NVDA Oversold Pivot Bounce: Tactical Long Aiming for R1 in the Next Session

Summary of the tape

• Ticker: NVDA (USD)
• Current price reference: 178.88 (11/21 close). After-hours print last seen ~180.15.
• 11/21 daily range and volume: High 184.56, Low 172.94, Close 178.88 on very high volume (~343M). Wide-range day with a long lower shadow and a close below the open.
• Context: From a late-October peak near 212, NVDA has carved a series of lower highs and lower lows. The last two sessions (11/20–11/21) show capitulation-like volume with a failed gap-up (11/20) and a large-range flush-and-rebound (11/21).

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Intermediate trend (weeks): Down-to-sideways since the 10/29 peak (~212). Lower highs: 207 (10/29 close), ~206–207 (11/3), 199 (11/10), 196 (11/12–11/20 gap area). Structure implies distribution below heavy overhead supply 190–200.
• Near-term trend (days): Bearish but stretched. Back-to-back heavy-volume declines drove price beneath short-/medium-term moving averages and below the lower Bollinger Band, setting up mean-reversion potential.
• Intraday (11/21): RTH opened ~181.24, flushed to 175.48, rebounded to 184.56, then faded to 178.88; after-hours ticked ~180.15. Buyers showed up aggressively sub-176; sellers defended 184–185 and faded rallies into the close.

Key levels (confluence)

• Supports: 172.9–173.1 (11/21 low; aligns with S1 from classic pivot), 175.5–176 (intraday shelf), 167.2 (S2), 170.8/170.6 (early Sept swing lows).
• Resistances: 181.2–182.0 (hourly supply/VWAP region), 183.8–184.6 (intraday high and R1 cluster), 186.5–187 (recent swing close), 190–196 (open gap and heavy supply; R2 ~190.4).
• Classic daily pivots (calc’d from 11/21 H/L/C = 184.56/172.94/178.88):
  • Pivot P ≈ 178.79
  • S1 ≈ 173.03; R1 ≈ 184.65
  • S2 ≈ 167.17; R2 ≈ 190.41 These line up extremely well with observed reaction zones.

Technical indicators and what they imply

1. Moving averages (approximations)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 182.8; 10-day SMA ≈ 187; 20-day SMA ≈ 193.0. Price (178.9) is below 5/10/20 SMAs, confirming a near-term downtrend but also indicating distance from the 20-day mean (room for reversion).
• 50-day trend is flattening to slightly up, but price is currently below it or testing it, reinforcing near-term weakness vs intermediate neutrality. Implication: Trend is down, but mean-reversion probability rises when price is extended below faster MAs and the 20D.

2. RSI

• 14-day RSI ≈ 29–30 (oversold). We estimated avg gain ≈ 1.43 vs loss ≈ 3.43, RS ≈ 0.42, RSI ≈ 29.5. Implication: Statistically elevated odds of a short-term bounce over the next 1–3 sessions, though oversold can persist in downtrends.

3. Stochastic oscillator

• Likely sub-20 with %K curling from deeply oversold on intraday timeframes. Implication: Early mean-reversion signal; confirmation improves on reclaim of the 20–30 band.

4. MACD (12/26/9)

• Below zero with negative histogram in recent days, but the pace of downside momentum abated intraday on 11/21 (flush then rebound; histogram likely narrowing on lower timeframes). Implication: Medium-term momentum is negative, but short-term downside momentum may be decelerating.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• 20D mid-band ≈ 193; lower band roughly in the low 181s. Close at 178.9 sits below the lower band. Implication: A close below the lower band frequently precedes a snap-back toward the mid/lower band area within 1–3 sessions, especially after a volume climax.

6. ATR and volatility

• ATR(14) estimated ≈ 7.5–8.5 given recent ranges; 11/21 true range was ~11.6. Implication: Elevated volatility. Intraday swings of 4–6 points are plausible; 8–12 points possible on expansion days. Position sizing and wider stops are necessary.

7. Volume/accumulation-distribution

• 11/20 and 11/21 printed the largest volumes in months, featuring a failed gap-up and a shakeout. Price closed weak on 11/21 but well off the day’s lows. This combination often coincides with a short-term selling climax/weak-hand flush and can mark a provisional low or lead to a 1–3 day reflex rally. Implication: Short-term exhaustion of sellers likely; overhead supply remains dense into 184–190+.

8. Market profile/intraday structure (11/21)

• Single prints and poor structure under 176 were quickly rejected; most trade concentrated ~178–182. VWAP likely around 180–181 during the session; close came slightly below that area but AH pushed back near it. Implication: Buyers defended mid-to-high 170s; sub-176 flush met strong demand.

9. Fibonacci context

• From 10/29 high ~212.2 to 11/18 low 181.4: 38.2% retrace ≈ 193.1, 50% ≈ 196.8, 61.8% ≈ 200.4. Recent rallies failed in the 196–200 zone, confirming a heavy supply pocket. Implication: Near-term upside likely capped below ~190 without fresh catalysts; 184–186 is the first significant test.

10. Candlestick behavior

• 11/20: large bearish candle on very high volume (gap-and-fail). 11/21: long lower tail shows dip-buyer presence; real body not tiny, but the extended wick suggests downside test rejection around 173. Implication: Potential short-term swing low attempt near 172.9–175.

11. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan/Kijun and below cloud on daily: bearish regime. However, distance from Tenkan/Kijun supports a snap-back toward those baselines (typically ≈ 181–186), matching our first resistance zones.

12. DeMark/Exhaustion (qualitative)

• Sequence of down closes and range expansion points toward a likely 8–9 count completion near 11/21. Often precedes a 1–2 bar upside reaction.

Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Base case (≈60%): Mean-reversion bounce into 181.2–182.0 first, then a probe of 183.8–184.6 (R1 cluster). Expect choppy trade with fades at resistance; best handled as a tactical long from sub-pivot levels.
• Sideways case (≈25%): Range 177–181 consolidates under VWAP/Pivot, with whipsaws; broader direction decision deferred to the next full session.
• Bear extension (≈15%): Loss of 176 leads to a retest of 173.0 S1; break of 172.9 opens 170.6–171.0. This path likely requires fresh negative catalyst or further market-wide risk-off.

Trade plan (tactical, 1–2 session horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip for a pivot-to-R1 mean reversion.
• Optimal entry location: Around/below the daily Pivot P ≈ 178.8. A limit near 177.8–178.2 captures typical opening volatility and offers favorable R:R against S1.
• Profit objective (next 24h): First target 181.8–182.0 (partial), main target 183.5–184.4 (R1 test). For this brief window, prioritize hitting into strength near 184 rather than stretching to 186.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but prudent): Below 174.7 (undercuts 11/21 intraday shelf while giving room for noise). More aggressive stops can sit just under 176, but expect higher whipsaw risk.
• Risk/Reward example: Entry 178.0, TP 184.4 (+6.4), stop 174.7 (-3.3) ≈ 1.9:1 R:R.

Catalyst and gap considerations

• Next 24h spans a weekend; cash session reopens next trading day. Expect gap risk. If gap-up opens >182, consider chasing only on pullbacks to VWAP/181.5 with tight risk. If gap-down toward 175–176, monitor for reversal patterns; failure to reclaim 178 pivot quickly would caution against longs.

Conclusion

• NVDA is near-term oversold (RSI ~29), below the lower Bollinger Band, and just above a strong S1/panic low zone (~173). Two-day volume climax and intraday rejection sub-176 favor a tactical bounce toward the 183.5–184.6 band over the next 24 hours. Trend is still broadly corrective with heavy supply overhead 190–200, so this is a short-term long setup, not a trend reversal call.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Probable path: Early probe of 181–182, then a test of 183.5–184.5. Failure at 181.5 would imply more chop; loss of 176 would warn of a 173 retest. Overall, odds favor a green-to-neutral session with resistance selling into mid-180s.

Note: This is a tactical view based solely on the provided chart data and standard technical methods. Always size positions appropriately for the elevated volatility.