NVDA at the Golden Pocket: Post-OPEX Unpin Setup Targets 186.8 on a Bounce

NVDA multi-timeframe technical read-through (as of 2025-10-17 close, 183.22)

1. Tape and session context

• Today’s cash session: Open ~180.01, High 183.53, Low 179.80, Close 183.22 on elevated OPEX volume. Strong open-drive to R1, pullback to mid, and steady bid into the close. First hour volume ~52M confirms strong participation.
• After-hours print: A 20:00 UTC bar shows an anomalous 175.34–192.85 range (likely closing auction/crossed prints or data outliers around monthly OPEX). I treat that spike/sweep as noise; the continuous tape stabilized back near 183.
• Regime: Broad uptrend from June persists, but October saw a sharp pullback from the 195s. We are now basing just under the prior local mean.

2. Trend structure and moving averages

• Higher timeframe: From late June close 143.85 to October peak ~195.62, NVDA remains in a primary uptrend with higher highs and higher lows on the weekly/daily sequence.
• Daily SMAs (approx.): SMA5 ≈ 182.64, SMA10 ≈ 184.86, SMA20 ≈ 183.79, SMA50 ≈ ~179–180 (est.). Current 183.22 is back above the 5-day, fractionally below the 20-day, and below the 10-day. Interpretation: Very near the 20-day mean (magnet), with short-term momentum recovering (back over 5-SMA) but not yet fully reclaimed (10-SMA resistance overhead). Longer-term trend support still intact (above 50-SMA).
• EMAs/MA slope: 20-day flattening; 50-day rising. Short-term trend transitioning from corrective to neutral-to-positive.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Neutral mid-zone (approx. 48–52) after the pullback; ample room to the upside before overbought. This supports a bounce scenario rather than exhaustion.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Rebounding from lower-mid ranges, %K curling up through %D, a short-term buy cue.
• MACD (12,26,9): Line below signal after the correction, histogram contracting (less negative). A bull cross is plausible in coming sessions if price holds above the 20-day and pushes through 185–187.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated but contracting, around 5–6 points. A 24-hour move of ~2–5 points is probable.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near 183.8; lower band ~176, upper ~192 (est.). Price mean-reverted from lower band vicinity (10/14–10/15) and is now hugging the mid-band. Mean-reversion play favors a push toward upper-half of the envelope (185.5–188.0) if bid persists.
• Keltner Channels: Price is back inside the envelope after a brief expansion on 10/10–10/14; BB inside KC suggests post-spike normalization.

5. Market profile, VWAP, and intraday structure

• Intraday 10/17 built value in 182–183.5. Buyers defended 182s multiple times. VWAP (not explicitly provided) likely sat near 182.8–183.2 late-day, acting as a magnet/pivot. Expect early next session tests of VWAP with responsive buying above 182.

6. Volume analytics

• OPEX day volumes (10/17) were elevated, consistent with hedging flows. 10/10’s capitulative sell day (268M) washed out weak longs; subsequent sessions show stabilization with improving up-volume on 10/16–10/17. OBV/Accum-Distribution (qualitative) stabilizing; no fresh distribution signal today.

7. Candlestick and pattern read

• 10/14 long red bar, 10/15 small-bodied indecision, 10/16 green follow-through: a textbook morning-star-type reversal zone. 10/17 added confirmation with a higher close. This sequence favors further upside toward resistance layers.
• Gaps: 10/14 gap-down left an open window toward 188.3. Gap-fill magnets often draw price once balance is restored; the first leg would be 185.5–186.6, then 188.0–188.3.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low 9/24 ~175.4 to swing high 10/10 ~195.62: Key retracement levels land near 50% ~185.5 and 61.8% ~183.0. Current close 183.22 is sitting on the golden pocket area (61.8%). Reaction: We saw buyers defend this pocket two consecutive days. A bounce toward 185.5 (50%) and possibly 188 (38.2%/gap) is consistent with this map.

9. Pivots (classic, computed off 10/16)

• P ≈ 181.62, R1 ≈ 183.47, R2 ≈ 185.13, R3 ≈ 186.98; S1 ≈ 179.96, S2 ≈ 178.11, S3 ≈ 176.45.
• 10/17 tagged near R1 and closed just under it; the next logical pivot magnets are R2 then R3 if momentum persists. Our tactical target aligns with R3 (≈186.98).

10. Support/resistance map

• Support: 182.0–182.6 (intraday shelf + SMA5), 180.0 (round + multi-day pivot), 177.3–178.1 (10/15 low zone and S2 cluster), 175.4 (major swing low).
• Resistance: 183.8–184.0 (SMA20/mid-BB), 185.5 (50% fib + R2 vicinity), 186.9–187.0 (R3), 188.0–188.3 (gap-fill zone), then 190.0–191.0.

11. Indicator confluence and bias

• Bullish: Morning-star pattern, reclaim of 5-SMA, defense of 61.8% fib, stabilization above 182 shelf, ATR contraction after shakeout, gap magnet at 188, long-term uptrend intact over 50-SMA.
• Cautionary/bearish checks: MACD not yet crossed up; 10-SMA (≈184.9) overhead; 20-SMA (≈183.8) right above price could resist initially; lingering supply from 188–191.
• Net: Slight bullish skew over 24 hours with a path of least resistance toward 185.5–187.0, provided 182 holds on dips.

12. Probabilistic pathing (24h)

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 182.2–182.8 gets bought; push to 185.1–186.9 (R2–R3 zone). Close/print near 186 aligns with mean-reversion and pivot targets.
• Bear case (30%): Failure at 183.8–184.9, roll back to 181–180.5; buyers defend 180 and re-balance. This delays the upside but maintains the larger base.
• Tail (10%): Another volatility air-pocket (dealer flows unwind) briefly probes 178–179 before sharp reversal. Likely bought given structural supports.

13. Elliott wave lens (tactical)

• Post 10/9–10/10 selloff counts as an A-B-C into the 10/15 low (~177.3 intraday). 10/16–10/17 advance looks like wave 1 of a new micro-impulse; a shallow wave-2 pullback into 182s, then wave-3 toward 186–188 fits.

14. Relative and seasonal/context notes

• Semis leadership and NVDA beta suggest outsized moves vs QQQ/SOX when de-pinned post OPEX. With OPEX complete, unpin risk tilts toward movement away from max pain levels (likely around 180–185), favoring an expansion toward 186–188 early next week.

15. Risk management lens

• Expected move (1x ATR fraction over 24h): ~±3–4 points. A 4.2-point upside from 182.6 to 186.8 is within scope. If 180 breaks on a closing basis, the setup weakens materially.

Conclusion and trade plan

• Bias: Buy the dip into 182s, targeting 186–187 into the next liquid session. The confluence of 61.8% retracement support, morning-star confirmation, and pivot/Fib targets supports a tactical long.
• Entry (limit): 182.60 (retest of intraday shelf/SMA5 zone).
• Profit target: 186.80 (near R3/upper mid-zone and below gap wall at 188.3 to improve fill probability).
• Optional risk guard (not required but prudent): Stop around 180.40 (below round-number support and under S1 from 10/16), yielding ~1.2–1.4:1 R:R to target.

Forecast next 24 hours: Slightly bullish; expect consolidation-to-bid behavior with a test of 185.1–186.9 if 182 holds.

Note: This is a technical-analysis view based solely on the provided data and typical market microstructure around OPEX. Markets carry risk; size appropriately and reassess if 180 fails or if new catalysts emerge.