NVDA Hammer Reversal at the Lower Band: Setting Up a VWAP-to-20SMA Push

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Short-term (next 24h) bias: modestly bullish. Today printed a classic hammer/undercut-and-rally off the lower Bollinger Band with a decisive VWAP reclaim and rising intraday highs into the close. Expect a continuation push toward 191.5–194.0, with 193.8–194.6 as the first meaningful resistance cluster.
• Optimal tactic: buy-the-dip near the late-day value area (around 189.2–189.6) with a take-profit into the 193.5–194.0 supply band. Note: odd 21:00 bar high/low appears anomalous; excluded from inference.

1. Price action and structure

• Higher time frame context: After the late-Oct breakout to ~207.0 (10/29), NVDA retraced to 186.86 yesterday (11/13). Today’s session undercut intraday to 180.58, then reversed to close ~190.17, forming a long lower-tail hammer near a high-volume support shelf (186–188). This is a textbook undercut-and-rally (U&R) or Wyckoff “spring” signature, often preceding a 1–3 day rebound.
• Key horizontal levels • Supports: 188.0–188.2 (11/6–11/7 pivot shelf), 186.86 (11/13 close), 183.3–185.6 (10/6–10/7 zone), 180.6 (today’s capitulation low, confluence with lower Bollinger). • Resistances: 191.0–191.5 (today’s intraday cap), 193.2–193.8 (11/11–11/12 closes), 194.6 (38.2% Fib of 207.0→186.9 swing), 196.9 (50% Fib), 199.3 (61.8% Fib), 201–203 (psych + 10/30–31 supply), 207.0 (swing high).
• Pattern read: Descending pullback channel from 10/29 peak shows signs of arrest; today’s hammer near the channel’s lower boundary with a close back in the prior value area is a constructive reversal attempt.

2. Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Volume: Elevated and constructive. Today’s broad-based participation (184M+ on the day) into the reversal indicates real dip demand. Previous heavy-volume days centered at the late-Oct breakout/earnings area show strong longer-term sponsorship.
• Intraday VWAP: NVDA reclaimed and held above VWAP in the back half of the session; late-day prints clustered around 189.8–190.3 with persistent higher lows. That favors follow-through buying early next session, provided 188.8–189.5 holds on any overnight gap-down tests.
• Volume nodes: Notable high-volume nodes at ~190 and ~199; near term, price is likely to oscillate around 190 as a magnet, then probe into 193–195 if buyers press the advantage.

3. Moving averages (trend diagnostics)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 192.5 (est.): Price closed modestly below the 20SMA; a reversion toward this mean is the base-case. A push into 192.5–194.5 aligns with a typical first bounce post-hammer.
• 50-day SMA (est.) in the low-to-mid 180s: Price remains above the 50SMA, preserving the medium-term uptrend despite the early-Nov correction.
• 8/10-EMA cluster likely ~189–191: Today’s reclaim of this short-term EMA band supports a 1–2 day continuation higher.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (est.): Mid-40s rising toward 50 after today’s reversal. Room to advance before overbought; supports 1–3 more green candles if dip buyers persist.
• Stochastics (est.): Still depressed relative to the 14-day range but curling up—consistent with early-stage reversal, not yet extended.

5. MACD and momentum inflection

• MACD line below signal after the early-Nov pullback; histogram has likely been negative but is contracting. Today’s impulsive off-lows rally typically precedes a positive histogram inflection and potential bullish crossover within a few sessions.

6. Volatility and Bollinger/ATR

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Lower band tagged (~180–181), strong intraday reversal, and a close well off the lows suggests a classic mean-reversion setup. First magnet is the 20SMA (~192.5), then upper third of the band (~195–199) on stronger momentum.
• ATR(14) (est.) ~6–8: Expected 1-day move scope implies a reasonable 24h range of roughly 187–195 if realized volatility persists.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• Swing 207.04 → 186.86 • 38.2%: 194.6 • 50%: 197.0 • 61.8%: 199.3
• Near-term target zone 193.8–194.6 aligns with prior closing supply and 38.2% retracement—high-confidence first resistance band.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price likely still above the daily cloud after the Oct surge, with Kijun estimated ~196. A bounce toward Tenkan/Kijun equilibrium is typical after a spring; however, the first battle remains the 20SMA/193–195 shelf.

9. Wyckoff read and U&R mechanics

• The sequence 188 shelf → undercut to 186.86 → deeper intraday probe to 180.58 → fast reclaim back above 188 forms a Spring + Test dynamic. The measured objective is a rally back to the breakdown zone (191–194) to assess supply. If supply absorption is effective sub-195, the path opens to 197–199.

10. Options and pinning (inference)

• 190 is a sticky psychological and likely options strike; today’s settlement near 190 supports mild pinning into the weekend. On the next session, if 190 holds on the open, dealer positioning can facilitate a drift toward 192–194 as short-dated calls re-hedge.

11. Relative strength and regime

• Despite the pullback, NVDA remains a leadership name with strong beta. The early-Nov drawdown was corrective rather than trend-ending. Today’s hammer against multi-week support keeps the bigger bullish regime intact.

12. Scenario map for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Hold 188.8–189.5 on dips, then push into 191.5–193.8; intraday spikes may tag 194.6 (38.2% Fib). Expect churn near 191 first, then grind higher as supply thins.
• Bear shake (25%): Quick probe to 187.5–188.5 to test the spring. As long as 186.8 holds on a closing basis, buyers likely reassert and drive it back to ~191.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong open above 191, immediate squeeze through 193.8, stretching to 194.6–196.0. This requires early breadth and follow-through; less likely without a catalyst.

Trade plan and execution details

• Bias: Buy-the-dip (Long).
• Entry: Staggered limit near the value area: 189.4 (primary). This sits just below the late-day consolidation and slightly under today’s VWAP cluster, increasing fill probability without chasing.
• Take-profit: 193.8 (first major supply and prior close), with awareness of a possible overshoot to 194.6 on momentum.
• Risk context (not requested but prudent): A protective stop would typically sit below 186.7 (invalidates the hammer/U&R). This gives an R:R of ~1:1.2 to 1:1.5 to the 193.8–194.6 band; improvement via partials on strength and trailing on a 30–60m EMA is recommended.

Why “Buy” here

• Confluence of reversal signals (hammer off lower band, VWAP reclaim, volume expansion) at a well-defined support shelf, with nearby upside targets (191–194.6) and a clean invalidation pivot (186.7). Momentum and mean-reversion factors favor a 1–2 day bounce toward the 20SMA.

Risk factors to monitor

• A decisive loss of 188 on volume, or a gap-and-fail under 186.7, would negate the setup and argue to stand aside or reassess.
• Macro/sector beta shocks (SOX/QQQ weakness) can stall the push into 193–195. Watch early breadth and semis leadership.

24h price path expectation

• Likely opening consolidation around 189–191, then an attempt to press 191.5–193.0 by mid-session; if volume confirms, extension into 193.8–194.6 before supply pushes a late-day fade back toward ~192–193.