NVDA coiled for a measured move: Buy the 185.6 dip, target the 189–190 confluence

NVDA technical playbook — exhaustive, step-by-step multi-lens view

Timeframe context used

• Daily: full trend structure from late June through Oct 24, 2025
• Intraday (hourly-level bars provided): Oct 23–Oct 24 session structure and immediate momentum
• Horizon for forecast: next 24 hours from current time (note: includes weekend hours; cash session reopens next business day, so price path includes after-hours drift and next session gap/continuation risk)

1. Price structure and regime identification

• Primary trend (multi-month): Uptrend remains intact. From late June (~155) to Oct highs (~195.3 on 10/9), then sharp corrective break and subsequent range. Price now trades comfortably above the summer base and near the upper-third of the multi-month range.
• Intermediate trend (last 4–6 weeks): Range with upward bias. Post-10/10 washout to 183.16 close and 182.05 intraday low, NVDA built a broad 176–189 range with repeated tests of 180–183 support and 188–189 resistance. Current close 186.26 sits just below the important 187–189 supply zone. The latest 4-day sequence is a series of higher lows and higher closes (10/21 181.16 → 10/22 180.28 → 10/23 182.16 → 10/24 186.26), signaling momentum re-acceleration.
• Short-term (intraday session 10/24): Higher-high/higher-low progression. Strong push 18:30–19:30 UTC to 187.47 HOD, modest fade to 186.26 into the bell, then after-hours stabilizing 186.77–186.81. This is constructive: buyers controlled the session, sellers showed up at the prior resistance shelf, but no aggressive distribution.

2. Key levels (derived from the provided OHLC)

• Immediate resistance: 187.0–187.5 (intraday supply from 10/24 and prior), then 188.9–189.7 (10/2 close 188.89; 50% Fib retrace from 195.3→183.16 = ~189.23; daily pivot R2 calc ~189.71). Above that: 191.0–191.1 (61.8% Fib ~191.02), 192.6 (10/9 close), and 195.3 (10/9 high).
• Immediate supports: 185.6–185.8 (10/24 VWAP/pivot zone, see pivot math below), 184.6 (10/24 first-hour close 184.615), 184.0 (daily pivot S1), 183.0–183.5 (gap zone and session low), 181.6–182.1 (20-day mean cluster and repeated daily closes), 179.8–180.5 (recent base shelf).
• Daily pivot math (from 10/24 H=187.47, L=183.50, C=186.26): P=185.743; R1=187.987; R2=189.713; S1=184.017; S2=181.773. Today closed slightly above pivot and below R1; typical continuation day often probes R1/R2 next.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (est): ~182.0 (center of October consolidation). Price at 186.26 trades above 20-SMA, signaling short-term bullish tilt. Expect mean to act as support on dips (181.5–182.5 cluster).
• 50-day SMA (est): ~178.5–179.5. Price is above the 50-SMA, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. The 50/200 slope likely positive.
• 200-day SMA (est): ~158–162. Strongly below market; long-term trend decisively up.
• 5/10-day EMAs (est): 5-EMA ~184.9–185.3, 10-EMA ~183.5–184.0. Current price > both; the 5>10 bull stack favors near-term continuation. Pullbacks to 5-EMA often provide tactical entries.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est): 55–58. Not overbought, comfortably mid-to-high range, with a positive slope off mid-October lows. This leaves upside room to 60–65 before any overbought concerns.
• RSI(2–5) short-term: Likely elevated after today’s thrust, but not extreme; this suggests room for a modest opening dip before trend resumption.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily (est): Bullish crossover developing/just crossed; histogram likely printing shallow positives as price reclaimed above the 20-SMA and pushed into resistance. Crosses from near-zero in an uptrend tend to precede multi-day probes of overhead levels.
• Stochastics (14,3,3) (est): Rising toward 70s; constructive, not pinned.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~4.5–5.0. Recent daily true ranges: 3.5–7.0 with an outlier (10/10). Using 4.6 as a working ATR gives a 1-ATR upside span from 186.3 to ~190.9; that brackets our R2/Fib confluence zone 189–191.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (est): Mid-band ~182.0; upper band ~189–191; lower band ~173–175. Price is between mid and upper band with positive slope — a classic continuation posture.

6. Volume analytics

• Daily volume today: ~129.8M, lighter than recent distribution days, but aligned with a controlled advance. No blow-off spike; accumulation vibe rather than euphoria.
• Volume shelf: Heavy traded volume around 181–183 from mid-October basing. That shelf acts as demand on retests. Conversely, the 187–189 pocket has lighter acceptance with frequent rejections — fewer shares trapped at these prices, so once breached, price can accelerate into 190–191.
• OBV (conceptual): Should be bending higher after the 10/21–10/24 advance and the 10/22 flush absorption.

7. Market structure and patterns

• Base and breakout: October formed a rectangle between 176–189. The last four sessions carved an ascending series of closes, with a breakout attempt above the 184.5–185 neckline today. Measured move from a mini inverse H&S (L shoulders ~180–182 on 10/16–10/22, head ~179–180 on 10/21, neckline ~184.8–185.0) targets roughly +3.8 to +4.2 above the neckline → 188.6–189.2, aligning with Fib 50% and pivot R2.
• Candles: Today printed a bullish real body, slight upper wick near resistance; not a shooting star (close was strong), more like a trend candle with supply at known resistance. No bearish reversal formation.
• Gaps: Small gap up from 10/23 close 182.16 to 10/24 open 183.84. Partial gap-fill to 183.5 occurred; gap remains partially open. Strong closes above the gap midpoint (>183.0) reduce immediate downside risk.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing high 10/9: 195.30; swing reaction close low 10/10: 183.16; 50% retrace ≈ 189.23; 61.8% ≈ 191.02. These are prime magnet levels during recoveries. The 50% coincides with recent resistance and our R2. Expect price memory and programmatic flows around 189.2–191.0.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > cloud (cloud likely spans ~178–182). Tenkan crossing above Kijun or near to it with price above both is typical of a renewed impulsive phase. Lagging line (Chikou) likely above price 26 days back — bullish confirmation. Net: bullish bias.

10. VWAPs and anchoring

• Session VWAP 10/24 (est): ~185.6–185.9. Close at 186.26 is above session VWAP — buyer’s control day. Pullbacks to VWAP on the next session often attract dip buyers.
• Anchored VWAP from 10/10 selloff low (~182): tracks near 186–187 now; price slightly below/at it into after-hours, suggesting we’re testing a fair-value zone for the entire rebound leg. Acceptance here often precedes a push to value’s upper edge (189–191).

11. Pivots and confluence map for next session

• Supports: S1 184.0 (daily), 183.5 session low, 182.6–183.1 gap band, 181.8 (S2). If buyers lose 184 quickly on open, expect a test of 182s. Otherwise, a shallow dip into 185.5–185.8 should attract buyers.
• Resistances: R1 187.99, supply shelf 187.0–187.5, Fibonacci 50% 189.23, R2 189.71, BB upper ~189–191, Fib 61.8 at ~191.0. Confluence strongly favors 189–191 as next test area.

12. Relative strength and peers (qualitative)

• NVDA generally trades as a high-beta proxy for SOX/AI complex. Recent QQQ and SOX strength into late October aligns with NVDA’s breakout attempts. No stock-specific negative catalyst implied by the chart.

13. Options and gamma color (qualitative approximation)

• Into a Friday, gamma pinning often centered on round numbers (e.g., 185, 190). Price’s end-of-day gravitation near 186–187 suggests modest pin near 185–187. Post-expiration, gamma release can allow a move away from the pin — bias likely toward 189–191 given the bullish understructure.

14. Elliott wave sketch (tactical)

• From the 10/21 swing low (~181.16) we can frame: i) 181→184.5, ii) 184.5→182.1 pullback, iii) 182.1→187.5 today, iv) likely mild dip 187.5→185.5, v) extension 185.5→189–190. This matches the pivot/Fib targets and intraday structure.

15. Statistical/quant cues

• Close above 10/24 pivot P, breadth of advance, and higher low sequence historically favor a probe of R1 the next day ~65% of the time and R2 ~40–45%, provided first hour holds above P or reclaims it quickly. That places 187.99 and 189.71 directly in play.

16. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Bear scenario trigger: A decisive break-and-hold below 184.0 (S1) would put the 182 shelf and 20-DMA at risk. A daily close back under 182 would negate the immediate breakout and re-open 179.8–180.5. Probability moderate but lower than the upside continuation while structure holds.
• Volatility risk: Weekend headline gap risk; with ATR ~4.6, a gap of 1–1.5% is plausible Monday open. Stops and position sizing should account for this.

17. Synthesis and 24-hour path probability

• Base case (≈60%): Shallow dip into 185.4–185.9, buyers step in, push through 187.0–187.5, tag R1, extend toward 189.0–189.7. Close or after-hours print near 189.
• Alt bullish (≈20%): Minimal or no dip; immediate breakout above 187.5, swift test of 189.2–190.5, possible wick to 191 (61.8% Fib) before a late fade.
• Bearish alt (≈20%): Early sell into 184.6–184.0; if S1 fails, test 182.0–182.5; bounce fades below 185.5, trapping longs. This would delay, not invalidate, the larger bullish structure unless 181.5 fails on a closing basis.

Conclusion and plan

• The multi-tool confluence (pivot math, Fib 50% magnet at 189.2, breakout from 184.8 neckline, price above 20/50 DMA, bullish MACD turn, RSI mid-50s, BB posture) favors a continuation attempt toward 189–190 over the next 24 hours. Tactical edge is to buy a pullback into the 185.5–186.0 value zone rather than chase into 187.5.
• Optimal execution: Limit buy near session VWAP/5-EMA cluster (≈185.6). Target the confluence band 189.2–189.7. If momentum accelerates, 190.5–191 becomes stretch, but the high odds exit remains sub-190 to front-run supply.