NVDA poised for a pivot-base bounce: buying the 185–186 shelf for a push toward 189+ within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi‑framework technical read on NVDA (last: $186.60)

Timeframe covered

• Intraday (today’s RTH + after-hours) and Daily (last several months) to project the next 24 hours (premarket + next RTH session).

1. Price action and market structure

• Primary structure (daily): Post-earnings thrust peaked near 212.19 (10/29), followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into mid-November. The last three daily closes (11/12–11/14–11/17) show price oscillating around the high-180s with repeated tests of the mid-180s support. Today printed a small green real body with a pronounced lower shadow (low 184.32, close 186.60), i.e., a hammer-like candle near a key multi-session demand zone (184–186), consistent with short-term exhaustion of sellers.
• Micro (intraday today): Opening push faded to 184.32, then mean reverted toward VWAP late session and closed near 186.6. Hourly bars show a decelerating downside momentum and stabilizing bid around 185–186 into the close.

2. Key levels (confluence map)

• Today’s classic floor pivots (using H=189.00, L=184.32, C=186.60): • Pivot (P) ≈ 186.64 (current price ~ at pivot) • R1 ≈ 188.96, R2 ≈ 191.32, R3 ≈ 193.64 • S1 ≈ 184.28, S2 ≈ 181.96, S3 ≈ 179.60
• Fibonacci of the downswing 212.19 → 184.32 (Δ=27.87): • 23.6% ≈ 190.90 (first meaningful fib resistance above) • 38.2% ≈ 194.97, 50% ≈ 198.26
• Horizontal structure: • Demand: 184.0–185.0 (today’s low 184.32 sits in this box), then 181.5–182.5 (S2 area) • Supply: 188.5–189.5 (R1 cluster), 190.8–191.5 (fib 23.6% + R2), 193–195 (R3 + 38.2%)
• Gaps/voids: The 10/28–10/31 earnings gap area created overhead supply from ~196–201; nearer term, the 189–191 pocket is the first test zone.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 5/10/20 EMAs (est.): 5EMA ~188.7, 10EMA ~190.6, 20EMA ~187.5. Price ($186.6) sits slightly below the 20EMA but within 1 ATR; below the 10EMA/5EMA. That’s short-term corrective within a still-elevated longer-term trend. A push above ~188.5 would reclaim the 20EMA and start a mean-reversion toward the 10EMA.
• 50SMA (est.) ~181–182; 100SMA (est.) ~174–176. Price remains above the 50SMA, indicating the larger uptrend is intact despite the pullback.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (calc. from provided closes): ≈ 39. This is near the lower bound of neutral, not deeply oversold, but in the area where short-term bounces often begin.
• Stochastics (qualitative): %K/%D likely in the 20–35 band and curling, consistent with a potential near-term uptick if price holds above 185.
• MACD (12/26/9, qualitative): Negative and below signal for the last week-plus, but histogram contraction is consistent with losing downside momentum as we approach support. A positive 1–2 day bounce is plausible even without a formal bullish cross.

5. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ 5.0–5.5. Expected 1-day move ~ ±2.7–3.0% implies a typical next-session envelope of ~181.5 to ~191.8 from today’s close. That aligns well with pivot S2/R2.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (est.): Middle band near ~187.5–188; lower band near ~182–183. Today closed near/below the middle and well above the lower band; yesterday’s and today’s wicks suggest demand engaged before tagging the lower band, a slight positive divergence.

6. Volume analytics

• Daily volume today ~170M, above many prior sessions, indicating active two-way trade at support. That often precedes stabilization or a reflexive bounce.
• OBV/ADL (qualitative): The November decline came with heavier down-volume days, but recent sessions show absorption near 185–187. Notably, the strong-volume defense of 184–185 intraday suggests real buyers at those levels.
• Intraday VWAP: Approx. ~186.6–186.9. Close ≈ VWAP → balanced day; tomorrow’s opening above VWAP that holds favors a push to R1 (188.9) and possibly R2 (191.3).

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below the cloud after the recent break, Tenkan likely ~188–189, Kijun ~182–183. Price is between Tenkan and Kijun, a mean-reversion zone. A day close back above Tenkan (~188–189) typically attracts follow-through toward the lower cloud edge (~190–192).

8. Market profile/context

• Value area the past week clusters 185–189; point of control likely ~187–188. The market is rotating within this bracket. Today’s defense at 184.3 and close near POC suggests a test higher toward the bracket’s upper edge (189–191) is the higher-probability path if 184.8–185.5 continues to hold.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Candlestick: Today’s hammer-like structure near support with higher close is a classic one-bar potential reversal cue; needs confirmation via an up-close and hold above ~187.5–188.0.
• Measured move symmetry: The leg down from 199.05 (11/10) to 186.86 (11/13) was ~12.19, followed by a corrective uptick to 190.17 and a retest to 186.60. This mini ABC correction may be completing near 186, setting up a bounce toward 189–191.
• Elliott (qualitative): The post-212 drop reads like a larger corrective wave; subwave C may have ended near 184–186. The next 1–2 sessions often retrace 23.6–38.2% of the larger swing (targets 190.9 then 195.0), with the nearer 23.6% more consistent with a 24-hour horizon.

10. Options/gamma color (inference)

• Round-number magnets 185 and 190 likely carry sizable open interest. With spot near 186–187, dealer gamma dynamics may pin within 185–190 unless a catalyst breaks it. Expect intraday magnetism toward 187.5–189 into the next close if the bid holds at 185–186 early.

11. Multi-tool synthesis and 24-hour path probability

• Bullish factors: Hammer at support; RSI ~39 with loss of downside momentum; price at pivot P with nearby S1 at 184.3; strong demand reaction at 184–185; VWAP recapture late; 23.6% retrace target at 190.9 with interim pivot R1 188.96.
• Bearish risks: Broader sequence of lower highs since 10/29; below short MAs; still under the cloud; a failure to hold 185 quickly exposes S1 (184.3) then S2 (182.0).
• Base case (55–60%): Early dip buy attempt 185.5–186.0, then grind to 187.8–189.2; late attempt toward 189.5 possible if breadth cooperates. Probability to tag R1 (188.9): moderate; R2 (191.3): lower but feasible on positive macro tape.
• Bearish alt (30–35%): Break/hold below 185.0 leads to fast probe of 184.3 (S1); sustained weakness could print 182–183 (S2) before buyers re-engage.
• Tail (5–10%): Sharp gap-and-go above 189.5 squeezes to 191–192; or surprise negative headline flush to 181–182.

12. Trading plan (next 24 hours)

• Bias: Tactical Buy (long) for a mean-reversion bounce into the 188.9–191.3 resistance band, using the 185–186 demand shelf as entry zone.
• Entry logic: Prefer a limit buy in the 185.6–186.2 pocket (below VWAP, above S1), exploiting any early dip. If market gaps up >188 with strength, consider chasing is higher risk; however, the plan here optimizes for risk/reward by entering on a pullback.
• Targets: First target 188.9 (R1), stretch 190.9 (Fib 23.6%) if momentum improves. For the required single close level, we’ll anchor near the R1-R2 path but slightly conservative for a 1-day window.
• Invalidation context (not a formal stop, but discipline cue): A decisive break and 30–60min hold below 184.3 negates the bounce thesis and argues to stand down or flip bias.

Forecast summary (24h): Expect an early test of 185.5–186.0, then a drift/higher push toward 188.5–189.5. Odds favor a green session unless 184.8–185.0 fails on volume.