NVDA: Fade the Pop Into R1 — Lower Highs Signal Another Leg Down

Instrument: NVDA (daily and intraday bars through 2025-11-18). Current price ~181.36

Executive summary (24h outlook):

• Bias: Short on strength. Expect a fade into resistance 183.8–184.6 with downside retest toward 178–177 (S2) within 24 hours, unless price reclaims and holds above ~186.9 (R2/upper band) where the short thesis weakens.
• Probable range next 24h: 176.9–184.1 (classic pivots S2–R1), with tails possible to ~176 and ~186 in a high-vol regime.
• Setups: Sell the pop near R1/volume node; stop above R2; target S2/volume shelf.

1. Market structure and trend

• Primary trend (since 2025-10-29 high ~212): Downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Swing sequence of closes: 201.03 → 207.04 → 202.89 → 206.88 → 198.69 → 195.21 → 188.08/188.15 → 199.05 → 193.16/193.80 → 186.86 → 190.17 → 186.60 → 181.36. Momentum tilted down, rallies sold.
• Structure today (11/18): High volume sell day with a wide real body; intraday attempts above 184 were rejected; sellers defended the 184–185 shelf and forced a test of 180 (low 179.65). Close near the lower third of the day’s range keeps pressure on supports.
• Key horizontal levels from recent months: • Resistance: 183.8–184.6 (pivot R1/last intraday supply), 186.9 (R2/20-day mid-BB), 189.1 (R3), 190–191 (late-Oct supply/volume node), 195–200 (broken base/AVWAP cluster). • Support: 179.1 (S1 vicinity), 176.9 (S2/pocket), 175.2–174.1 (older S3/late-Sep shelf), then 170.6–170.8 (Sept pivot).

2. Price action, candles, and pattern context

• Daily candle: Red body with a lower shadow after a push to 179.65; not a classic hammer (close not near high). High-volume “test” of 180 psychological; close below the volume node at 183–184 keeps bears in control short-term.
• Intraday (hourly feed): Multiple failed pushes into 184.5 followed by lower highs; the 21:00 bar shows a very wide wick 186.6 to 174.23 (likely stop-sweep/illiquid prints), confirming volatility and two-sided liquidity hunts. The dominant flow: sell rallies into 184–185, buy programs appear around 179–180 but without follow-through.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~41–43. Tilted bearish but not deeply oversold; room for a further leg lower before a durable mean-reversion. Intraday RSI shows mild bullish divergences into 180, but not enough to flip trend.
• MACD daily: Below signal and below zero; histogram contraction today suggests downside momentum is decelerating, yet trend remains bearish unless price reclaims the signal with closes >186–187.
• Stochastics: Hovering in lower-mid range; potential for a brief bounce into resistance, consistent with “sell-on-rip”.

4. Moving averages and bands

• 20-D SMA (approx): ~187.8; price beneath it. 20-D Bollinger Bands: mid ~187.8, lower ~178.8; today’s low tagged the lower band vicinity, then closed above it, typical of a ‘walking the band’ bearish phase.
• 50-D SMA (approx): ~182–183; price slightly below/near it; losing/retaking this line intra-day has flip-flopped; currently acts as overhead friction together with the 183–184 node.
• 200-D SMA (contextual): Well below current price on NVDA; not directly in play near-term. Short-term trend (20/50) signals bearish momentum.

5. Volatility and range

• True range trend: Recent daily ranges 4–11; 14-day ATR approx ~7.0. Today’s H-L = 5.0, inside the prevailing ATR but with notable intraday tails. Expect another 6–8 point, two-sided session ahead.
• Keltner channels (approx): Price riding the lower Keltner; combined with lower BB suggests controlled downside drift with reactive bounces.

6. Volume, liquidity, and profile

• Volume: 210.8M vs recent average ~160–180M; distribution skewed to the downside. Heavy participation on pushes below 183.
• Volume nodes: 183–188 is a major node from Oct/Nov; losing 183 leaves a lighter pocket to ~178–177 (low-volume area) that price tends to traverse quickly, making S2 (176.9) an attractive magnet.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs, confirming distribution during bounces.

7. Pivots and intraday map (classic, using 11/18 H=184.65, L=179.65, C=181.36)

• Pivot P = 181.89
• R1 = 184.12; R2 = 186.89; R3 = 189.12
• S1 = 179.12; S2 = 176.89; S3 = 174.12 Interpretation: Price closed below P; first upside magnet is P → R1 where sellers likely reload. Downside path favors S1 test; a decisive slip below S1 sets up S2 (176.9) within 24h.

8. VWAPs and anchored references

• Session VWAP (11/18): Sat near 182 intraday; late-day price lost VWAP, indicating sell-side control into the close.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/28–10/29 breakout impulse: Estimated in the 196–198 area; still well above price, underscoring a distribution phase where rallies to mid-190s in prior weeks were sold.

9. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Tenkan: ~189.4; Kijun: ~194–195; Price: 181.4.
• Cloud: Above price and likely thick; bearish configuration with price below Tenkan and Kijun, suggesting rallies into 186–190 are likely rejected initially.

10. Fibonacci context

• Swing: 212.2 (10/29) down to 181.4 (11/18).
• Retracement resistances: 23.6% ~188.8, 38.2% ~192.8, 50% ~196.8. The 188.5–193 zone houses confluence with prior supply and BB midline, making it a formidable cap if price squeezes beyond R2.

11. Candlestick/price pattern signals

• No confirmed bullish reversal pattern on the daily. Today’s candle is more akin to a high-volume test of 180 with an unresolved close. Re-entries into 183–185 have repeatedly failed across the past week.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bearish fade, 55–60%): Early bounce toward P/R1 181.9–184.1 gets sold; price rolls over through 180–179 to probe S2 176.9. Close in 177–180.
• Alt 1 (neutral chop, 25–30%): Rotational day around P with wicks S1↔R1 (179.1–184.1), no decisive break; sets stage for the next session’s move.
• Alt 2 (bull squeeze, 10–15%): Sustained reclaim of R1 and hold above 184.5 targets R2 186.9; only a strong close above 186.9–187.5 starts to negate the short for 189.1/190 retest.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Preferred entry: Short a pop into 183.8–184.6 (near R1 and the 50-D area/volume node) using a limit order.
• Stop (invalidation): Above 186.9 (R2/upper band confluence). For tighter control, 186.5 is acceptable, but 186.9 better reflects structural invalidation.
• Take profit: Scale 179.2 (S1) and 177.0–176.9 (S2). Primary TP: 177.1.
• Risk/reward: Entry 183.8, stop 186.9 (risk 3.1), TP 177.1 (reward 6.7) → RR ≈ 2.1:1.
• Contingency: If price gaps below 179 at the open, do not chase; wait for a bounce back toward 181–182/Pivot for a fresh short. If price opens above 185 and holds VWAP, step aside; only re-engage if it fails back under 184.5.

14. Why not a long here?

• While 180–178 is support and near the lower Bollinger band, there’s no daily reversal confirmation and the broader structure remains bearish with heavy supply overhead. Any long would be countertrend scalp-only with inferior RR versus the short-from-resistance setup.

15. Bottom line

• The confluence of: persistent lower highs, failure at 183–185, price below 20/50 SMAs and VWAP, momentum under zero, and a thin volume pocket toward 177 argues for selling strength into R1 with eyes on S2 within the next session.