NVDA at the 0.618 fulcrum: positioning for a tactical bounce toward 197–198

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for NVDA as of 2025-11-11 close (last trade ~193.16)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (3–4 months): Strong primary uptrend from early Sep lows (~167) to late Oct highs (~212). After the late-Oct breakout spike, price entered a corrective phase with a sequence of lower highs (207 → 203 → 201 → 199) and a reaction low near 186–188. Structure now resembles a bullish primary trend undergoing a mid-cycle pullback/mean reversion within a wide consolidation band (~188–201).
• Intermediate (2–6 weeks): Range-building after the post-earnings/gap runs. Key range: support cluster 186–189; resistance cluster 199–203; midpoint around 195–196. Recent action shows buyers defended 188–189 (Nov 6–7), then a relief rally to ~199 (Nov 10), followed by today’s retrace to the 193 area. Net: chop within 188–201, with buyers active on dips and sellers layering near 195–200.
• Short-term/intraday (today): Session ranged ~191.3–195.4, closing ~193.2. Intraday attempted a midday grind up to ~194.6, failed at ~195, and faded into the close. Despite the fade, the session kept higher than last week’s reaction lows and maintained the broader 188–201 consolidation.

2. Support and resistance mapping (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: 193.0 (0.618 retrace of 188.1→201.0 swing), 191.3 (today’s low), 189.6–189.8 (approx 50% retrace of 167→212 leg; round-number shelf), 188.1 (Nov 6 close) and 186.4 (Nov 6 intraday low).
• Near-term resistances: 194.8–195.6 (38.2% retrace of 167→212 leg; intraday supply cap), 196.8–197.2 (prior congestion and minor swing), 199.0–201.0 (gap window/psychological), 203.0–207.0 (post-breakout supply, pre-pullback highs).
• Volume nodes: Heavy activity around 195–199 from late Oct/early Nov (supply), and around 188–190 from the shakeout (demand). An LVN-type pocket near 191.5–192.5 suggests fast moves can occur through this zone; acceptance back above ~194 should magnetize price toward 196–198 HVN.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• Very short-term: 5-SMA ≈ 192.7 (price ~193.2 slightly above), 8-SMA ≈ 196.5 (price below). This shows near-term mean reversion possible, but momentum cap remains overhead ~196–197 until reclaimed.
• Swing: The 20-SMA is likely around 189–191 (center of recent closes); price sits slightly above/near it, consistent with a consolidation pivot. The 50-SMA likely in low- to mid-180s and rising, indicating trend health. 200-SMA likely in mid/upper 160s and rising; long-term uptrend intact.
• Read: Short-term mixed/slightly bearish (sub-8SMA), medium-term constructive (above 20/50), long-term bullish (above 200).

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): By price behavior and ranges, RSI likely centered near 50±5 after rebounding from oversold last week. Neutral-to-slightly-positive if 191–192 holds.
• MACD (daily): Momentum cooled since the 212 peak; histogram likely contracting toward zero with potential to curl if price stabilizes above 191–192. A reset near the zero line often precedes trend resumption if support holds.
• Stochastics: Reset from overbought during the late-Oct run; now mid-zone. A turn up from mid-zone after a 0.618 retrace is a favorable dip-buy signal.

5. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) estimate: elevated, roughly 7–9 points. Expect next session’s probabilistic range roughly 191–200, with tails extending to ~189/201 if volatility expands.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near the 20-SMA (~190–191). Upper band likely near ~201, lower near ~179–181. Price is hovering near/just above the middle band, often a launch spot if momentum can reassert.

6. Fibonacci and harmonic confluence

• Major swing fibs (Sep low ~167.2 to Oct high ~212.2): 38.2% ≈ 194.8, 50% ≈ 189.6, 61.8% ≈ 185.2. Price is toggling around the 38.2–50% retrace zone, a classic corrective basin in strong trends.
• Minor swing fib (Nov 6 low ~188.1 to Nov 10 high ~201.0): 61.8% ≈ 193.0, 50% ≈ 194.6, 38.2% ≈ 196.0. Today’s settle around 193 aligns with a 0.618 pullback of the most recent upswing—typical buy-the-dip zone if trend persists.
• Harmonic/AB=CD symmetry: The Nov 10–11 decline leg magnitude approximates a proportional retrace to the 0.5–0.618 cluster; this adds confluence for a bounce attempt from 191.5–193.0.

7. Ichimoku lens (daily, conceptual)

• Price remains well above the cloud (cloud likely spans high-170s to mid-180s), sustaining the primary bull regime. Tenkan around mid-190s, Kijun around low-190s: current price is between them, a common equilibrium zone. Maintaining above Kijun (~191–192) biases for a Tenkan re-test (~195–196) and, if broken, a run toward 199–201.

8. Candles and gaps

• Last week printed a long lower-tail day near 186–188, signaling demand absorption. Monday (Nov 10) a strong white candle up to ~199; today’s pullback is a relatively orderly inside-to-slightly-outside day that retraced to fib support without breaking last week’s pivot.
• Gap dynamics: There’s an open gap region between ~188–195 from the Nov 10 jump. Today partially filled the upper gap zone; full gap fill would require a break below ~191 and continuation into ~188–189. The fact that it didn’t fill today and buyers held 191.3 intraday argues for dip demand; however, an early stop raid into 189.5–190 can’t be ruled out in tomorrow’s first hour.

9. Volume and flow

• Post-breakout distribution near 200–207 shows supply, but the heaviest capitulatory volume occurred around 186–190 on Nov 6–7, often a durable footing. Today’s volume concentrated during initial sell and late-day balancing; VWAP likely close to ~193.5–193.8. Reclaiming and holding above session VWAP early tomorrow argues for a drift to 195–196; repeated rejections below VWAP warn of a probe back to 191–190.
• OBV/read-through: After the washout, OBV likely stabilized and started to curl with Monday’s rally; today’s giveback was not accompanied by extreme distribution, consistent with corrective action rather than impulsive selling.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Bullish primary trend with a descending-channel/flag-like corrective structure from 207 to present. Price is at the lower half of that channel. A push through 195–196 would be the first step to confirm a turn from correction to re-expansion toward 199–201.
• Elliott wave framing: Five-wave up into ~212, then an ABC corrective structure: A down into ~188, B up into ~201, and now C correcting into ~191–193 with potential termination near 0.618 of the B leg. If C is complete or near completion, a next impulsive sequence can target 197–199 first, then 201.

11. Relative and statistical tendencies

• In strong-trend names, 0.618 retraces of the first bounce off a correction low often produce a 1–3 day continuation upswing. Given ATR and resistance overhead, a pragmatic 24-hour objective sits in the 196–198 zone with optional extension to 199–200 if momentum and breadth support.
• Risk tail: A clean break and acceptance below 191 raises odds of a gap-fill test toward 189–188 (and a possible quick stop run to ~186.5). That remains the primary risk to a long.

12. Next 24 hours – scenario map (probabilities subjective)

• Base case (55%): Hold 191–192 on early dip; reclaim 194–195; grind to 196.5–198 into/through the cash session. Closing nearer 196–198 than 192.
• Range case (25%): Two-way chop 191.5–195.5, indecisive close 193–195.
• Bear risk case (20%): Early liquidity sweep below 191 triggers gap-fill toward 189–188; buyers defend ~188–189, late-day bounce back into low-190s.

13. Trade plan and risk management

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 191.5–193.0 with invalidation below ~189.4 on a closing or sustained intraday basis. Target a push into 196.5–198.5; manage partials into 197–198 due to layered supply and round-number gravity near 200.
• Entry tactic: Use a buy-limit slightly below spot to improve R:R given expected early dip risk. If price gaps up and holds above 195.5 with strong breadth, a momentum add/alternative is a stop-entry above ~195.6–196.0; however, for this plan we’ll publish the dip-buy setup.
• Risk controls (not part of output fields, but recommended): Stop ~189.4 (below 50% major fib and gap body). Risk:Reward ~ 1:1.7–1:2 to 197.8–198.5. Consider taking 50–70% off near 197.5–198 and trail remainder.

Conclusion and price path

• At 193.16, NVDA sits at a multi-swing 0.618 confluence with primary trend intact, medium-term consolidation, and supportive demand zones just below. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a stabilization above 191–192 followed by a drift/retest of 195–198. A clean move under 191 would shift the script toward a gap-fill probe, but odds favor a tactical bounce first. Therefore: Buy the dip with a target near 197.8.