NVDA’s 180 Floor Is Thinning: Short the Lower High, Aim for 177

Executive summary

• Read: NVDA is compressing just above a repeatedly tested 180 floor, forming a short-term descending triangle within a broader uptrend. The balance of evidence for the next 24 hours favors an initial bounce into overhead supply (≈182–183) followed by another attempt at 180. A decisive breach of 180 opens a quick path toward 177 ±1, where multiple supports converge (50-day area, Bollinger lower band, prior volume shelf). Strategy: Sell a lower-high retest into 182.4 with a target near 176.9; invalidate above 184.6–185.0.

Price action and structure

• Higher time frame context (June → Oct): Strong multi-month uptrend from mid-150s to a 10/9 high at 195.30, followed by a sharp de-risking (10/10 close 183.16) and now a sideways-to-down consolidation.
• Recent swing map: • High 195.30 (10/9) → heavy sell-off 10/10 on 269M shares (distribution day). • Since 10/14, price oscillates around 180–183 with lower highs: 183.22 (10/17), 182.64 (10/20), 181.16 (10/21 close). Lows repeatedly near 179.8–180.0 (10/14–10/16, 10/21), forming a horizontal shelf. • Pattern: Descending triangle (lower highs, flat support ≈180). Typical resolution odds favor downside if the base is tested multiple times.
• Intraday (10/21): Open 182.78 → early dip 180.18 → VWAP fade; late-day prints show a quick sweep to 176.56 on relatively modest tape (possible liquidity probe), then a snap back to 181.16 close. This underscores liquidity voids below 179.8 and suggests stops are clustered under 180.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-DMA (approx): ~183.7 and gently rolling over. Price at 181.16 sits below the 20-DMA → short-term bearish bias.
• 50-DMA (approx): high-170s (≈177–178) and rising. Price remains above the 50-DMA → intermediate uptrend intact.
• 200-DMA (approx): well below (mid-150s/160s) → primary uptrend remains healthy.
• 8/21-EMA cluster: likely ~182/183; price is below this fast/medium cluster → intraday rallies into 182–183 face dynamic resistance.

Momentum

• RSI(14) (approx): mid- to high-40s, hovering below the 50 neutral line after the 10/9 peak and 10/10 washout → modest bearish momentum.
• MACD(12,26,9): Negative-to-flat spread and shallow negative histogram after the 10/9 top; momentum rallies have been failing beneath zero → sellers still control the short-term tape.
• Stochastic: Oscillating in mid-range and leaning down; no confirmed bullish reversal.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (approx): ~5.0. Expecting 1.0–1.5 ATR of movement over 24h is reasonable.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~183.7; estimated lower band ~176.7; upper band ~190.5. Price is below the midline and moving toward the lower band → bias to test 179–177 on weakness.
• Keltner Channel (20EMA, 1.5*ATR): Center ~183, lower rail ~175.5–176; price near the channel’s lower half → room to probe lower rail on a break.

Volume, VWAP, and participation

• Volume profile (recent): Heaviest activity clustered 180–182, creating a shelf. Repeated dips into 180 on decreasing volume suggests buyers defend, but each retest historically weakens support. If 180 gives way intraday with expanding volume, air pockets to 177 are likely.
• 10/21 VWAP (intraday, est.): ~181.8–182.1. Close below VWAP → sellers into the bell; any morning pop back to VWAP is a tactical short entry.
• Distribution: 10/10 was a clear distribution day. Subsequent up-days lacked follow-through and volumes have normalized or softened → no accumulation signature yet.

Ichimoku (conceptual read)

• Price below Tenkan (≈182–183) and near Kijun (≈181). Being below Tenkan while hugging Kijun is a soft-bearish configuration. Cloud ahead appears thin/flat around low 180s → little overhead “lift,” making it easier for price to slip if 180 breaks.

Fibonacci levels (from 195.30 high to 179.80 low)

• Post-selloff retracements failed beneath 38.2% (~185.7) and well below 50% (~187.6). Failure to regain 38.2% keeps the corrective bias intact.
• On a 180 breakdown, measured move from triangle height (~183.2–180 ≈ 3.2) targets ≈176.8. Fib 1.272 extension projects ~175.6 as a stretch target.

Pivot levels for next session (derived from 10/21 data: H=182.78, L=179.80, C=181.16)

• Pivot P ≈ 181.25
• R1 ≈ 182.69; R2 ≈ 184.23
• S1 ≈ 179.71; S2 ≈ 178.27 Interpretation: Expect initial gravitation toward P/VWAP. Sell interest likely appears in 182.7–184.2 (R1–R2 overlap with EMA20 region). Breakdown risk elevates below S1 (179.7) with acceleration toward S2 (178.3) and the measured 176.8.

Candlesticks and micro-structure

• 10/21 daily candle: Small red body with a downside probe; not a classic hammer/engulfing reversal. It reads like indecision under moving-average resistance, not a capitulation bottom.
• Multi-touch base: 179.8–180 tested multiple times (10/14–16 and 10/21). Repeated tests usually weaken support; a clean break often travels quickly to the next demand zone.

Regression/structure blend

• 30-session regression: still rising (primary uptrend). 10-session regression: sloping down. Price sits below the short-term regression midline → short-term pullback within a primary uptrend.

Scenario analysis (24h horizon)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce to 182.0–182.8 into the 8/21-EMA/VWAP band, then sellers fade the move; break of 179.7 triggers a slide toward 177.0 ±0.5. Close in the 177–179 zone.
• Alternative (30%): 180 holds again and price oscillates 180–183, closing near 181–182 without directional resolution (range-bound day).
• Low-probability squeeze (15%): Quick reclaim of 183.2 and sustained push through 184.2–185.0 forces short-covering, targeting 186–187.5. This would likely require a macro/stock-specific catalyst.

Confluences favoring a tactical short

• Pattern: Descending triangle with horizontal support ≈180; measured move ≈176.8.
• Moving averages: Price under 8/20-EMA and 20-DMA; rallies into 182–183 are sells until reclaimed.
• Momentum: RSI sub-50, MACD below zero → sellers retain initiative.
• Volatility bands: Room to the Bollinger lower band ~176.7; Keltner lower rail ~175.5–176.
• Pivots/VWAP: R1/R2 aligns with EMA resistance; close under VWAP implies supply overhead.
• Liquidity: Quick late-day sweep to 176.56 suggests thin liquidity below 180; continuation move could fill into that pocket again.

Risk management and execution plan

• Preferred entry: Short on a weak open pop into 182.4 (near VWAP/EMA cluster and under R1), where risk is tightly defined.
• Invalidation (stop): Above 184.6–185.0 (above R2 and near 38.2% retrace), where the short thesis degrades.
• Target: 176.9 initial (triangle projection and near Bollinger lower band). Stretch/runner: 175.6 (Fib 1.272) if momentum accelerates and tape is heavy.
• R:R (illustrative): Entry 182.4, stop 184.6 (risk 2.2), target 176.9 (reward 5.5) → ~2.5:1.

What flips the bias to bullish in the next 24h?

• A sustained recapture of 183.2 followed by acceptance above 184.2–185.0 on rising volume would negate the descending triangle, pull price back above 20-DMA, and open the door to 186–188 retests. Until then, overhead supply dominates.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Expect a fade of early strength into 182–183, renewed pressure on 180, and an intraday break toward 177 ±0.5. Probability-weighted path is lower with volatility around 1.0–1.5 ATR.

Bottom line

• Tactically bearish (short-term) inside a still-bullish primary trend. Favor a short-on-bounce with defined risk and a take-profit near 176.9 over the next session.