NVDA poised for a pivot-to-gap-fill bounce: targeting 191–193 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish (tactical bounce). Expect a recovery toward 190.9–193.2 after today’s capitulation and intraday liquidity sweep, with risk of a retest of 184–183 if early weakness persists.
• Core rationale: Price is testing a dense volume node and prior support around 186–187; we saw a stop-run to 183.85 and even a thin-print to 176.21 after-hours before snapping back near VWAP. Momentum is washed out but stabilizing, breadth of the recent selloff is extended versus 5–20 day means, and several frameworks (pivot points, Fibonacci, mean-reversion bands, intraday VWAP dynamics) align for a gap-fill/reversion toward 191–193.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Primary trend (since late October): Up into 10/29 (peak ~212.19), then corrective downtrend. Current price 186.86 is ~11.9% below the late-Oct high, but still comfortably above the mid-September base (~170–175). So bigger picture remains constructive; short-term is corrective.
• Intermediate structure: The 10/28–10/29 breakout gap (into 203–212) has been fully retraced; price is now sitting on the early-October congestion zone (185–190), which previously acted as resistance and now functions as support.
• Short-term structure: Today’s regular-hours bar: O=191.04, H=191.44, L=183.85, C=186.86 on heavy volume (~206M). That’s a downside continuation that probed and rejected sub-184, ending near the day’s pivot area. After-hours saw an anomalous spike: high 193.8, low 176.21 (likely thin liquidity, headline/algos). Price re-centered ~186–187 by 22:00, suggesting acceptance around today’s VWAP and value area.

2. Support and resistance mapping

• Nearest supports: 186–187 (value node/VWAP region), 184 (today’s ROH swing low), 183.3 (classic S1 pivot), 180 (psychological round), 179.8 (S2), 176–178 (prior October demand and today’s after-hours sweep zone).
• Overhead resistances: 190.9 (R1 pivot), 193–195 (gap window/10–20 day supply), 198–199.5 (50% retrace and round number), 201–202 (61.8% retrace/late-October congestion), 206–207 (post-gap shelf), 212 (swing high).

3. Daily pivots for next session (computed from 11/13 H/L/C)

• P = (191.44 + 183.85 + 186.86)/3 ≈ 187.38
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 190.91; S1 = 2P − H ≈ 183.32
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 194.97; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 179.79
• R3 ≈ 198.50; S3 ≈ 175.73 Interpretation: Expect magnet behavior near P=187.4; first upside objective R1≈190.9, extension to R2≈195 if momentum improves. Downside flush risk to S1≈183.3 if early selling resumes.

4. Fibonacci framework (swing 10/29 high to 11/13 low)

• Range: 212.19 → 183.85 = 28.34
• Retracements from 183.85: 38.2% ≈ 194.67; 50% ≈ 198.02; 61.8% ≈ 201.37 Interpretation: A relief rally that clears ~191 could feasibly extend toward 194.7 (38.2%); stronger tapes can target 198–201 in coming sessions, but that’s beyond 24h base case.

5. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~189–190. Price is marginally below, indicating short-term bearish bias but close enough for mean-reversion pull.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~183–185. Price is slightly above/near this band; losing 183–185 on a closing basis would tilt intermediate momentum more negative.
• 200-day SMA (approx): ~170–175. Still comfortably below; primary uptrend intact. Interpretation: Price sandwiched between 20d and 50d MAs often mean-reverts; reclaiming 20d around 189–190 would invite a push to R1 (~191) quickly.

6. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~43–46. Off the highs, not oversold, but near lower-neutral; room to bounce.
• Stochastic daily (est.): Near 30, curling; potential bullish cross if price stabilizes above 186–187.
• MACD daily: Bearish below zero; histogram negative but flattening on intraday basis. A green day could produce a shallow bullish inflection.
• ROC(10): Negative but mean-reversion prone after a sequence of lower highs. Interpretation: Momentum is washed out but not capitulated; modest upside mean-reversion is favored near support.

7. Volatility and mean-reversion bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~6–7. Today’s true range (~7.6) sits near the upper end of recent. Expect 24h expected move ≈ ±6.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Mid ~189; lower ~181; upper ~197. Price near lower half, not quite at the band—room for a bounce to the mid-band.
• Keltner Channel (est.): Price hugged the lower envelope today; reversion toward the center line aligns with 189–191. Interpretation: Stretch relative to 20-day averages suggests snapback potential to 189–191.

8. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Today’s volume ~206M > recent average, indicating active distribution and responsive buying at lows.
• Today’s VWAP (intraday est.): ~186.8–187.2. Current price ~186.9 is right on VWAP; recapture and hold above VWAP early tomorrow typically targets the day’s pivot and R1 (187.4 then 190.9).
• Volume nodes: Heavy volume traded 185–187 and 188–190. Acceptance above 187.4 often leads to 189.8–191.0 test; failure below 186 risks a slip to 184 then 183.3. Interpretation: Market found value around 186–187. The path of least resistance is a VWAP-up day if early selling is absorbed.

9. Candlestick/price action

• Today’s daily: Wide-range red candle closing above the session’s extreme low—evidence of responsive buying, but not a classic hammer. Still, the long intraday wick below 185 suggests demand beneath.
• Intraday “liquidity sweep”: The 21:00 bar printed an extreme 176.21 low and 193.8 high, indicative of thin after-hours liquidity and stop runs; price re-centered. Such sweeps often precede mean-reversion in regular hours.
• Gap dynamics: 11/13 opened with a gap down from 11/12 close (193.8 → 191.0) and did not fill; the first logical bounce objective for 11/14 is gap-fill toward 191–193.

10. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Price likely within/just below cloud with Tenkan ~187–188 and Kijun ~190–192. Current below Kijun but near Tenkan. A clean recapture of Tenkan favors a drift toward Kijun (≈190–192) in the next session.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Elliott: Post-impulse (to 212) ABC correction plausible. A-wave into 11/6 (~188), B-wave bounce on 11/10 (~199), C-wave into today’s 183.85. C ≈ 1.0×A measured move is near today’s low; suggests exhaustion potential and rebound.
• Wyckoff: Today resembles a spring/secondary test behavior within a range (sweep below 185 and quick reclaim). Confirmation requires follow-through above 187.4 pivot and strong tape toward 191.

12. Statistical and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early probe 185.5–186.5, VWAP reclaim, drift to pivot 187.4, extension to R1 190.9; intraday high 191–192; close around 190–191.
• Bull case (25%): Strong open, gap-fill run into 191 quickly, momentum pushes toward 193–194.7 (Fib 38.2%); intraday high up to 193.2; close ~192.
• Bear case (20%): Failure at VWAP/pivot; roll over to 184–183.3 (S1). If 183.3 breaks on volume, test 180 (S2) possible; odds lower due to today’s response buying.

13. Confluence summary

• Converging targets: Pivot R1 (190.9), Tenkan/Kijun (≈190–192), gap-fill zone (191–193), and Fib 38.2% (194.7, a stretch). Support confluence: 185–187 (VWAP/value), 183.3 (S1), 180 (S2).
• Skew: Slightly positive for a 1–2 day bounce; path of least resistance is a reversion to 190–192 with stops under 183.3.

14. Risk management notes (tactical)

• Invalidation for the long idea sits below 183.3 (S1 pivot) on a closing/hourly basis with expanding volume; that would open 180.
• Optimal entry: On a minor morning dip into 185.8–186.3 or on VWAP reclaim above 187 with momentum confirmation. Given current 186.86, a limit at ~186.2 balances fill probability and risk.
• Realistic 24h take-profit: 191–192 (R1/Gap-fill), with optional runner toward 193.2 if tape strengthens.

Bottom line

• Expect a mean-reversion bounce toward 191–193 in the next 24 hours, contingent on holding 185–186 on early probes. The setup favors a tactical Buy with entry near 186.2 and profit-taking near 191.6, acknowledging downside risk to 183.3 if sellers press early.