NVDA Loses the $200 Handle: Setups Align for a 193 Gap-Fill Probe in the Next 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish drift with rallies sold; odds favor a gap-fill drive into 194–193 after failed retests of the $200 handle.
• Key inflection: $200.0–202.6 (psychological, 50% retrace, daily pivot R1). While below this band, sellers control the tape.
• Plan: Short failed bounces into 199.2–200.2 with target 193.2 (front‑run gap fill). If no bounce, breakdown add/trigger below 197.2.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: After the 10/28 breakout (close 201.03) and 10/29 thrust to 212.19, NVDA has retraced four sessions, closing 11/04 at 198.69, losing the $200 psychological level. The 10/29 daily candle printed a long upper wick (shooting star near prior ATH zone on this split-adjusted series), followed by lower highs/lows—classic post-breakout digestion transitioning toward distribution.
• Distribution day: 11/04 closed near the low on elevated volume (185.8M), completing a bearish follow‑through after last week’s climactic up‑volume. Close below the session VWAP and below the 50% Fib (202.62) confirms supply dominance.
• Gap dynamics: The 10/28 gap (10/27 close 191.49 → 10/28 open 193.05 → close 201.03) left an open gap from ~191.5–193.1. Today’s low 197.93 did not fill; typical post-gap behavior favors eventual gap‑fill test, especially after a close under the 61.8% retrace (200.37) and a session ending below $200.
• Intraday tape (today): Multiple lower-highs on 30–60m frames; repeated VWAP rejections; failed spike to 206.9 was faded fast (likely a liquidity sweep/news flick). Into the final hour, price was heavy, settling 198–199—bearish for the next open unless news reverses flows.

2. Levels, supports, resistances

• Psychological: $200 pivot (now resistance) with supply up to 201.5–202.6 (50% Fib + classical pivot R1 202.46). Acceptance back above 202.6 would weaken the near-term short case.
• Fibonacci from 10/28 low 193.05 to 10/29 high 212.19:
  • 38.2%: 204.88 (sold).
  • 50%: 202.62 (sold).
  • 61.8%: 200.37 (now lost). Next: 78.6%: 197.16 (break invites gap-fill).
• Classical pivots (using 11/04 H/L/C: 203.97 / 197.93 / 198.69):
  • Pivot P: 200.20.
  • R1: 202.46; R2: 206.24.
  • S1: 196.42; S2: 194.16. Confluence: S2 ~ gap-fill zone top.
• Nearby supports: 197.2 (Fib 78.6%), 196.4 (S1), 194.1–193.1 (S2 + gap top/bottom), 191.5 (10/27 close). Resistance: 199.8–200.5, 201.8–202.6, 206.2.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 5DMA ≈ 203.6: price below (short-term down momentum).
• 10DMA ≈ 195.9: price above (medium-term still constructive). A daily close <195.9 would mark further deterioration.
• 20DMA ≈ 190.1: price above (primary intermediate trend intact).
• 50DMA (est.) ≈ 180–182: secular uptrend intact; plenty of room for mean‑reversion without breaking trend. Interpretation: Short-term weakness within a still-bullish intermediate regime—a classic sell‑the‑rip setup over the next 1–2 sessions.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Mid-zone, roughly 48–52 pre-drop; today’s loss of 200 suggests an RSI midline rejection toward low‑40s near-term—bearish but not oversold, allowing continuation lower.
• MACD (12/26/9) daily: Positive but rolling over; histogram contracting toward zero after the breakout—momentum decelerating; risk of bearish cross if price stays <200–202 band.
• Stochastics: Sliding out of overbought into neutral; room to travel toward 20–30 before bounce risk increases.
• Intraday RSI (15–30m): Trended 35–45 into the close—seller control without capitulation.

5. Volatility/ATR/Bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~6.0. Today’s H–L ≈ 6.0, consistent with expanded volatility post-breakout.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline ≈ 190; bands expanded after 10/28. Price now in upper‑mid band on the way down from upper band: typical path is midline test if $200 remains resistance. That implies 194–191 probe over 1–3 sessions.
• Keltner Channels(20,1.5ATR): Center ~195–196; current price hugging the upper-to-center area and rolling down—room to test lower rail ~186–188 on a multi‑day horizon; for next 24h, centerline gravity supports 196 → 194 drift.

6. Volume/Market profile/VWAPs

• Volume: Spike on breakout (10/28–10/29), then heavy but lower on pullback until today, which re-accelerated. Today qualifies as a distribution day.
• Session VWAP: Closed below; repeated VWAP failures intraday signal sellers in control.
• Anchored VWAP (10/28 open 193.05): Estimated around ~200–201 given ensuing action; price now below/at this AVWAP, turning it into overhead supply.
• Volume profile (recent): HVNs around 180–182 (prior base) and emerging node 199–201; LVN ~196–197. Breaking the LVN usually accelerates to the next HVN (194–193 gap zone).

7. Ichimoku

• Price > Cloud; Kijun (26‑period baseline) ~182; Tenkan (9‑period) ~200. Price now below Tenkan but above Kijun: short-term bearish within medium-term bullish trend. A Tenkan retest from below often fails on first try, favoring continuation down toward the flat Kijun magnet over multiple sessions; near-term magnet is actually the gap/195–193 region.

8. Elliott / Structure count (heuristic)

• Impulsive wave up (10/21→10/29), followed by an ABC correction: A: 212→202.9 (10/29→10/30), B: 202.9→206.9 (11/03), C underway: 206.9→198.7 with potential C= A magnitude targeting ~202.9−9.0 ≈ 193.9 (aligns with gap and S2). Confluence supports 193–194 objective.

9. Fibonacci/time symmetry and mean reversion

• Deep retracement beyond 61.8% increases probability of full gap test. 78.6% at 197.16 is the last retrace before near‑round‑trip. A firm break of 197 opens 194–193 quickly within 1 ATR.

10. Candles and patterns

• 10/29 shooting star; subsequent lower highs; 11/04 large real body close near low—bearish continuation into next session. Daily body below 200 flips the $200 handle into resistance.

11. Correlation/flow context (qualitative)

• Semis and mega-cap tech often mean‑revert around macro headlines; absent a fresh catalyst, post‑breakout digestion usually proceeds to fill nearby gaps. $200 strike gamma likely heavy; under 200, dealer hedging can exacerbate downside toward S1/S2.

12. Tomorrow’s path (next 24h scenario mapping)

• Base case (~55–60%): Early bounce into 199.2–200.2 fails → slide through 197.2 → tag 194.5–193.2; intraday low prints near 193.0–193.5; afternoon stabilization 194–196.
• Alt 1 (~25%): Strong reclaim >202.6 (50% Fib/R1), then 204.9 test; sellers fade 205. If sustained >202.6 into close, short thesis weakens.
• Alt 2 (~15–20%): Flat open, quick flush to 196.4 (S1) then reflex to 199.5; chop 197–200 into the close.

Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for short: 15–30m acceptance above 201.8 and daily reclaim/close above 202.6. That would suggest the pullback ended; upside magnet 204.9–206.2.
• Expected adverse excursion: ~1–2 points on an optimal entry near 199.5; worst case into 202.5 (3 points) before invalidation.

Conclusion

• The confluence of: (i) loss of $200, (ii) close below 61.8% retrace, (iii) distribution-day profile under VWAP, (iv) LVN at 196–197 above a clear gap, and (v) short-term MAs turning down, supports a tactical short with target 193.2 within 24 hours.
• Optimal execution: Sell a failed retest of 199.2–200.2 (around prior VWAP/pivot), keeping a tight stop above 201.8–202.6, and cover into 193.2 ahead of the gap bottom to lock gains.