NVDA’s Post-Earnings Launch: Buy the 191–193 Dip for a Run at 200+ Within 24 Hours

Note on data consistency and the price I’ll trade off: the dataset shows the official daily close on 2025-11-19 at 186.52, but the intraday stream prints a powerful post-close spike with a 21:00 bar of 186.52/195.83/180.63/194.65 and a last tick at 22:00:06 of 194.77. For the next-24h forecast, I anchor on the most recent tick (≈194.8) and the after-hours behavior; the “currentPrice” field (186.52) likely reflects the regular-session close pre-earnings.

Step-by-step multi-technique analysis

1. Market structure (price action HH/HL, supply/demand, gaps)

• Daily context since late Sep: a strong up-leg into 10/28–10/29 (201–212 highs), followed by a corrective decline into 11/18 (≈179.65 intraday low), then a sharp rebound. Structure shifted from lower-highs/lower-lows in early Nov to a potential trend re-acceleration post-earnings (today’s AH breakout).
• Key supply: 199–203 (late Oct/early Nov pivot and gap region: 10/28 close 201.03, 10/31 202.49). Secondary supply: 206–212 (late Oct highs).
• Key demand: 181–188 zone (multi-touch shelf: 11/7 close 188.15, 11/17 close 186.60, 11/18 low 179.65 just beneath). The 186–188 area is a high-volume node where buyers previously stepped in.
• Gap dynamics: there’s a fresh gap from regular close (186.52) to AH prints near 194–195. Gaps post-earnings often partially retrace early next session; a shallow fill toward 191–193 would be constructive, deep fill toward 188 would challenge momentum but still keep the bullish case if reclaimed.

2. Trend and moving averages (EMA/SMA)

• Short-term MAs: Price reclaimed and accelerated above the 10–20 day averages in AH; slope turning up. After the 11/18 dip to ~181, the last three regular sessions showed stabilization and a modest curl higher, now turbocharged by the AH breakout.
• Medium trend (≈50DMA): NVDA spent early Nov oscillating around the 50DMA; tonight’s jump vaults price comfortably above it, typically signaling momentum resumption.
• Longer trend (≈100–200DMA): Intact uptrend; pullback was within a rising longer-term structure.
  Interpretation: Multi-timeframe trend alignment is shifting bullish again, with short-term now leading medium-term.

3. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI: Likely pivoted from mid-40s to mid/high-50s on the regular session; the AH spike probably pushes it into 60–65, i.e., bullish momentum without being dangerously overbought yet.
• Stochastics (daily): Crossing up through the midline after a reset; typical of a new impulse leg.
• MACD (daily): Bullish histogram contraction -> potential zero-line cross imminent; tonight’s surge increases probability of a confirmed bullish cross within 1–3 sessions.
  Interpretation: Momentum indicators support a bullish 24–72h impulse following the catalyst.

4. Volatility and range (ATR, regime assessment)

• Recent true ranges expanded notably: 11/19 AH range was ~15 points (180.6–195.8).
• 14-day ATR had compressed to ≈6–8 points pre-earnings; tonight’s expansion reopens the range.
  Implication: Expect elevated intraday swings; entries on pullbacks are preferred over chasing strength.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Price likely closed the RTH session near the upper band and then extended above it AH.
• A band ride often follows earnings beats; first pullback toward the upper band (likely ≈190–192) is typically bought in strong tapes.
  Implication: A dip into 191–193 is an attractive risk-adjusted entry window.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily)

• Price reclaimed above Tenkan and Kijun; AH spike places price firmly above the cloud. Chikou span likely clears recent candles.
• Tenkan > Kijun cross and price > cloud = bullish configuration.
  Implication: Trend confirmation, with the Kijun/upper cloud (≈186–189) as first-tier support on pullbacks.

7. VWAPs (session and anchored)

• Today’s RTH VWAP was around mid-184s to mid-185s given intraday action; AH volume-weight likely lifted toward ~190–192.
• The post-event price stands well above RTH VWAP; first revisits of AH VWAP zones (≈191–193) tend to attract dip buyers when the catalyst is favorable.
  Implication: Buy-the-dip bias into 191–193.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10/29 H to 11/18 L)

• Swing high: ~212.19 (10/29). Swing low: ~179.65 (11/18). Range ≈32.54.
• 38.2%: ~191.1; 50%: ~195.9; 61.8%: ~200.8.
• AH price ~194.7 sits between 38.2% and 50%; the 50% retrace (~195.9) is a near-term resistance. 61.8% at ~200.8 coincides with prior supply zone lower bound.
  Implication: A tactical pullback toward 191–193 (around 38.2%/AH VWAP) offers entry, with 200.8 as a logical 24h target.

9. Classical pivots (based on RTH 11/19: H≈187.85, L≈182.83, C=186.52)

• Pivot P ≈ 185.7; R1 ≈ 188.6; R2 ≈ 190.7; R3 ≈ 193.6.
• AH price cleared R3 decisively, pointing to a momentum regime where extended pivots (R4 ≈ 195.9) and the 61.8% fib (~200.8) are in play.
  Implication: Above 193.6, momentum tends to persist unless a deep gap-fill occurs.

10. Candlestick/price pattern diagnostics

• RTH: constructive green session with higher low vs. 11/18 and close near highs; AH: large bullish marubozu-like impulse following headline (likely earnings).
• Intraday: impulse leg 14:30–21:00 with consolidation and then a large expansion; potential bull flag forms if early next session dips and holds 191–193 before pushing higher.
  Implication: Continuation setup typical of post-catalyst trends.

11. Volume analysis (confirmation and nodes)

• Today’s composite volume very heavy (RTH + AH), validating the move.
• High-volume nodes at 186–188 form a demand shelf; low-volume pocket 191–195 can lead to swift traversals intra-session.
  Implication: Pullbacks to 191–193 may be brief; upside traversals to 199–201 can be fast once 196–197 is reclaimed intraday.

12. ADX/trend strength

• ADX was moderate during the consolidation; the spike in DI+ along with rising ADX is consistent with a new directional phase.
  Implication: Favor with-trend trades; fade attempts have reduced expectancy until momentum dissipates.

13. Elliott wave micro-count (tactical, probabilistic)

• Wave 1: AH surge from ~184–186 to ~195.8.
• Wave 2: Anticipated pullback of 38.2–50% of the impulse leg (targeting ~191–193).
• Wave 3: Projection typically exceeds Wave 1; initial objective aligns with fib 61.8% of the higher-degree swing near 200.8, with potential overshoot toward 202 if tape remains heavy-bid.
  Implication: Buy the Wave-2 dip for a Wave-3 extension into 199–201.

14. Time-of-day and event patterning

• Post-earnings sessions often open with elevated volatility, an early dip (gap-fill attempt), then resolve in the catalyst direction if guidance beats/raises.
• Given the AH strength and volume, base case is a higher open vs. RTH close, a tradable dip, then trend continuation.

Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Confluence bullish: trend re-acceleration, momentum turn, heavy volume, AH break above R3 and toward the 50% retrace, with 61.8% at ~200.8 next.
• Base case (60–65% odds): Early dip to 191–193 gets bought; price pushes into 198–201, testing 200.8.
• Bear/alt case (35–40%): Deeper gap-fill toward 188–189; if reclaimed, later rally resumes; a firm break below 186–187 would dent the thesis and target 183–184, but odds are lower given the catalyst tone.

Trade plan logic

• Direction: Buy (Long).
• Entry: Staggered/best single level near 192.2 (in the 191–193 pullback pocket: AH VWAP/BB upper band/38.2% fib cluster).
• Profit objective (24h): 200.8 (61.8% retracement, prior supply shelf).
• Risk context (not required but prudent): If managing risk, a stop would sit below 187.9–188.5 demand; R:R from 192.2 to 200.8 ≈ 8.6 up vs. ~4.0 down to 188.2, >2:1.

Bottom line: Favor buying a pullback into 191–193 with a 24h target around 200.8. If the market gaps and runs without offering 192s, momentum entries above 196–197 can still reach 199–201, but with reduced R:R.