NVDA: Pivot Reclaim Sets Up a 24h Relief Rally — Buy the Dip at 180.9, Aim for 187.8

NVDA ultra-detailed 24h trading read-through (all timeframes, multiple methods)

1. Price action and trend structure

• Higher time frame (daily, last 4 months):
  • Post-earnings surge peaked at 212.19 (10/29), then a sharp corrective leg to 172.93 (11/21), a -18% drawdown. That kind of vertical give-back often produces a reflex rally/mean-reversion before trend resolution.
  • Recent sequence: 11/20 high-volume selloff (close 180.64) → 11/21 capitulation low 172.93 → 11/24 green close 182.55. This is a classic “washout + bounce” setup.
  • Structure now shows a tentative higher low intraday today (176.48) versus Friday’s 172.93—bullish micro change of character.
• Intermediate trend: Down from late October highs. Lower highs and lower lows persist, but today’s action suggests a reactionary counter-trend bounce is underway.
• Short term (intraday 11/24):
  • Early liquidation down to 176.48, then steady bid back through 182–183, closing 182.55 and after-hours 181.91. Buyers defended the 176–178 pocket multiple times.
  • Several higher lows intraday and a second push to 183.48 show dip demand.

2. Key levels, support/resistance (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: 181.60–182.00 (late-day balance), 180.84 (classic floor pivot P, computed below), 178.20 (S1), 176.48 (today’s intraday low), 172.93 (swing low; must-hold for bulls).
• Overhead resistance/supply: 183.10–183.50 (today’s intraday highs), 185.20 (R1), 186.60–188.15 (dense supply cluster from 11/14–11/18), 187.84 (R2), 190.17–193.80 (bigger daily supply; aligns with 50% Fib zone ≈192.56).
• Read: Strong confluence around 186–188 (prior congestion + R2 + 38.2% Fib). Expect responsive sellers there on first touch.

3. Moving averages (context, not signals)

• 5-day SMA (approx): (181.36 + 186.52 + 180.64 + 178.88 + 182.55)/5 ≈ 181.99; price above this → micro momentum improving.
• 20-day SMA (exact from provided 20 closes): sum 3850.05/20 ≈ 192.50; price well below → short-term trend still down; mean reversion magnet above.
• 50-day SMA: likely near low- to mid-180s given Aug–Oct prints; price hovers around it—this is where battles often occur. Conclusion: below 20-SMA, near 50-SMA = counter-trend bounce inside a broader pullback.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) qualitative read: rebounded from oversold territory after Friday’s capitulation and today’s green close; likely in mid-40s to low-50s. That supports a short-term rebound with room before overbought.
• Stochastic: after a deep push down last week, turning up—supports a 1–2 day continuation higher unless price fails back under 180.
• MACD: still below zero-line (bearish), but histogram improving (less negative) as downside momentum wanes; this aligns with a tactical bounce, not yet a full trend reversal.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) visibly elevated (many 5–10 point daily ranges); expect outsized intraday swings. Planning around ±6–7 points makes sense.
• Bollinger Bands (20-period): price recently tagged/approached the lower band on 11/21; 11/24 push back toward the midline (which aligns with the 20-SMA ≈192.5). This favors further mean reversion higher into 185–188 if 180 holds.

6. Volume/flow

• 11/20–11/21: very heavy downside volume suggests capitulation flows. 11/24: strong but lower than the climactic down days—typical for a relief bounce start.
• OBV qualitative: downtrend from 10/29 peak, slight uptick today—early accumulation attempts, not confirmed trend reversal.
• Accumulation/Distribution: long lower tails on 11/21 and early 11/24 show dip buying near 173–176; supply overhead remains thick into 186–190.

7. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• 11/24 VWAP region sat around ~182; price recaptured and held above much of the afternoon—bullish micro cue. Late push to 183.48 then a modest fade is constructive if dips continue to be bought above 180.8–181.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price likely below the cloud and Kijun (given the sharp drawdown). Tenkan turning up. That supports a counter-trend bounce, with cloud resistance overhead (consistent with 186–193 supply zone).

9. Fibonacci mapping (10/29 high to 11/21 low)

• Range: 212.19 → 172.93 = 39.26.
• 38.2%: 172.93 + 0.382*39.26 ≈ 187.93.
• 50%: ≈ 192.56.
• 61.8%: ≈ 197.19.
• With price at 182.55, a common relief target is 38.2% ≈ 188; that lines up with R2 ≈ 187.84 and prior daily supply—excellent confluence as a near-term upside cap.

10. Floor pivots for next session (based on 11/24 H/L/C = 183.48/176.48/182.55)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = (183.48 + 176.48 + 182.55)/3 ≈ 180.84.
• R1 = 2P – L ≈ 185.20. S1 = 2P – H ≈ 178.20.
• R2 = P + (H – L) ≈ 187.84. S2 = P – (H – L) ≈ 173.84.
• R3 ≈ 192.20, S3 ≈ 171.20.
• Confluence: R2 ≈ 187.84 ≈ Fib 38.2% ≈ dense supply. P ≈ 180.84 matches the intraday balance and should act as first buyable dip if retested.

11. Candlestick read

• 11/21 looks like a capitulation/long lower wick day; 11/24 green follow-through above prior close = confirmation of demand. Today’s intraday W-shape and higher lows strengthen the case for a tactical bounce.

12. Market profile/auction logic (qualitative)

• Friday’s lower-tail suggests responsive buyers stepped in aggressively below 175. Today’s profile extended higher, accepted trade above prior value in the afternoon, and closed near session value high—favoring a test higher provided overnight futures don’t erase the gain.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bullish drift, 55–60%): Early probe lower toward 181.0–180.8 (pivot) or even 179.5–178.2 (S1) attracts buyers. Push toward 185.2 (R1) and a first tag of 187.8–188.0 (R2/Fib 38.2%). Expect responsive selling to fade that zone on first test.
• Bearish risk case (30–35%): Failure through 180.8 and then 178.2 opens 176.5. A break of 176.5 jeopardizes the bounce and risks a retest of 173–174 (S2) or even 172.9 (swing low).
• Low-probability squeeze (10%): Strong gap-and-go above 185.2 at the open, trend day to 188–190, fading late toward 186–187.

14. Synthesis of tools and their impact on the call

• Trend tools (MA, Ichimoku, MACD) = still broadly bearish but improving micro momentum → favors a counter-trend pop, not a full reversal.
• Mean reversion tools (Bollinger, 20-SMA magnet) = support upside toward 185–188 before heavier supply.
• Pivots/Fibonacci/resistance mapping = very clean confluence target near 187.8–188.0; strong first-touch fade area.
• Volume/flow = capitulation then accumulation attempts → decent edge to buy dips above 180.8 with defined invalidation.

15. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long idea: sustained trade below 178.2 (S1) or a break of 176.48 (today’s intraday low). Those would negate the higher-low structure and likely target 173–174 quickly.
• Given ATR, position sizing should assume ~3–4 points adverse wiggle from entry. Stop ideas (for your risk plan): 176.40–176.80 if filled near 180.9.

16. Trade plan (24h)

• Bias: Buy the dip at pivot support to ride the relief rally into the 187–188 confluence.
• Optimal entry: Buy limit around 180.90 (floor pivot P ≈ 180.84; round up slightly for fill fairness). Alternative: If market gaps above 185 at open, wait for a pullback into 185.2 (R1) to buy with a tight intraday stop.
• Profit-taking: 187.80 (R2/Fib 38.2%). First scale could be 185.20 if you prefer to reduce risk en route; final target remains 187.8 for this 24h window.

Bottom line prediction (next 24 hours)

• Expect an early dip toward 181.0–180.8 that holds, followed by a grind to 185.2 and a test of 187.8; sellers likely defend 188 on first touch. Close bias: 185–186 if the dip entry holds; failure below 178 invalidates.