Sell the Rip: NVDA’s 200 Wall Looks Heavy — Targeting a Slide to the 61.8% at ~192

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Sell strength into 199.5–201.0 with downside follow-through toward 192–193. Expect an early bounce (gap-test) that fades.
• Optimal setup: Short a pop to ~199.8–200.5 (around R1/Ichimoku Tenkan/gap midpoint) targeting ~192.4 (S1/61.8% retrace confluence). Invalidation on sustained reclaim >203.2.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): NVDA broke out late Oct (to 212.19), then printed a gap-down on Nov 5, losing the 200 round and closing weak at 195.21. The primary trend remains up (above 50-DMA, likely above 200-DMA), but the short-term swing is corrective and has shifted to lower highs: 212.2 → 211.3 → 207.0 → 202.9 (today’s intraday top). This stair-step lower suggests supply dominating near 200–203.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear rejection from 200.63 → 202.92 zone, rollover through VWAPs, acceleration into 20:30–21:00 with a capitulation flush and swift rebound. The 21:00 bar shows a deep wick (low print 183.82 on the hour feed) and recovery to ~196, indicative of a stop-run/liquidity sweep, then stabilization below 200.

2. Key levels and confluence (why 199.5–201.0 is sell zone; why 192–193 is target)

• Gap mechanics: Nov 5 gapped down from 206.88 (prior close) to 198.77 open. Gap midpoint ≈ (206.88 + 198.77)/2 ≈ 202.83. Price rallied intraday to 202.92 (tagged/just pierced gap mid) and failed—textbook “half-gap fill then fade.” The unfilled upper gap remains a resistance overhang.
• Classic pivots (derived from H=202.92, L=194.86, C=195.21):
  • Pivot (P) ≈ 197.66; R1 ≈ 200.47; R2 ≈ 205.72; S1 ≈ 192.41; S2 ≈ 189.60; R3 ≈ 208.53; S3 ≈ 184.35.
  • Confluence: R1 ~200.5 aligns with today’s intraday supply and the psychological 200 handle. S1 ~192.4 aligns with Fibonacci 61.8% retrace (see below).
• Fibonacci swing (Oct 14 low 180.03 → Oct 29 high 212.19):
  • 38.2% ≈ 199.5; 50% ≈ 196.11; 61.8% ≈ 192.44.
  • Price rejected the 38.2%/R1 band (~199.5–200.5), closed just below the 50%, leaving 61.8% (~192.4) the natural next magnet if 196 fails.
• Prior horizontal pivots: 191.5–192.5 was a late-Oct pivot shelf; 200–203 is now a supply box (failed reclaim).

3. Moving averages and bands

• 10-DMA (approx): ~195.6. Today’s close ~195.2 is fractionally below, signaling short-term momentum turning down.
• 20-DMA (approx): ~189.9 and rising—primary pullback mean. Price still above it, but a test becomes likely if 192.4 breaks.
• 50-DMA (est): ~180–182 (from Sep–Oct pricing) well below—longer trend intact, room for corrective downside within uptrend.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2; est): mid ~189.9; upper ~202.9; lower ~176.9. Today’s high tagged the upper band (~202.9) and reversed—typical mean-reversion impulse toward mid-band over coming sessions. Near-term, expect a move to the 61.8%/S1 first.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 2×ATR; est ATR ~6–6.5): center ~189.9; upper ~202–203. Rejection at upper KC corroborates short bias down to midline in stages.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14, daily) est low-50s slipping toward 50—neither oversold nor overbought; room to fall.
• Stochastics: Bearish cross from elevated territory—supports further downside in the short window.
• MACD (daily): Histogram decelerating; signal lines likely curling from elevated positive territory, typical of a corrective phase following a strong run.
• DMI/ADX: +DI rolling under -DI on rising ADX would confirm a tradable downswing; price action is behaving that way even if we don’t plot exact values here.

5. Volume, OBV, and market profile

• Volume: Today’s selloff printed heavy volume during the late-session liquidation (notably 20:30–21:00). The intraday pattern shows distribution spikes at 199–202, indicating active supply.
• OBV/Accum-Distribution: Likely turned down over the last week as multiple closes came in the lower half of the day’s range; today a close near the low suggests distribution.
• Volume profile (recent): High-volume nodes near 199–200 (fresh supply) and 195–196 (battle zone). Below 195, the profile thins toward 192–193, favoring a swift probe to that area. Deeper node near 186–188 remains a bigger-picture target if 192 breaks, but that’s beyond the next 24h base case.

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid): approx ~200.3; Kijun-sen (26 mid): approx ~190–191.
• Price is below Tenkan (short-term bearish) but above Kijun (uptrend still intact). Typical behavior: rallies to Tenkan face supply and fade toward Kijun. That implies sell-the-rip into ~200 with magnet toward ~191.
• Cloud ahead still positive but flattening; flat Kijun around 190–191 often attracts price.

7. Intraday structure, VWAP, and mean reversion

• Today’s session VWAP sat near ~200 early, later descending; multiple failed reclaim attempts at 199.7–200.8 marked “last point of supply.”
• A sharp liquidation created “single prints” around 196–198 in the market profile—these are often revisited. Expect an early bounce that repairs 198–200 before new supply hits.

8. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Gap-down day, failure at half-gap, and close near lows—a bearish continuation context.
• Hourly: Long upper wicks near 201–203; decisive breakdown in the 20:30–21:00 window; a deep lower wick (stop run) then close sub-200. This typically yields a reflex bounce into resistance then continuation lower.
• Micro-structure suggests a bear-flag can form under 200.

9. Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Elliott: Likely wave-4 style pullback of the Oct advance. Ideal targets are 38.2–61.8% retrace; the 50% (≈196.1) gave way into the close; 61.8% (≈192.4) is next. After a completed ABC into 192, a later wave-5 attempt is plausible—but not a 24h concern.
• Wyckoff: Distribution at 200–203 produced a Sign of Weakness (SOW) under 200, and rallies into that zone are Last Point of Supply (LPSY) candidates.

10. Statistics and volatility

• ATR(14) daily est ~6.0–6.5. Expected next-day range from 195 is ~189–201. That brackets pivot S2 (189.6) and R1 (200.5), supporting the plan to sell near R1 for a move toward S1.
• Gap behavior: Large gap-downs that fill ~50% intraday and fail often see follow-through to S1 within 1–2 sessions. With P≈197.7, S1≈192.4 sits squarely in play within 24h.

11. Synthesis and path probability (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~60–65%): Early bounce repairs 198–200 (R1/Tenkan/38.2% fib), stalls 199.5–200.5, then rolls toward 194.5–196 first, extends to 192.4 ±0.3 by/into tomorrow’s session.
• Bull alternative (~25–30%): Strong reclaim >200.5; sustained >203.2 (gap mid + supply shelf) squeezes into 205.7 (R2). This would invalidate the short thesis.
• Bear acceleration (~10–15%): Weak bounce fails under 198; straight-line push to 192.4 and potential overshoot to 189.6 (S2) if broader market risk-off accelerates. Not base case but possible.

12. Trade plan (informational, not financial advice)

• Direction: Sell (short) strength.
• Entry: 199.8 (inside 199.5–200.5 supply band; near R1 and under 200 round). If aggressive, scale 199.2–200.8.
• Target: 192.4 (pivot S1 and 61.8% retrace confluence). Secondary extension 189.6 (S2) if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation: Close (30–60m) above 203.2 or daily reclaim above 203.2 with acceptance. That would open 205.7/208.5.
• Risk/reward: From 199.8 to 192.4 = 7.4 pts potential. Invalidation at 203.2 (~3.4 pts risk) gives ~2.2:1 R:R.

13. Why not buy the dip here?

• Momentum turned down beneath 200 with repeated supply swats; bounce likely but better used to position short given the confluence at 199.5–200.5 and clear downside magnet to 192.4. Longs become attractive only after a flush-and-hold of ~191–192 or a strong reclaim/acceptance >203.2.

14. Risk notes

• After-hours prints included a very deep wick to 183.8 on the hourly tape; treat as an anomaly/stop-run but be aware of liquidity pockets. Use hard stops.
• Event risk: No specific catalyst cited in the dataset; still, broad market swings can amplify moves. Position size accordingly.

Bottom line: Sell the rip into 199.5–200.5; target 192.4 within the next 24 hours unless 203.2 is reclaimed and held.

This is market commentary for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.