NVDA: Pivot Dance at 182 — Buy the Dip Near 180, Target 184.8 Within 24 Hours

NVDA ultra-detailed 24h technical roadmap (as of 2025-12-02 close, $181.46)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Big picture since late Oct: Blow-off run into 10/28–10/31 highs (peak ~212 intraday, closes ~201–207) followed by a sharp mid-Nov correction to the 11/25 swing low 169.55. Since then, price is basing between ~177 and ~186. The dominant theme is a corrective consolidation after a fast downside impulse.
• Current regime: Range-bound with a mild bullish tilt. Price sits above the 5- and 10-day moving averages but below the 20-day, signalling a young attempt to rebound within a broader consolidation.
• Market structure (daily): Higher low set 11/28 at 177.00 versus the panic low 11/25 at 169.55; subsequent highs capped in the 185–186 band. This frames a 177–186 box, with mid-box control near 181–183.

2. Key levels: Support/Resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Resistance cluster: 184.6–185.7 (12/02 R1 pivot = 184.75, intraday high 185.66, 50% fib of 11/10→11/25 downswing ≈ 184.30–185 area, prior supply block). Above that: 186.3 (20-day SMA), then 188.0–189.1 (late Oct/early Nov congestion, upper BB vicinity on any pop).
• Support cluster: 181.0–182.4 (intraday VWAP zone and daily pivot 12/02 ≈ 182.37, closing print just below), 180.8 (38.2% fib of 11/10→11/25 downswing), 180.0 round number, 179.9 (tiny 12/02 gap-into-12/01 close magnet ≈ 179.92), 179.1 (12/02 S1), 177.6–178.2 (volume node/box low buffer), 177.00 (11/28 swing low). Deep support: 174.5–175.5 if a liquidity sweep occurs.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• 5-day SMA ≈ 179.29: Price > 5SMA (short-term momentum positive).
• 10-day SMA ≈ 180.64: Price > 10SMA (near-term momentum improving).
• 20-day SMA ≈ 186.31: Price < 20SMA (intermediate trend still corrective). A mean-reversion pull toward 186 is feasible if 179–181 holds.
• Read-through: Short-term up, medium-term sideways/bearish, making bounces to the 20SMA likely to face supply initially.

4. Oscillators (overbought/oversold and momentum)

• RSI(14) ≈ 38.5 (estimated from the last 14 closes): off oversold, recovering, but below 50. This supports a rebound-from-support bias, not a runaway trend yet.
• MACD (qualitative): Below zero after November’s selloff; histogram likely contracting (bearish momentum fading). That favors buy-the-dip within range rather than chasing breakouts.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely mid-zone with upward slope; consistent with another push toward mid/upper range if supports hold.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) qualitative: Mid-band ≈ 186.3 (20SMA). Lower band estimated ~177–178, upper ~195–196 given recent realized vol. Current %B is low (≈0.23), indicating room to revert toward the mid-band; lower-band support already tested late Nov. A drift higher toward 184–186 is statistically favored if 179–181 support holds.
• ATR(14) estimate ≈ 5.5–6.0, consistent with recent daily ranges. Expect typical 24h swing potential of ~±3–6.

6. Fibonacci/mean-reversion confluences

• 11/10 high (199.05) → 11/25 low (169.55):
  • 38.2% = ~180.82 (today’s close sits just above),
  • 50% = ~184.30,
  • 61.8% = ~187.05.
• Price probed above the 50% zone intraday (185.66) and was rejected, then closed near the 38.2%. This is classic fib tag-and-reject behavior, often followed by a retest of the 38.2% or slight undercut toward 179–180 before another attempt higher into the 184–186 band.
• From the larger 10/28 high (~212.19) → 11/25 low (169.55): 38.2% ≈ 185.8, a near-perfect match with today’s intraday rejection zone. This strengthens 185–186 as a near-term ceiling.

7. Pivot points (12/02 session; classic)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = (185.66+180.00+181.46)/3 ≈ 182.37.
• R1 ≈ 184.75; S1 ≈ 179.09; R2 ≈ 188.03; S2 ≈ 176.71.
• We closed slightly below P and above S1, implying early next session path-of-least-resistance is a test of 181–182.4 and possibly a dip toward S1 ~179.1 where buyers should re-engage, with upside magnet near R1 ~184.75.

8. Volume and VWAP context

• Elevated volume clusters during 11/20–11/26 create a high-volume node in the 176–183 region. This often acts as balance/support; dips into 178–181 typically find responsive buyers.
• Intraday 12/02: Early spike to 185.66 faded with consistent supply; later balance around 181–182. Approximate session VWAP sits around ~181.8–182.2. Closing slightly below VWAP is mildly bearish for the open, but strong supports lie just beneath.
• A transient 21:00 UTC candle print showed a deep wick to ~174.23; the official daily low remained 180.00, suggesting a potential bad tick or ephemeral liquidity sweep. Even if real, it underscores aggressive dip-buying sub-177.

9. Candles and patterns

• Today (12/02) printed a long upper wick rejection from 185–186 with a close near the lower half: a “shooting-star-like” session beneath the 20SMA. Short-term, that discourages immediate breakout attempts but often sets up a buy-the-dip on the next test of 179–181.
• Multi-session: Rectangle/base 177–186 with an upward-tilted micro-structure (higher lows 169.6 → 177.0). A sustained break/close above 186.3 (20SMA) would target 188–191 next; below 177 opens 174–175.

10. Ichimoku (directional color, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) approximates near 182–183; Kijun (26) likely higher (~188–190). Price just under Tenkan/Kijun confluence implies short-term resistance overhead, but proximity to Tenkan supports a re-test attempt after a minor dip.

11. Seasonality and flows (qualitative)

• Early December seasonality can be constructive for large-cap tech. With breadth uneven and NVDA a high-beta bellwether, range expansion can resume quickly if the market stabilizes. However, absent a catalyst, expect range trade around pivots.

12. Probability tree for next 24h

• Base case (≈60%): Early dip toward 180.0–179.1 (gap-magnet 179.92/S1 179.09) finds buyers; intraday rebound targets 183.2–184.8 (near pivot-to-R1 band). Close likely 182.5–184.5.
• Bear case (≈25%): 179 fails on a strong market risk-off; price explores 177.6–178.2 and possibly 177.0. Probable bounce from there, but close sub-181.
• Bull case (≈15%): Minimal dip; holds above 181.2 and surges through 184.8 to test 186.0–186.5 (20SMA). Without a catalyst, sustained close >186.5 less likely on this 24h horizon.

13. Trading plan synthesis (confluence-driven)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 177–181 for a push back toward 184–186; avoid chasing strength into 185–186 resistance on first attempt.
• Optimal entry: Staggered limit buy around 180.1 (above S1 179.1; near 38.2% fib 180.8 and gap-magnet 179.9). This captures the common overnight/morning liquidity sweep.
• Target: 184.8–185.0 (at/just below R1 and today’s supply shelf); aggressive extension if momentum improves to ~186.0 (20SMA).
• Invalidation/stop (risk mgmt, not part of requested output fields but critical): Below 177.0 daily close or an intraday hard break <176.7 (S2), as that negates the range-hold thesis and opens 174.5–175.5.
• Risk/reward: Entry 180.1, stop 176.9 (~3.2 down), target 184.8 (~4.7 up) gives ~1:1.5. If extension to 186 (~5.9 up) prints, R:R improves to ~1:1.8.

14. Indicator-by-indicator summary

• MAs: 5SMA < 10SMA < 20SMA with price above 5/10 but below 20 = near-term rebound inside corrective trend → favor buy dips.
• RSI(14) ≈ 38.5 rising = momentum healing, not overbought.
• MACD: Negative, improving histogram = waning downside force; aligns with mean reversion up.
• Bollinger: Price near lower/middle band, room to mid-band 186 = supportive of 184–186 target.
• Pivots: P=182.37, S1=179.09, R1=184.75; closing under P implies dip first, then attempt at R1.
• Fibs: 38.2% (180.8) support; 50% (184.3) and 38.2% of the larger swing (~185.8) as resistance = perfect dip-buy/mean-revert setup.
• Volume/VWAP: Value concentrated 178–183; closing slightly below VWAP encourages a test lower before revert up.

15. 24-hour price path forecast

• Expect a probe into 180.8 → 179.9 (possibly down to ~179.1 on a quick flush), then a reversal push to 183.2–184.8. First touch of 185–186 likely stalls. If indices are supportive, a wick into 186.0 is feasible before settling back toward 183–185.

Decision: Buy (Long position) on a pullback toward 180.1; target 184.8 within 24 hours. If the market weakens materially and 179 fails cleanly, stand aside or re-engage near 177.6–177.0 with the same 184–186 target on bounce.