NVDA: Buy the 191–193 Demand for a Gap-Fill Push Toward 198–199

Snapshot and context

• Ticker: NVDA (USD). Current price: 193.80 as of 2025-11-12 22:00 UTC.
• Recent regime: Post-earnings gap-and-run to 207 (10/29), followed by a corrective pullback to 188 (11/6), then a rebound to 199 (11/10), and a fade to 193–194 into today. Intraday on 11/12 showed a large wick sweep (≈185.6–204.3) with a close back near 193–194, signaling liquidity hunt and mean reversion dominance.

Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • Primary trend since early October: uptrend from ~170s to a late-October breakout above 200. Pullback has been corrective, not an outright trend reversal.
  • Swing points: High 212.2 (10/29 intraday), swing low 188.1 (11/6). Price currently trades inside this range, near the lower-middle quadrant.
  • Structure: Lower highs post-10/29 (207 → 206.9 → 199) and higher lows versus the 11/6 trough (188 → 191.1–191.6 today). This is a developing symmetrical consolidation with a slight bearish short-term tilt but a constructive medium-term base above 188–189.
• Intermediate trendline: A descending short-term channel from 11/10 to 11/12 has resistance ~196–197 and support ~191–192. Price sits near mid-to-lower band.

Support and resistance (confluence zones)

• Immediate supports: 193.1–193.4 (intraday closing cluster 11/12); 191.1–191.7 (today’s intraday lows and yesterday’s low ~191.3); 188.0–189.0 (11/6–11/7 capitulation base).
• Immediate resistances: 195.7–196.4 (today’s AM highs/VWAP region); 197.3 (Fib 38.2% of 212.2→188.1 drop); 199.0–200.2 (11/10 close 199.05 and 50% retrace cluster ~200.1); 202.9–203.0 (61.8% retrace); 206–207 (prior swing high/supply).
• Gap dynamics: 11/11 gap-down left an overhead gap/micro-imbalance from ~195.2 to ~199.1. Gaps often act as magnets; a fill attempt favors 196→198 before encountering strong supply.

Price action and candle diagnostics

• 11/12 intraday: Wide impulse extremes (≈185.6 to 204.3) reversed to settle near 193–194. Long upper and lower shadows imply stop raids both sides with no follow-through, typical liquidity vacuum behavior. Closes clustering near 193 suggest acceptance near that price.
• 11/10 bullish candle failed to extend, but sellers couldn’t take price below 191 today—early evidence of demand absorption at the 191 shelf.

Volume and participation

• Elevated volumes around inflection points (10/28–10/29 spike, 11/6–11/7 selloff, 11/12 open) denote strong participation. Today’s heavier open and stabilization near 193 imply two-way trade and absorption. Lack of heavy distribution into the close suggests sellers lost momentum intraday.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Short-term SMAs/EMAs (approximate from recent closes):
  • 5-day near 193 (price ≈ on top) → neutral short-term bias.
  • 10–20 day cluster around 193–195 → price gravitating around the mean; mid-band acts as pivot.
  • 50-day rising and likely below current price (upper 180s–low 190s), maintaining a medium-term bullish backdrop.
• Interpretation: Price sitting on/near the 20-day region exhibits mean-reversion characteristics with upside magnetism toward 196–199 unless 191 breaks decisively.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid-40s to low-50s (neutral). No divergence extremes; room to travel either way. Micro bullish divergence potential vs. 11/6 low (higher price low, stabilized momentum).
• Stochastics: Mid-range (≈40–55) consistent with consolidation; a turn up through 50 on a pop above 196 would favor an upswing toward 198–199.
• MACD: Bearish but contracting; histogram flattening indicates downside momentum fading. A marginal push above 196–197 likely triggers a bullish cross on lower timeframes first.

Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Bands moderately expanded after the October breakout and early-November selloff; price near the mid-band. Reversions from mid-band commonly extend to upper band on follow-through; immediate upside room to ~198–199 before upper-band pressures reappear.
• ATR (14d) elevated relative to September/October, implying wide intraday swings. Expect 24h realized range ~5–8 points absent fresh catalysts; tail risk larger given today’s wick.

VWAP and intraday mean reversion

• Today’s session oscillated around session VWAP in the mid-193s to mid-194s. Closing near VWAP after extreme tails suggests balanced profile; next session often begins with a test of prior value extremes: 191–192 on the downside, 195–196 on the upside. VWAP reversion behavior supports buying near 192–193 for a push back toward 196–198.

Fibonacci mapping (10/29 high 212.2 → 11/6 low 188.1)

• 38.2%: ~197.3; 50%: ~200.1; 61.8%: ~203.0. The 11/10 rebound stalled just shy of the 50% level; this creates a layered resistance shelf from 197–203. First test often rejects; second attempt has higher probability of partial penetration. Near-term, the 197–199 pocket is an attainable objective from 193 with favorable R:R.

Ichimoku lens (daily, qualitative)

• Price likely inside/below the conversion baseline cluster (Tenkan ~193–195, Kijun ~196–198). Trading below Kijun but around Tenkan is neutral-bearish short-term; reclaiming and holding above ~196–197 would tilt bias bullish and target the cloud/upper resistance ~199–203.

Elliott wave/structure heuristic

• From 212 → 188 appears as a 3-leg corrective decline. The 188 → 199 bounce is wave B (or X), followed by a shallow C/abc that fizzled around 191–193 rather than retesting 188. This shallow C often precedes another push toward the prior B high (≈199). If 191 breaks, the count morphs into a deeper flat targeting 188–189.

Market profile/read of liquidity

• Visible acceptance near 193 with a high-volume node; poor structural lows near 191.1 (multiple quick tags) indicate unfinished business below only if sellers can force value lower early next session. Conversely, the overhead single prints between 195–197 suggest thin liquidity that can be traversed quickly on a buy program.

Pattern synthesis and signals

• Bullish: Demand shelf 191–192 holding; mean-reversion support at 20-day region; contracting downside momentum; unfilled gap magnet 195–199; Fib confluence 197–200; price closing near VWAP rather than lows.
• Bearish: Short-term descending channel intact; macro supply heavy from 199–203; failure to hold 191 likely accelerates to 188.5–189.

24-hour scenario analysis (probabilities are subjective)

• Base case (55%): Early dip into 192–192.5 gets bought; drive toward 195.7–196.4; extension probe into 197.2–198.8; stall below 199 and consolidate 195–198 into close.
• Bear case (30%): Weak open; loss of 191.0–191.3 triggers stop cascade to 189–190; reflex bounce to 192–193 by close.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong open above 196; momentum carry to 199.0–200.2 fills more of the 11/11 gap; closing 197–199 zone.

Risk management and trade plan

• Long thesis: Buy the 192–193 pullback into demand with VWAP/mean reversion aiming for the gap-fill pocket 197–199. Invalidation on sustained trade below 191.
• Stop (for planning): ~190.9 (below the 11/12 and 11/11 shelf). Target: 198.6 (below round-number/supply to maximize fill probability). R:R ≈ 3:1 from a 192.9 entry.
• If price gaps up above 196 at the open, avoid chasing; wait for a VWAP pullback toward 194.8–195.5 to re-evaluate.

Bottom line and 24h directional call

• Bias: Moderately bullish for a mean-reversion bounce toward 197–199 while 191 holds. The larger trend backdrop remains constructive above 188–189. Optimal play is a buy-the-dip entry near 192.9 with a take-profit near 198.6 within the next session.