NVDA poised for a controlled bounce: buying the 184s for a 186–187 push within a tightening range

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis for NVDA as of 2025-12-09 close (approx. 18:00–22:00 UTC)

Context and recent structure

• Instrument: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
• Currency: USD
• Current price (last print): 184.97
• Recent daily regime (past ~6 weeks): Post-October breakout to the 200–212 region followed by a sharp mean reversion and a November vol-shock, then transition into a compressing range with repeated tests of 177–188. Current price is centered in the range and hugging short-term moving averages.

Price action and levels from the provided data

• Key swing zones:
  • October breakout peak cluster: 201.03–212.19 (10/28–10/29).
  • Heavy distribution gap-down zone: 190–196 (multiple mid-November supply days on high volume).
  • Range floor cluster: 176–178 (11/28 low 177.00; 11/20 close 180.64; 11/21 low 172.93 as capitulation tail; more recent swing low protection 179–181 early December).
  • Range cap cluster: 186–189 (12/8 high 188.00; repeated failures 186–189 area).
• Today (12/9) intraday range: 183.32–185.72; close 184.97; price recovered from early weakness and finished near session VWAP/median.
• Yesterday (12/8) range: 182.40–188.00; close 185.55, implying today’s pullback was a modest inside-day contraction relative to yesterday’s span.

Volume and participation

• Notable November supply: 11/20 and 11/21 volumes 343–347M on large ranges, characteristic of distribution and shock. Since then, volumes have moderated, indicating digestion.
• Recent sessions show stabilization with balanced close prints around 180–186, suggesting a high-volume node forming near 184–185 where both sides transact heavily.

Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• 20-day simple moving average (SMA20): Approx. 183.65 (computed from last 20 closes). Price (184.97) is above SMA20 by ~1.3, indicating mild short-term bullish tilt and acting as dynamic support.
• 50-day moving average (approximation): Recent 50-day window includes both Sept lower prices (170s) and Oct higher prices (190s–200s). Net effect: 50-SMA is likely near the mid-180s and flattening. With price near/above it, trend bias is neutral-to-slightly positive.
• 200-day trend: Not fully derivable from the given slice; however the strategic context since summer has been higher highs into October then mean reversion. For the next 24 hours, short-term MAs dominate; long-term trend is less relevant to the immediate trade.
• EMA stack (qualitative): After November’s reset, the short EMAs have re-flattened. With price recapturing the 20-day and holding above short EMAs on an inside day, risk skews toward a modest push higher inside the range.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (qualitative approximation): Neutral band, roughly high-40s to low-50s. There’s no overbought/oversold reading; a slight positive divergence vs. the 11/28 low (price made a higher low around 12/03–12/04 while momentum stabilized). Neutral RSI supports range-trading logic: buy near lower band/mean and sell into nearby resistance.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Histogram contracting toward zero and curling up after the November washout; signal line crossover risk is modestly positive. Near the zero-line implies momentum is not trending strongly, consistent with consolidation.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Mid-zone, likely crossing up from neutral given today’s recovery off intraday lows. Supports a near-term upward drift rather than a breakdown.

Volatility and range tools

• ATR(14) daily (approximation): Elevated by November shock but compressing; effective current daily realized range near 2.5–5.5, with an average around 4–5 if we include the shock days, and ~3–4 on the most recent subset. Today’s range (~2.4) indicates compression.
• Keltner Channels: With ATR contracting and price near mid-channel, a squeeze is evolving. This often precedes a range expansion; however, without a catalyst, the next 24 hours likely remain bounded by local pivot levels.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Center line ~183.65; upper band estimated high-188s to ~189; lower band high-177s. Price has re-crossed above the mid-band, a mild bullish tell within a range.

Market structure, supply/demand, and orderflow hints

• High-volume node (HVN) around 184–185: today’s close 184.97 sits on that node, implying near-term mean-reversion magnetism.
• Overhead supply: 186.0–188.2 features repeated sellers (12/8 high 188.00; pivot-derived R1/R2 areas near 186.0/187.1). The pocket 190–196 remains heavy supply from November.
• Demand shelf: 183.3–184.0 local intraday support (today’s low 183.32; yesterday’s S1 182.63; multiple recent wicks defending ~183–184). Below that, 181–182 is secondary demand; then 177–179 is the range floor.

Fibonacci mapping

• Using swing low 177.00 (11/28) to swing high 188.00 (12/8):
  • 38.2% retracement ≈ 184.70
  • 50% ≈ 182.50
  • 61.8% ≈ 180.30
• Today’s close 184.97 sits just above the 38.2% retracement and today’s low probed the mid-183s, validating the 38.2–50% zone as a responsive buy area. That alignment strengthens a mean-reversion long bias toward 186–187.

Pivot analysis (classical)

• For 12/10 session based on 12/9 H/L/C (185.72 / 183.32 / 184.97):
  • Pivot P ≈ (185.72 + 183.32 + 184.97) / 3 ≈ 184.67
  • R1 ≈ 186.02
  • R2 ≈ 187.07
  • S1 ≈ 183.62
  • S2 ≈ 182.27
• Interpretation: Price closed just above P; a push toward R1 at ~186.0 is the highest-probability test if buyers hold S1 ~183.6 on dips. R2 ~187.1 aligns with the top of the near-term resistance pocket.

Ichimoku (qualitative from available data)

• Tenkan (conversion, 9-period mid): Approx. (recent 9-day high 188.0 + low 173.68)/2 ≈ 180.84; price above Tenkan is a short-term positive.
• Kijun (26-period mid): Includes the late-October highs; likely sits above current price in the low-190s, representing medium-term resistance overhead. This layout (price > Tenkan but < Kijun) favors short-term bounces into resistance rather than trend continuation.
• Cloud context: Likely flat/overhead around 188–192; without a catalyst, expect first rejection near R1/R2.

VWAP and intraday context (from today’s intraday prints)

• Today’s session featured an early dip to 183.32 followed by a grind back to ~185. The last hour recaptured and hovered around session mean, finishing near VWAP/median at 184.97. That “VWAP recapture into close” is often a constructive tell for a modest next-day follow-through, particularly inside a tightening range.

ADX and trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX expected sub-20 following the volatility shock and subsequent compression. Low ADX is consistent with range behavior and increased efficacy of mean-reversion setups (buy supports, sell resistances) over breakout chasing.

OBV and accumulation/distribution (qualitative)

• OBV was hit hard during mid-Nov. Since then, the indicator likely stabilized with higher lows into December as price chopped. No obvious accumulation surge, but the absence of new distribution spikes on recent pullbacks supports a mild-bullish, fade-the-dip posture.

Pattern read and trading posture

• Pattern: Rectangle/range between ~177–188 with a large overhead supply shelf at 190–196. Within that rectangle, price is gravitating around the 184–185 HVN and the 20-day mean.
• Today’s inside/compression day near the midpoint, close above the 20-day SMA, and VWAP recapture into the bell all lean toward a day-2 continuation higher—likely into nearby resistance (~186–187), not a wholesale breakout.

Risk assessment and what invalidates

• Bull case for next 24h: Buyers defend S1 183.6–184.0 and push toward 186.0 (R1), potentially tagging 187.0 (R2).
• Bear/invalidations: A decisive break and hold below 183.3 (today’s low) opens 182.3 (S2) and then 181–182 demand; below 180.3 (61.8% retrace) would pivot the tactical view to sell rallies. Given ATR, a sub-183 sustained trade would likely delay the upside test.

Multi-technique convergence

• Mean reversion: Price above SMA20 and near Fib 38.2% favors bounce toward upper mid-band.
• Momentum: RSI neutral, MACD histogram curling higher = slight positive skew.
• Pivots/Fibs: Confluence at 186.0–187.1 as first target zone; strong alignment with recent swing failures.
• Volume profile: High-volume node at 184–185 should magnetize price on dips; shallow pullback entries are preferred.
• Volatility: Compressed day supports a controlled, 1–2 dollar drift rather than a wide-range breakout absent news.

24-hour outlook and scenario planning

• Base case (55–60%): Mild bullish continuation to 186.0–186.9 with intraday dips finding support near 184.2–184.6.
• Alt case (30–35%): Chop between 183.6 and 186.0, finishing near the pivot 184.7–185.3.
• Low-probability (10–15%): News-driven downside through 183.3 leading to 182.0–181.5; or upside surprise through 187.1 to test 188.0–189.0.

Trade construction (short-term tactical)

• Edge: Mean-reversion long from just below the close, keyed off 183.6–184.6 support band, targeting the 186–187 resistance cluster. Risk should be managed beneath 183.3 (today’s low) to avoid getting caught in a rotation toward 182.0.
• R:R: Entry ~184.4, Stop ~183.2 (−1.2), Target ~186.9 (+2.5) gives ~2.1:1 reward-to-risk, consistent with the observed volatility and pivot structure.

Decision logic summary

• Multiple tools align: SMA20 recapture, Fib 38.2% support, pivot confluence, VWAP recapture, neutral-but-tilting-up momentum, and tightening volatility—all suggest a modest, probabilistic push to R1/R2. Given heavy overhead supply above 188, targets should be conservative inside 186–187.5.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy the dip near 184.2–184.6 with a target into 186.8–187.1 within the next 24 hours, provided 183.3 holds on a closing/intraday basis. Expect continued range-bound behavior; we’re playing the mean-reversion bounce, not a breakout.