NVDA’s Breakaway Above 200: Buy the Dip Toward 200 for a Push Into 206–208

Snapshot and context

• Ticker: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation). Currency: USD. Official daily close: 201.03 on 2025-10-28. After-hours print shows strength up to ~205.7 with a late mark around ~204.6, implying continued demand into the next session.
• Session profile (2025-10-28): Open 193.05, High 203.15, Low 191.91, Close 201.03, Volume 287.79M (well above recent average), wide-range bullish candle closing near the highs with strong follow-through after hours.

Trend and moving averages (multi-timeframe)

• Primary trend (daily): Uptrend resumption. After a multi-week consolidation in the 175–190 zone through mid-October, price broke above the 195–196 resistance band and the 200 psychological level on significant volume.
• 20-day SMA: Approx ~185.9 (price 201 > 20SMA by ~8%). Bullish slope.
• 50-day SMA: Approx high-170s/near 180 (price materially above). Bullish alignment 20SMA > 50SMA.
• Short-term EMAs (5/10/20, directional): Stacked bullish with price well above. Suggests momentum continuation rather than immediate reversal, though short-term overextension risk exists.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Estimated mid-to-high 60s (~66–68). This is strong momentum but not yet extreme; borderline overbought conditions that often precede either a brief consolidation or trend continuation when supported by volume.
• Stochastic (fast/slow): Likely in bullish upper regime (>80) after the breakout; supports continuation risk of a short pullback first.
• MACD (12/26/9): Histogram expanding and signal line crossing up after several weeks of chop. Fresh bull cross on rising volume generally tracks multi-day follow-through.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14): Estimated ~6.0–6.5. Today’s true range was large (≈11.24), lifting ATR. Expect a 1-day expected move roughly ±ATR around the next open.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA ≈185.9. Upper band likely near mid/upper 190s pre-breakout; price has closed above the upper band. Band expansion after a squeeze signals a potential trend leg; closing outside the upper band can invite a mean-reversion dip toward the band on the next session before continuing higher.

Volume and accumulation

• Volume: 287.8M vs recent average ~150–190M. This is a clear accumulation day (breakaway volume).
• Intraday profile: Higher highs/lows each hour, then a strong push into 199–203 zone; after-hours extended to 205–206. Broad-based demand, limited supply until the 205–206 pocket.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Both would be rising sharply given close near the high and high volume—supports institutional participation.

Structure, patterns, and market geometry

• Breakout structure: Ascending resistance around 195–196 from early October highs has been cleared decisively. The move above 200 with volume is a “breakaway” characteristic.
• Cup-and-handle / ascending triangle read: Multi-week basing from mid-September (~167–170 lows) through October, with repeated tests of 190–195. The breakout above 195–196 activates a measured move. Near-term measured objective from the base width (≈195–176 = 19 points) suggests room into the low-210s over several sessions; within 24 hours, a conservative fraction of that move is reasonable.
• Gaps: Small open gap remains from prior close (191.49) to today’s open (193.05); intraday low 191.91 did not fully fill it. A full gap-fill to 191.49 is a low-probability outcome in the immediate session unless the market turns risk-off; more likely, shallow pullbacks stay above 197–198 on first test.

Key support and resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate support: 200–201 (round number + breakout retest zone + prior close). Below that, 198.7 (classic pivot point), 197.0 (approx 23.6% retrace of 176.97→203.15 swing), 195–196 (breakout shelf) and 194.25 (S1) are layered demand zones.
• Immediate resistance: 205–206 (R1 205.49 + after-hours high ~205.7), then 209.9–210 (R2 and psychological level). Extension resistance: ~216.7 (R3) if trend accelerates on a trend day.

Pivot points (derived from H=203.15, L=191.91, C=201.03)

• PP: 198.70
• R1: 205.49
• S1: 194.25
• R2: 209.94
• S2: 187.46
• R3: 216.73
• S3: 183.01

Fibonacci analysis

• Swing: 176.97 (10/24 low) to 203.15 (10/28 high); range ≈26.18.
• 23.6% pullback: ~196.97 (strong first-dip support).
• 38.2%: ~192.88 (near the unfilled gap top 193.05), a deeper but still healthy retrace.
• 50%: ~190.06 (unlikely barring risk-off day). These levels align well with the pivot stack and prior structure.

Ichimoku (qualitative, daily)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Lagging span likely above price; forward cloud turning green. This is the most bullish quadrant of Ichimoku conditions, typically supporting buy-the-dip behavior.

Parabolic SAR / ADX (qualitative)

• Parabolic SAR likely flipped below price on the breakout, supporting a long bias.
• ADX rising from the teens into low 20s suggests a trend beginning to strengthen after a consolidation phase.

Hourly microstructure and VWAP

• Hourly sequence (10/28): Steady bid from 193→199→202. After-hours push to ~205–206 and a late print ~204.6. Buyer control on multiple timeframes; shallow hourly pullbacks were bought.
• Session VWAP estimate: Upper-190s (~197–198). Price > VWAP throughout the afternoon, reflecting persistent demand. A morning dip toward 199–201 would be a typical first pullback to rising intraday VWAP/5–10 EMA cluster on the next session.

Elliott/Wyckoff perspective (qualitative)

• Elliott: A new impulse (minor wave 3) may be initiating off the 176.97 pivot after wave 2 completed the consolidation—consistent with strong breadth/volume breakout behavior.
• Wyckoff: Post-accumulation Phase D breakout with a sign of strength (SOS) and potential last point of support (LPS) on the first pullback toward 198–201.

Expected path over the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55% probability): Early dip into 199.5–201.5 to retest the breakout shelf/round number, stabilization above PP (198.7), then continuation toward 205.5–207.5. Day closes near 205–207 if broader market is neutral to positive.
• Bull extension (≈20%): Shallow-to-no dip. Quick reclaim of 205.5–206 out of the gate, squeeze into 208–210 (R2/psych) with intraday wicks possibly tagging 210–211. This requires supportive macro tape or sustained NVDA-specific flows.
• Bear alternative (≈25%): Broader market weakness drags NVDA to a deeper retrace. First support fails (198.7), testing 197.0 (23.6% Fib). A full gap-fill to 193–192.9 only if risk-off accelerates; even then, buyers likely defend 195–196 on first touch given the volume-backed breakout.

Risk factors to monitor

• Macro/sector: QQQ/SOX sentiment; any unexpected macro headline could widen ranges and push toward deeper Fibonacci supports.
• Gap dynamics: Strong breakaway gaps can still retrace 23.6–38.2% before resuming; watch 197–199 zones for responsive buying.
• Overbought/extension: Close above upper Bollinger band implies either a consolidation day or a quick dip before continuation.

Trade plan logic and validation

• Bias: Long. The confluence of a high-volume breakout above multi-week resistance, positive momentum (MACD/RSI), bullish MA/Ichimoku alignment, and a favorable pivot/Fibonacci stack supports a buy-the-dip approach.
• Entry preference: Buy the pullback into 200–201 (limit), aligned with the psychological level, prior close, and just above PP 198.7. This locations offers supportive order flow and tighter invalidation.
• Alternative momentum add (not the primary order here): If no dip occurs, a breakout add above 205.9–206.1 toward 208–210 is viable, but that carries inferior reward/risk compared with buying the dip.
• Take-profit focus for next 24h: First objective near/just below R2 at ~209.9; tactically, taking into 206.5–208.0 captures ATR-sized move with higher fill probability. I set 207.2 as an attainable 1x ATR objective from a 200–201 entry on a neutral-to-strong tape.
• Risk management (informational): A protective stop can sit under 197.0 (23.6% Fib) or under 194.3 (S1) depending on risk tolerance. Under 194 sustainably would negate the breakout character near term and increase odds of a full gap-fill.

Summary and decision

• Next 24h directional call: Bullish with buy-the-dip preference.
• Optimal execution: Limit buy near 200.9 (in the 200–201 demand pocket). Target 207.2 within 24h. This aligns with pivot math (PP 198.7, R1 205.5, R2 209.9), ATR scope (~6), and after-hours strength stalling near 205–206 (first resistance). If the dip fails to materialize and price gaps above 205.5 at the open, consider the alternative momentum entry above 205.9 with tighter targets (206.8–208.5), but that is secondary to the chosen plan.
• Overall thesis: Volume-backed breakaway above 195/200 suggests continuation. Expect a controlled retest toward 200 followed by an advance into 206–208. The trade aligns with multiple confirming tools: trend, momentum, volume, pivots, Fibonacci, and intraday structure.