NVDA: Buy the Throwback — Defend $200 for a Rebound Toward $207

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Buy-the-dip within a strong uptrend after a high-volume breakout; expect a probe to complete the open gap near 201.0–200.0 followed by a bounce toward 205–208.
• Optimal plan: Place a limit buy near the gap bottom/38.2% retracement confluence (≈201.2). First resistance at 205–207; extended target 208–210 if momentum re-accelerates.
• Invalidation (risk line): Sustained break below 199.5 would open a deeper pullback toward 196–194.

1. Price action and structure

• Multi-week context: From early July through mid-September NVDA ranged 160–185 with multiple attempts to break higher. A decisive breakout started late September/early October, pausing around 190, then an explosive two-day surge on Oct 28–29 (close 201.03 then 207.04) on exceptional volume. Today (Oct 30) printed a gap-down/consolidation day closing 202.89, essentially a throwback toward the breakout area.
• Gaps:
  • Oct 28 gap up from 191.49 (10/27 close) to 193.05 (10/28 open) remains partially open (10/28 low 191.91 > 191.49).
  • Oct 29 gap up from 201.03 (10/28 close) to 207.98 (10/29 open). That gap has been largely retraced; today’s low reached 201.41 and an intraday spike to 200.63 on the hourly, leaving a small unfilled portion near 201.03.
  • The market often “magnets” to complete such gap fills; 201.0–200.0 is key.
• Intraday microstructure (hourly, 10/30):
  • Morning weakness followed by a liquidity sweep to 200.63, then a recovery close at 204.04 on the last print, showing responsive buyers defending the big round number (200) and reclaiming the 203–204 intraday pivot.
• Candle behavior: The last two sessions transitioned from a wide-range up day (10/29) with a long upper wick (sellers at 210–212) to a smaller red day with a lower shadow near 201–200 (demand response). This is typical of a post-breakout “throwback” rather than trend termination.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~187.6 (computed from last 20 closes), rising. Price at 202.9 is well above the mid-band, confirming an established uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~178–181, rising. MAs are bull-stacked (Price > 20SMA > 50SMA) – trend-confirming.
• Short EMAs (8–21): The 8-period average sits roughly in the mid-190s; NVDA remains above fast MAs, consistent with momentum trend intact despite the pullback.
• Implication: Favor pullback buys into support rather than chasing breakouts after a two-day surge.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (est): upper-50s to mid-60s after the surge; cooled slightly today. This is constructive—momentum positive but not overbought.
• MACD daily: Above zero with a recent bullish cross and expanding histogram into 10/29, minor contraction today; typical of a pause within a new momentum leg.
• Stochastics: Pulling back from overbought; room to re-cycle higher if support holds at 200–201.
• Takeaway: Momentum supports a continuation higher once the gap/200 test completes.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (recent): Expanded notably on 10/28–29 (7+ point daily range) and compressed slightly today (~4.8 pts). For the next 24h, expect a ±4–6 point swing.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ 20SMA ~187.6; upper band has risen toward the low-200s. Price pulled back inside/near the upper band after riding it—classic behavior for a strong trend entering a brief mean-reversion pause.
• Keltner Channels: Price remains in the upper channel; pullbacks to mid-channel (~196–198) are possible if 200 fails, but the first attempt should be defended.

5. Volume/participation

• Breakout volume: 10/28 (≈298M) and 10/29 (≈309M) were materially above average, signaling institutional accumulation into the breakout.
• Today’s volume (partial 10/30) still elevated versus quieter days, indicating active two-sided trade but with buyers stepping in near 200.
• OBV/trend inference: Uptrend in participation aligns with price trend—constructive for dips.

6. Fibonacci, confluences, and key levels

• Measured swing: 10/22 low ≈180.28 to 10/29 high ≈212.19 (range ≈31.91).
  • 23.6%: ≈204.66 (initial support; briefly lost intraday, then reclaimed late).
  • 38.2%: ≈200.00 (major confluence with round number + gap bottom ≈201.03).
  • 50%: ≈196.24 (deeper support if 200 fails).
  • 61.8%: ≈192.46 (near the prior breakout shelf 191–193).
• Anchored VWAP (10/28 breakout day, est): clustering around 203–205. Late-session reclaim toward 204 suggests a potential AVWAP recapture setup.
• Ichimoku:
  • Price above cloud;
  • Tenkan (9) approx mid-190s;
  • Kijun (26) low- to mid-180s.
  • A pullback to Tenkan is a standard check; current price remains above—bullish regime.

7. Support/resistance map

• Resistance: 205.0–207.0 (gap-down supply from today and pre-close pivot), then 210.0–212.2 (recent swing high/seller response zone).
• Support: 203.0–203.5 (intraday pivot), 201.0–200.0 (gap bottom + 38.2% Fib + round number), then 197.0, 195.0, and 191.5–193.0 (major shelf/backstop).

8. Pattern and wave framing

• Post-breakout throwback: Classic behavior to retest/approach the gap origin or 38.2% retracement before trend continuation.
• Elliott framing (heuristic): Impulse from ~180 to ~212 (Wave 3), present pullback as Wave 4 into 200–201, setting up a potential Wave 5 attempt toward/through 212 if sentiment/indices support.

9. Options/flow considerations (qualitative)

• Large round numbers (200, 205, 210) likely coincide with high open interest in weeklies. Gamma dynamics can pin price into 205 area on Fridays, or defend 200 on downside. The final hour reclaim toward 204 hints at a potential 203–206 pin with upside tails.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Early dip completes/retouches the 201.0–200.0 zone, finds buyers, and pushes toward 205–207 into the close as AVWAP/pivot is reclaimed.
• Bear case (≈25%): A decisive loss of 200 with acceptance below 199.5; momentum sellers press to 197–196 where 50% retracement resides; bounce from there likely, but timing slips beyond 24h.
• Range case (≈15%): Choppy 201–204 consolidation, closing near 203–205 awaiting broader market cues.

11. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Rationale to Buy:
  • Strong higher-timeframe uptrend with rising MAs and positive momentum.
  • High-volume breakout followed by a controlled, technically clean throwback into a dense support confluence (gap bottom + 38.2% Fib + round number).
  • Intraday evidence of buyers at 200 and a late-session reclaim of the 203–204 pivot.
• Entry: Place a limit buy near 201.2 to exploit any early gap-completion probe; this sits just above the gap bottom (201.03) while improving reward/risk from current 202.9.
• Profit-taking: First objective 205.5–207.5; use 207.5 as the primary take-profit targeting the supply zone from today’s open and yesterday’s close.
• Risk management (informational): Invalidation on sustained trade <199.5; that would shift control to sellers and risk a slide toward 196–194. A tactical stop could sit 199.4–199.0 to manage risk.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (trend posture, momentum, volume-backed breakout, and confluence at 201–200) favors a buy-the-dip approach. Expect a 24h path of a brief test toward 201–200 followed by a recovery toward 205–208. Use 199.5 as the line in the sand for risk control if managing the position actively.