap-fill magnet to 183.2. This would delay the upside, not necessarily break the larger uptrend unless 181.8 fails.

Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence for a tactical long:
  • Golden pocket support: 187.39–188.58 (61.8–50% Fib) repeatedly defended intraday.
  • Classical pivot P = 186.94 just below; strong nearby invalidation level.
  • Price above 20SMA and 50SMA, in an established uptrend; inside-day digestion after capitulation day often resolves higher.
  • R1 magnet at 191.84 aligns with Fib 23.6 at 192.07 and Oct 9 close 192.57 — clean, visible target zone.
• Entry logic: Buy-the-dip toward 187.5–187.8 (just above the 61.8% Fib and pivot) to achieve favorable R:R versus a protective stop under 185.7–185.9 (below the 78.6% Fib and today’s low).
• Profit-taking: Scale out 191.8–192.1; if momentum is strong, trail for 192.5 extension; conservative traders fully realize near 191.9.
• Optional risk control (not part of the required fields but recommended): Stop ~185.8, yielding R:R ≈ (191.9–187.6) / (187.6–185.8) ≈ 4.3 / 1.8 ≈ 2.4:1.

Decision framework

• Given the confluence of supports in the 186.9–187.4 zone, VWAP balance, and trend context, the higher-probability tactical play for the next 24 hours is a Long (Buy) on a slight pullback with target into 191.8–192.1.
• Risk caveat: A decisive break and hourly close below 186.9 raises the odds of a deeper test to 185.2 and potentially 183.2; in that case, stand aside or reassess for a fresh long lower.

24-hour price prediction

• Bias: Mildly bullish.
• Expected trading range: 186.2 to 191.8, with upside tails to 192.5 if momentum expands and downside tails to 185.9 on stop runs.
• Catalysts: None specified, so technicals likely dominate. Watch opening drive relative to 187.5–188.0 and 189.7–190.0 for directional clues.

Bottom line

• NVDA is coiled at a golden-pocket confluence above the daily pivot. Favor buying a controlled dip toward 187.6, aiming for a push into the 191.8–192.1 resistance band within the next session. Maintain tight risk under 185.8 given gap risk to 183.2 if supports break.

Note: This is a technical analysis view for educational purposes only. Always size positions appropriately and consider your risk tolerance.