NVDA Hammer Reversal: Pivot-Bounce Setup Aiming at 190–194

Comprehensive multi-angle technical read on NVDA as of 2025-11-07 close (188.15)

Executive summary

• Setup: Capitulation gap-down, intraday liquidity sweep below prior swing low, and a hammer-type recovery into the close on heavy volume. That combination favors a short-term mean-reversion bounce toward 190–194 over the next session.
• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish with an expected early dip buy and a grind toward pivot R1/R2.
• Plan: Buy-the-dip toward 186–187 with profit-taking into 191–194.

1. Price action and structure

• Regime: After a strong late-October breakout to 207, NVDA corrected sharply this week with a gap-down today to 184.9 and a flush to 178.92 before recovering to 188.15. The day’s candle is a long lower wick/hammer-like bar near recent supports—classically a potential reversal marker.
• Liquidity event: Today’s low (178.92) undercut the prior swing low area (~179.7 on 2025-10-14), running stops (“bear trap”), then reclaimed the 180s and closed strong, suggesting selling exhaustion followed by responsive buying.
• Gaps: A significant gap remains from 11/04 close (198.69) to 11/07 open (184.90). Near-term, partial gap fill attempts commonly target the first shelf 190–193 before larger fills to 196–199.

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 190.0 (calc from last 20 closes ≈ 190.0). Price closed slightly below, implying near-term weakness but very close to mean.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 184.5–185.5. Price > 50SMA, reflecting intact intermediate uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (approx) in low-to-mid 170s. Price > 200SMA, LT trend still bullish. Interpretation: Pullback within a broader uptrend; price hovering between 20SMA and 50SMA suggests mean-reversion push toward 20SMA is likely after a capitulative day.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) (approx) ≈ 55. It has cooled from overbought after the 207 high but remains above 50 midline despite today’s washout—a constructive sign that momentum hasn’t fully flipped bearish.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely in/near oversold with a nascent %K > %D cross after the intraday reversal—short-term bullish.
• MACD: After peaking on the 207 run, the MACD line has been rolling over; histogram likely negative but narrowing after today’s late-session recovery. If price reclaims 190–192, a bullish MACD inflection is plausible. Interpretation: Momentum reset without full breakdown; setup favors a reflexive bounce rather than immediate continuation lower.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (approx) ≈ 5.5–6.5, expanding. Expect intraday swings of ±3–4 points around trend and daily ranges of 8–10 points possible.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): 20SMA ≈ 190; with recent realized vol, 2σ ≈ 4.8. Bands roughly 190 ± 9.6 → Upper ≈ 199.6, Lower ≈ 180.4. Today’s low at 178.9 poked below the lower band—an “outside” move that often mean-reverts back toward the mid-band over 1–3 sessions.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5*ATR): With ATR ~6, lower KC sits near 181; price wicked below and closed back above—another mean-reversion trigger. Interpretation: Volatility spike + lower-band breach + close back inside bands supports a bounce to the 20SMA (≈190) and possibly toward upper mid-channel (192–194) if buying continues.

5. Volume, flows, and VWAP

• Volume: 262.8M shares—one of the largest sessions in this window—typical of a capitulation day. The rally off the lows came on sustained demand, indicating responsive buyers absorbing supply.
• Intraday VWAP: Session VWAP hovered mid-180s; closing back above intraday VWAP shows buyers seized end-of-day control.
• Accumulation/Distribution (qualitative): Large lower wick on heavy volume leans accumulation; OBV likely stabilizing after early-day drawdown. Interpretation: Volume climax + VWAP reclaim + hammer-style close = increased odds of a reflexive upside day next session.

6. Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Tenkan (9): Likely ~191–193 following the recent surge and pullback.
• Kijun (26): Approx ~186–188. Price rebounded to close near/above Kijun—classic support/resumption area.
• Cloud: Still bullish/green from October breakout; price remains above the cloud or near its top. Lagging span should still be within price, not a bearish break. Interpretation: Bounce from Kijun with Tenkan overhead suggests magnet to 191–193 if buyers press.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing measured 10/14 low (≈179.7) to 10/29 high (≈207.04): Range ≈ 27.34.
• Key retracements from 207.04: 38.2% ≈ 196.6, 50% ≈ 193.4, 61.8% ≈ 190.2, 78.6% ≈ 185.5.
• Today closed at 188.15: below 61.8% but above 78.6%; intraday low briefly undercut the original swing low—an exhaustive probe. Interpretation: With 61.8% at ~190.2 and 50% at ~193.4, the first upside magnet is 190–191; extension targets 193–194. Failure to hold 185.5 (78.6%) would reopen 182/180.

8. Classical pivots for next session (using H=188.32, L=178.92, C=188.15)

• Pivot P ≈ 185.13
• R1 ≈ 191.34; R2 ≈ 194.53; R3 ≈ 200.74
• S1 ≈ 181.94; S2 ≈ 175.73 Interpretation: The confluence of R1 (191.3) with 61.8% fib (~190.2) and the 20SMA (~190) creates a strong near-term magnet/ceiling zone. R2 (194.5) aligns with the 50% retracement (~193.4) for an extended target.

9. Options/gamma color (qualitative)

• Round numbers (190/200) often host large open interest. After a heavy-volume reversal, a gamma “pin” near 190 is plausible into the next session, with upside skew if dealers need to buy into strength. This supports a drift toward 190–192, with sellers re-appearing closer to 194–196.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Impulsive move to 207 (wave 3/5), followed by an ABC corrective sequence. The hard undercut and immediate reclaim today suggest end-of-wave C. Next would be a counter-trend rally toward 0.5–0.618 retrace of the last down leg—i.e., 191–194.

11. Risk markers and invalidation

• Support: 186–187 (Kijun/late-day shelf), 182 (pivot S1/volume node), 180 (lower BB/KC zone), 178.9 (today’s low).
• Resistance: 190–191 (20SMA + 61.8% + R1), 193–194.5 (50% + R2), 198–202 (gap shelf), 206–207 (cycle high).
• Invalidation for the bullish bounce thesis: A decisive break and hold below 185.5 (78.6% retracement) that then loses 182 would weaken the setup and likely revisit 180/179 quickly.

12. Scenario map for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 186–187 gets bought; intraday push to 190–191.5; potential close near 191. If momentum sustains, extension tags 193–194.
• Bear case (15%): Early strength fails under 190 and rolls; break of 185.5 triggers stops to 182–181.9 (S1) and possibly 180 on a volatility spike.
• Bull case (25%): Strong open toward 191–193; consolidation then push to 194–195; stretch goal 196 if flows are supportive.

13. Strategy synthesis and timing

• Confluence for bounce: Hammer candle + outside lower-band tag + volume climax + VWAP reclaim + Kijun hold + RSI ~55 + pivot R1/Fibo/20SMA magnet at ~190–191.
• Execution plan: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 186.2–187.0 to improve R:R. First scale-out 191–192; secondary 193–194 (targeting fib 50%/pivot R2).
• If gap up above 190 at next open: Consider momentum entry on reclaim >191.5 with tight risk below 188.9, aiming 193–195. (Alternative plan if dip doesn’t fill.)

14. Risk/Reward math (illustrative)

• Entry 186.2, target 193.4 (+7.2). Risk to 181.9 (S1) is −4.3 → R:R ≈ 1.7:1, acceptable given setup quality.

Conclusion The evidence skews to a short-term reflexive rebound into 190–194 following a capitulative flush and hammer close. Optimal execution is to buy a controlled pullback into 186–187 and harvest into the 191–194 confluence.