NVDA poised for a Fib-61.8% bounce: Pivot reclaim could fuel a run to 184 within 24 hours

Comprehensive, step-by-step technical read on NVDA (next 24 hours)

1. Market state and context

• Instrument: NVDA (USD)
• Current price: 179.83
• Session character: High-volume downside probe with a long lower tail and late-session recovery back toward 180. Intraday volatility elevated; price is oscillating around a key round-number magnet at 180.
• Time horizon for forecast: next 24 hours (one trading session ahead including pre/after-hours liquidity).

2. Multi-timeframe trend assessment

• Daily trend: Pullback within a larger uptrend. After the Oct 9 swing high near 195.30, NVDA sold off sharply (Oct 10 wide-range down), then chopped lower/high-vol regime. Price is now below the 20-day moving average but likely still above the 50-day, consistent with an intermediate uptrend undergoing a short-term correction.
• Intraday (hourlies from 10/15): Sequence of lower highs from the open into midday, then stabilization above 178–179 and a recovery toward 180–181. Buyers defended the 177–178 zone twice. That creates a tactical base with clearly defined support.

3. Price action and candlestick read

• Today’s daily bar (H 184.87, L 177.29, C 179.83) resembles a hammer/long lower shadow after a decline. This often signals downside exhaustion and sets up a reversal if the next session confirms with a push over the midpoint/high of the candle (watch 180.7 pivot and 181.5–182 range for confirmation).
• Hourly structure shows a spring-like action: a flush to 177.29 and a whip back above 179–180, indicating absorption of supply below 178.

4. Key levels (derived from recent highs/lows, pivots, gaps)

• Immediate resistance: 180.66 (daily pivot), 181.7–182.0 (intraday supply/VWAP cluster), 184.0–184.1 (R1/pinbar midpoint), 186.5–187 (late Sep/early Oct pivot zone), 188.2–188.3 (R2), 190–191 (round number and prior supply), 195.3 (swing high).
• Immediate supports: 179.2–179.0 (intraday micro shelf), 178.6 (hourly base), 177.3 (session low), 176.45 (S1 from pivots), 175.4–175.6 (Aug pivot), 173.1 (S2), 170.8 (early Sep pivot).

5. Moving averages (approximate)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 182.7 (computed from last 20 daily closes). Price is below this, suggesting a potential mean-reversion tailwind back toward 182–183 if support holds.
• 50-day SMA (approx) in the 176–178 area given the late-summer price base; price remains near/just above it. This positioning (below 20D, near/above 50D) is classic pullback-within-uptrend.

6. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (estimate): mid-40s to high-40s; no longer overbought, leaning neutral-to-slightly-oversold. This supports a tactical bounce case.
• Stochastics: curling up from oversold on the daily and on hourly, typically a short-term buy-timing signal when price has already printed a hammer-like candle.
• MACD daily: bear cross from early October highs with histogram contracting after the Oct 10 shock—early signs of bearish momentum decay. A stabilization near zero-line on hourly MACD is consistent with basing.

7. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 6–8 pts (recent ranges have been 7–10). Expect a 24-hour trading envelope roughly 176–186 around the current price.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Middle ≈ 182.7; lower band estimated ≈ 173–174; current price is above the lower band and below the middle band—typical mean-reversion area, with room to revert up toward 182–184.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing Sep 17 low to Oct 9 high)

• Swing low: 170.29
• Swing high: 195.30
• 38.2%: 185.74; 50%: 182.95; 61.8%: 180.16
• Current price 179.83 sits essentially at the 61.8% “golden ratio.” Initial bounce attempts off 180 are textbook. A stable hold/reclaim of 180.16 strengthens the reversal setup; next attraction points 182.9–185.7.

9. Pivot points (classic) using 10/15 H/L/C (184.87/177.29/179.83)

• Pivot (P): 180.66
• R1: 184.04, R2: 188.24
• S1: 176.46, S2: 173.08
• Price into the close was slightly below P; a push back above 180.66 flips the intraday bias to bullish, with 184.0 as the natural magnet/target.

10. Volume analytics and market profile feel

• Volume today ≈ 212M—elevated, indicating strong two-way activity. The long lower wick with heavy volume suggests seller exhaustion and responsive buying below 178.
• The 180 strike appears to act as a gamma/magnet level (common for NVDA). Expect pinning behavior near 180 with upward bias if dealers are short gamma and spot moves higher.
• OBV (qualitative): post-Oct 10 washout, OBV has stabilized; not a clear distribution footprint today given the intraday recovery.

11. VWAP and intraday structure

• Session VWAP hovered around 180–181. Price oscillated around VWAP late in the day and reclaimed it intermittently. Reclaims of VWAP with higher lows are constructive for a next-session push toward 182–184.

12. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price near the Kijun (~181–182) and below Tenkan (~184–185), with cloud still below price from the summer uptrend. Typical mean-reversion pullback to Kijun area; regaining Kijun then Tenkan often marks trend resumption.

13. Regression channel / trendline take

• A short-term descending channel from the 195 high has its lower boundary tested today and rejected. Price closing mid-channel favors a drift to the channel midline ≈ 182–183 next.

14. Gaps and magnets

• Small gap supply over 186–187; the first objective before any gap work is to recapture 182.9–184.1. The 180 level remains a psychological and dealer-flow magnet; once price is comfortably above it, momentum flows can quickly carry to 182–184.

15. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Bullish mean-reversion. Early dip toward 179–178.6 is bought; reclaim of 180.7 pivot triggers a push to 181.7–182.0, then extension to 183.5–184.0. Close in the upper third of the day.
• Neutral (25%): Chop around 179–181 with failed breakout attempts. Range compression ahead of a directional move the following day.
• Bear alternative (20%): Failure to hold 178.6 leads to a quick probe of 177.3 and possibly S1 176.5. If 176.5 breaks on volume, door opens to 175.4–173.1. Probability lower given today’s hammer-like rejection.

16. Risk management and trade construction

• Rationale for long: Confluence of 61.8% retracement at 180.16, daily hammer with elevated volume, support holds at 177–178, and price positioned below the 20D SMA (mean-reversion tailwind) but above/near the 50D (trend intact). Pivot recapture at 180.66 is a clean intraday trigger.
• Entry tactics: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit slightly below market where demand just showed (≈179.2) with contingency of adding on pivot reclaim (≈180.7) if the limit doesn’t fill.
• Targeting: First objective 183.5–184.0 (near R1 and prior supply shelf). Stretch objective 186.0–186.6 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (stop, for planning): A decisive break and hourly close below 176.4 (S1) would negate the bounce setup and pivot the bias to the bear scenario. That places risk ~2.8–3.0 points from a 179.2 entry. Reward to 183.9 is ~4.7 points (R:R ≈ 1.6). A runner toward 186 improves R:R to >2.2.

17. Probability-weighted path and forecast range

• Expected active range for next 24h: 177.5–183.8 (with upside tail risk to 186 on momentum). Baseline path: mild early weakness, then grind higher after pivot reclaim.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy-the-dip for a tactical long. Confluence of Fib 61.8%, hammer-like reversal, heavy-volume absorption at 177–178, and pivot structure favors a rebound toward 182.9–184.0 within 24 hours, provided 176.5 holds.