NVDA’s Breakaway Gap Holds: Buy the Dip Near 204–205 for a Run Back to 211–212

NVDA technical blueprint (as of 2025-10-29 21:00 UTC)

1. Price action and structure

• Context: After a strong multi-week uptrend from early July (~153) to late October, NVDA printed a breakaway gap on 2025-10-28, closing at 201.03 on heavy volume, followed by a high-volatility session on 10-29 with an intraday high of 212.19 and low of 204.78, then an after-hours whipsaw to 213.995 high and 199.2898 low before stabilizing near 207.04.
• Trend: Higher highs and higher lows since late September. The 10/28 gap propels price into a higher value area, signaling regime change from consolidation to trend continuation.
• Candlestick read (10/29): Small real body with extended intraday wicks (upper to ~212, lower to ~205) = indecision/spinning-top after a large impulsive day. Typical of a post-gap digestion day rather than immediate reversal.
• Gaps: 10/29 left an open gap vs 10/28 close (201.03 to 204.78). Unfilled gaps often attract price; this is a magnet zone if 203.8 breaks.

2. Volume and participation

• Volume expansion: 10/28 volume ~298M and 10/29 intraday/auction ~304M — a classic volume-climax on a breakout day followed by heavy digestion. This confirms institutional participation in the move.
• Read-through: Breakout + high volume = valid move. Post-gap consolidation with still-elevated volume usually resolves in the direction of the breakout after a brief mean reversion.

3. Trend/momentum indicators

• Moving averages (approximate): Price is well above the 20-day SMA (~185.1 by calculation of last 20 closes) and comfortably above the 50-day trend measure. Bullish alignment of short > long MAs. The distance to the 20-SMA is stretched (overextension risk short term, trend intact medium term).
• RSI(14), daily: Likely in upper-60s to low-70s (overbought zone), consistent with a strong up-move. Overbought in uptrends tends to mark strength, but it raises near-term mean-reversion risk.
• MACD, daily: Positive and expanding histogram consistent with a fresh bullish impulse. No daily bearish cross.
• Stochastic, daily: Near upper band, supportive of short-term digestion or rotational pullback rather than immediate collapse.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14), daily: Expanded (several dollars per day; recent ranges 7–11). Expect elevated intraday swings next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2), daily: Price pushed above the upper band on 10/28 and remained near/above on 10/29. This is a classic “band ride” potential but often precedes a brief reversion toward the 20 EMA on lower timeframes or at least the daily midline on intraday charts.
• Keltner Channels: Price near +2 ATR from 20EMA suggests stretched but not necessarily done — typical of gaps that pause then continue after a shakeout.

5. Key levels and confluence (derived from provided data)

• Resistance: 209.37 (intraday supply), 211.60 (R1 vicinity), 212.19 (session high), 213.995 (AH spike), 215.41 (pivot R2).
• Support: 208.00 (daily pivot P), 206.58–206.79 (intraday balance), 205.03 (intraday low), 204.78 (session low), 203.82 (pivot S1), 201.03 (10/28 close; gap top), 200.59 (pivot S2), 199.41 (Fib 61.8% from 212.19→191.49 impulse).
• Fibonacci retracements (impulse 191.49 → 212.19, range 20.70): • 38.2%: 204.28 (near 10/29 low zone and pivot S1) — strong confluence support. • 50%: 201.84 (near 10/28 close 201.03) — gap top support. • 61.8%: 199.41 — deep but still constructive retrace if tested.
• Classic pivots (H=212.19, L=204.78, C=207.04): P=208.00, R1=211.23, R2=215.41, S1=203.82, S2=200.59.
• VWAP/volume node: 10/29 price spent significant time around 206.5–208 with heavy prints — likely intraday VPOC neighborhood. Expect mean-reversion pulls toward 207–208 during rotations.

6. Intraday structure (hourly)

• Open drive up to 210.6 failed; sellers capped 211–212 repeatedly.
• Multiple tests of 206–207 held; buyers stepped in near 205–206 on each dip.
• The 20:00 UTC bar showed a liquidity sweep: spiked to 213.995 and flushed to 199.29, then re-centered ~207. Such sweeps typically cleanse stops and set up range equilibrium the next session.

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Breakaway gap on 10/28 with day-2 digestion (10/29) = bullish continuation pattern in many cases, but often after a partial gap-fill probe first (e.g., to 204–205, sometimes to 201–202) before resuming higher.
• Flags/channels: Short, shallow flag forming between ~205 and ~212. A break and hold above 211.2 biases continuation to 213.5–215.4. A break below 203.8 invites the gap-fill effort to 201–202.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price well above cloud; Tenkan and Kijun lag far below current price. This indicates trend strength but also extended distance from baselines — supports the dip-buy thesis rather than chasing strength.

9. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The rally from ~170s to ~212 appears impulsive (likely a wave 3 extension). A shallow wave 4 retracement toward 204–202 (38–50%) would be textbook before another push into 213–216+.

10. Statistical mean reversion lens

• Z-score vs 20SMA is elevated (price ~207 vs ~185 SMA). Short-horizon mean reversion within a broader uptrend suggests buying weakness toward support rather than buying strength into resistance.

11. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (50%): Early dip/probe to 204.3–205.5 (Fib 38.2% / pivot S1 confluence) holds; rebound toward 209–212. Failure to clear 212 likely caps the session; close in 209–211 zone.
• Bull case (25%): Quick reclaim above 211.2 (R1) and hold → push to 213.5–215.4 (R2) before end of session. Requires strong breadth and no macro headwind.
• Bear case (25%): Lose 203.8 decisively → gap fill toward 201.8–201.0; potential extension wick to 200.6–199.4 before responsive buying emerges. Likely closes back near 204–206 if this occurs (buying tails appear).

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Uptrend + volume-confirmed breakout + confluence support at 204–205 favors a buy-the-dip approach over chasing into 211–212 resistance.
• Optimal entry zone: 204.3 (Fib 38.2% = 204.28; S1 = 203.82; recent buyers defended 205). A buy limit slightly above this confluence balances fill probability and risk.
• Targets: First objective near 211.2 (R1) under known supply at 211.6–212.2 to improve fill odds. Stretch target if momentum accelerates: 213.5–214.5.
• Risk guardrail (not part of order fields, but essential): Invalidation below 200.6–199.4 (S2 / 61.8% retrace). Practical stop could be ~199.2 to account for volatility wicks. That yields an R:R ~1.2–1.5 to first target, higher if partials trail toward 213–215.

Bottom line and 24h call

• Bias: Buy the dip. Expect a rotational test of 204–205 early, then a recovery toward 209–212. Break and hold above 211.2 opens 213.5–215.4. Lose 203.8 and the gap magnet at ~201 likely engages before buyers step back in.