NVDA coiled under $200: buy the pivot dip for a push into 202–204

NVDA – exhaustive multi-timeframe technical read and 24h game plan

What just happened (context and tape read)

• Daily structure (Jul → Nov): Strong uptrend through late Oct (10/28 gap-and-go to 201, 10/29 spike to 212), followed by a sharp early-Nov pullback to 178.91–188 zone and a powerful two-session rebound into 11/10 close at ~199. Price is now pressing a major confluence band just below 200–202 where supply previously capped rallies (10/31 close 202.49, 10/30–11/3 range).
• Intraday 11/10 (hourly): Opened strong at 195.1, dip-bought near 194.1–195.9, then stair-stepped higher each hour into a late-session push to 199.94. Close near highs (199.05–199.33) with steady buy pressure above session VWAP. Notable after-hours print shows a rogue 188.15 wick; treat as data anomaly versus true liquidity sweep.
• Volume: 11/10 elevated vs recent average (≈197M vs ~150–170M), confirming participation in the rebound.

Trend, momentum, and mean-reversion gauges

• Moving averages (approx.):
  • 5-day SMA ≈ 193.8; 10-day ≈ ~192; 20-day ≈ ~186–188; 50-day ≈ ~178–181. Price at ~199 is above all of these → bullish alignment/stacking, with short MAs curling up.
  • Slope: 5/10 EMAs turning up sharply; 20 EMA flattening-to-rising; 50 rising. Bullish short/mid-term.
• RSI (estimates): Daily RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s after two strong up days (room to run; not overbought). Hourly RSI pushed to high-60s/low-70s late session → short-term overbought, favoring a small early pullback before continuation.
• MACD: Daily lines curling up from below after pullback; histogram rising toward a bullish cross in the next sessions. Hourly MACD already positive and expanding during the afternoon leg.
• ADX/DI (qualitative): ADX stabilizing and starting to lift >20 with +DI over –DI → constructive trend resumption.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): Both turned up with price and volume; accumulation footprint into the close.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA near ~186–188; upper band around the high-190s. Price now kissing/just above upper band (~199), often prompting a brief mean-revert or band ride. Given breadth/volume, a band ride toward 201–203 is plausible after a shallow dip.

Market structure, supply/demand, and levels

• Key supports: 197.6 pivot (computed), 195.25 (S1), 194.1–195.9 intraday base, 193.79 (11/10 session low), 191.4 (S2), 188.1 gap origin (11/7 close), 186.38 (11/6 swing low), 178.91 (11/7 swing low).
• Key resistances: 200 round; 201.40 (R1); 202.49 (10/31 close); 203.74 (R2); 205.1 (78.6% Fib of 10/29H→11/7L); 206.9–207.6 (11/3 close, R3 calc); 212.19 (swing high).
• Volume profile (qualitative): Heavier acceptance 180–183; lighter-volume pocket 198–202 suggests that once 200–201 goes, price can traverse quickly to ~203–205 before hitting thicker supply 206–208.

Fibonacci and pivots (11/10 refs)

• Range 11/10: H 199.94, L 193.79, C 199.05 → Pivot P ≈ 197.59; R1 ≈ 201.40; S1 ≈ 195.25; R2 ≈ 203.74; S2 ≈ 191.44; R3 ≈ 207.55; S3 ≈ 189.10.
• Swing Fib (10/29 high 212.19 to 11/7 low 178.91):
  • Bounce retracement from 178.91: 38.2% ≈ 191.63 (cleared), 50% ≈ 195.55 (cleared), 61.8% ≈ 199.10 (exact current stall), 78.6% ≈ 205.10. A pause at 61.8% is textbook; a clean push/hold over 199.2–200 opens 202–205 fast track.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH+LL)/2 across last 9 → around mid-190s (≈195–196). Price above Tenkan → bullish. Kijun (26) near ~186–188; price above Kijun and above/near a thin cloud → constructive. Chikou would be near/above price, consistent with momentum restoration.

VWAPs and anchored views

• Session VWAP 11/10 sat ~196.8–197.2; price held above VWAP for the afternoon – dip buy behavior confirmed. An anchored VWAP off 10/28 gap likely sits around high-190s; current price oscillates just above/below that anchor—break and hold above 200 would start to drag anchors higher.

Candles/patterns

• 11/10 near-marubozu close at highs signals strong demand into the bell. The two-day rebound forms a bullish continuation from a V-shaped recovery. The unfilled 11/10 opening gap (relative to 11/7 close) leaves a gap window toward ~191–195 that may partially fill later in the week; less likely within the next 24 hours unless macro headline volatility spikes.

Elliott wave micro count (intraday)

• From 11/7 low: impulsive wave 1 into ~195, wave 2 intraday pullback to ~194, wave 3 into ~199.9, consolidating mini wave 4 flat ~198.6–199, leaving room for wave 5 probe into 201–203 early next session before an ABC down toward the pivot (~197.6–198.5) later.

ATR and expected move (next 24h)

• Recent daily ATR ≈ 6–8. From ~199, a one-day band suggests 193–205 typical range, with tails to S2/R2 plausible. Our pivot map (R1 201.4, R2 203.7) fits the ATR envelope; R3 207.6 is a stretch but not impossible on catalyst.

Probability map (base case vs alternates)

• Base case (55–60%): Small early dip to pivot zone 197.6–198.2, then push through 199.2–200 and test 201.4 (R1). If acceptance above 200.5, extension to 202.5–203.7 (R2) intraday. Close 202±1.
• Bull extension (20–25%): Gap/scalp over 200 off the open, shallow pullbacks hold >199.7, momentum squeezes through 203.7 toward 205.1 Fib; stalls below 206–207 supply.
• Bear fade (15–20%): Failure at 199.5–200 leads to a retrace to 195.2 (S1). Strong buyers reappear at 194–195. Break of 193.8 would increase risk of gap-fill toward 191.4 (S2), but this is a lower-probability outcome given current breadth/volume.

Confluence summary (why the bullish bias)

• Price > 5/10/20/50 SMAs; short MAs curling up.
• 11/10 strong close at 61.8% retracement with volume and momentum—often a staging area, not a terminal cap, when breadth supports.
• Clear resistance ladder with thin volume pocket 198–202 → good odds of follow-through if 200 holds intraday.
• Pivot confluence: P ~197.6 aligned with Monday’s VWAP area; attractive buy-the-dip zone for optimal R:R.

Trading plan and risk management (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy pullbacks toward the daily Pivot around 197.6 with invalidation below 195.2 (S1) and tranche add on breakout/hold over 200.2. Target the 202.5–203.7 band first, with stretch to 205.1 if momentum persists.
• Why open at 197.6: It’s the computed daily Pivot and sits atop yesterday’s VWAP cluster, offering a tactical entry with multiple nearby supports (VWAP shelf, intraday HLs, S1 below). This improves R:R vs chasing near 199–200 where immediate resistance sits.

Key catalysts/risks (non-technical)

• Macro headlines or large-cap tech flows can add gap risk. Watch for premarket index futures tone and any NVDA-specific news. Within pure technicals, watch acceptance above/below 200 as the intraday arbiter.

24h price path expectation

• Early test of 197.6–198.2 → buyers step in → reclaim 199.5–200 → probe 201.4 → drift/grind into 202.5–203.7. If early failure, expect protective bids at 195.2; break there would defer the long to lower levels (not base case).

Decision

• Direction: Buy (Long). Entry: 197.60 (optimal pullback into pivot/VWAP confluence). Profit target: 203.74 (R2 / upper objective within ATR and resistance ladder).