NVDA’s Hammer After a Liquidity Sweep: Tactical Long Into 182–184 as Mean Reversion Takes the Wheel

Comprehensive multi-method technical analysis for NVDA (as of 2025-11-25, close ≈ 177.82)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Intermediate trend: Lower highs since 10/29 (212.19 → 199.94 on 11/10 → 191.49 on 10/27 retest → 183.50 on 11/24), establishing a descending trendline. Lower lows culminated in 11/21 (172.93) and today’s intraday sweep to 169.55 (and an extended print to 167.55 on a late bar), forming a potential double-bottom/stop-sweep zone at 173–170.
• Short-term regime: 11/20–11/25 featured capitulation-like volatility with very high volume (11/20: 343.5M; 11/21: 346.9M; 11/24: 256.6M; 11/25: 309.8M). That combination often marks a selling climax followed by basing. Today’s candle closed near session highs after a deep flush—classic reversal day behavior.
• Key levels from recent price action: • Support: 169.55 (today’s low), 167.55 (late bar spike), 172.93 (11/21 low), 173.82 (daily S2 from 11/24 pivots), 175.40 (8/20 close), 176.97 (61.8% retrace of 11/21→11/24 swing). • Resistance: 180.00 (psych/pivot), 181.77–182.55 (8/26 close and 11/24 close), 183.50 (11/24 high), 186.26 (10/24 close), 188.32–190.17 (10/13 and 11/14 closes), 195–201 (post-earnings supply area).

2. Candlestick/price action

• Today’s daily candle: Long lower shadow (low 169.55) and close near high (177.82), resembling a hammer following a swift decline—bullish reversal indication when at/near prior swing lows (172.93).
• Intraday behavior: Early collapse to 171.07 on opening hour, subsequent recovery, then a later liquidity sweep to 167.55 before rebounding to ~176.74 and settling 177.8. This sequence—downside sweep + immediate absorption + close near highs—suggests exhaustion of sellers and fresh demand around 170.

3. Volume/participation analysis

• Very high turnover across 11/20–11/25 signals potential capitulation and transfer of shares from weak to strong hands. Today’s heavy open print (≈108.8M in first 30–60m) plus late-day reversal is consistent with absorption by larger participants.
• Volume at price (inferred): Dense participation nodes 175–180 and 186–190; thinner 182–186. A move above 180–181 could accelerate through a lighter volume pocket toward 183–186.
• OBV (qualitative): Likely stabilized after a sharp November drawdown, consistent with a base attempt.

4. Moving averages (estimates from dataset)

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 182–185 and curling lower. Price (177.8) is below the 20-SMA—short-term still under pressure, but proximity allows mean reversion attempts.
• 50-day SMA: ≈ 185–188 and declining; serves as overhead resistance on rebounds.
• 100-day SMA: ≈ 180–182; price toggling around this zone; reclaiming and holding above ~181 would be constructive.
• Read: Short-term bearish trend backdrop, but price is extended below near-term averages and testing strong supports → bounce probability increases.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): mid-to-high 30s to low 40s after multiple down days and a strong intraday reversal—near oversold but turning up. Room for a rebound to neutral (45–50).
• Stochastics: Likely crossing up from oversold following the hammer day—a bullish short-term signal.

6. MACD

• MACD histogram negative for weeks post-10/29 peak; pace of downside appears to be moderating. A bullish histogram inflection often follows a reversal hammer near prior lows, setting up for a 2–4 day mean-reversion pop.

7. Volatility/ATR and 24h expected range

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ 8–10, reflecting the recent wide bars (ranges of 8–16 in mid/late November).
• Expected 24h range: roughly 172–184. Baseline pivot-driven magnet: 175–181.

8. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Middle band ≈ 184–185; lower band ≈ 175–176; upper ≈ 193–195.
• Today pierced or hugged the lower band intraday and closed above it—classic mean-reversion setup aiming toward the middle band on a multi-day basis; near-term, a push to 181–183 is plausible.

9. Keltner Channels (20, ATR-based)

• Price pressed the lower Keltner boundary on heavy range. Reversions toward the EMA20 (≈ 183) are common if selling pressure abates; confluence with Bollinger midline strengthens the 181–183 target area near term.

10. VWAPs

• Session VWAP (approx): 175.5–176.5. Close at 177.8 is above session VWAP after a deep undercut—bullish intraday reversal cue.
• Anchored VWAP from 11/21 low (172.93): likely sits ~177–178 after today’s volatility; reclaiming/staying above strengthens the base scenario. Anchored from 10/29 high would be above current price, serving as medium-term resistance.

11. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan likely below Kijun but poised to flatten after today’s reversal. A Tenkan reclaim and then Kijun test typically aligns with a 1–3 day bounce toward 181–184 before the bigger cloud resistance (≈ 186–190) is challenged.

12. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 1: 11/21 low (172.93) → 11/24 high (183.50), pullback 11/25: • 38.2% = 179.46; 50% = 178.21; 61.8% = 176.97. • Today’s close 177.82 is right near the 50–61.8% cluster—healthy pullback zone. Recovery back above 179.5 opens a retest of 183.5.
• Swing 2: 10/29 high (212.19) → 11/21 low (172.93): • 38.2% = 187.93; 50% = 192.56; 61.8% = 197.18. • Recent bounces failed below the 38.2–61.8% band, confirming medium-term downtrend; hence treat 186–197 as supply on rallies.

13. Classical pivots

• Using 11/24 H/L/C (183.50/176.48/182.55): P=180.84; R1=185.21; S1=178.19; R2=187.86; S2=173.82. • 11/25 traded beneath S2 then reclaimed S1 into the close—bullish mean-reversion pattern.
• For 11/26 pivots (using 11/25 H/L/C 178.16/169.55/177.82): P=175.18; R1=180.80; S1=172.19; R2=183.79; S2=166.57. • Expect magnet around P (175.2) and tests of R1 (180.8). A strong day can tag R2 (183.8).

14. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (heuristic)

• Structure resembles an ABC corrective leg down off 10/29: A into 11/21, B to 11/24, and a C leg attempted today that undercut A (intraday) but closed back above—a potential spring/terminal thrust.
• Wyckoff: Today looks like a spring and test within a developing accumulation range (170–183). Confirmation requires follow-through above 180–181 on expanding volume.

15. Pattern recognition

• Descending channel/falling wedge from 10/29 highs; today touched/undercut the lower boundary and bounced. A break back above 180–181 would target the top of the channel near 183–186.

16. Risk management and scenario analysis

• Bullish case (≈60%): Hold 173–175 on dips, reclaim 180.8 (R1), push into 182–183.8 within 24h as mean reversion continues.
• Bearish/invalidations (≈40%): Failure to hold 173–175, sustained trade below 172 opens 169.5/167.6. Given ATR, a break could accelerate; however, post-sweep absorption biases short-term to the upside.
• Positioning: Favor buying minor pullbacks into 176–177 with stops below 173.4 (beneath pivot S1 and 61.8% of micro swing) and targets 181.8–183.8 (R1–R2 confluence and prior supply).

17. 24-hour price path forecast

• Base case: Range 174.5–183.5 with bullish skew. Early probe lower toward 175–176 (pivot/micro support), then rotation higher through 179.5 (Fib 38.2) into 181.8–183.0. If momentum exceeds R1 quickly, an extension to 183.8 is feasible.

Conclusion

• Evidence converges (hammer after liquidity sweep, extreme volumes, proximity to multi-touch support, reclaim of VWAP, oscillators turning up, pivot behavior) toward a short-term rebound/mean-reversion over the next session. Medium-term trend remains down, so treat it as a tactical long into resistance, not a trend reversal—take profits into 182–184.