NVDA Coils on the 20-Day: Buying the 182 Shelf for a Push Toward 186

Summary view

• Instrument: NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 183.78
• Intraday close (last hourly): 183.78, with a late bar showing a spurious 174.24 print (likely an outlier/liquidity sweep/bad tick). Core session range clustered 182.0–185.5.
• Core read: Sideways-to-slightly-bullish consolidation around the 20-day moving average with well-defined support near 182 and supply into 185.5–186. Favor a buy-the-dip mean-reversion long into 182 support for a push toward 185.5–186 in the next 24 hours.

1. Price structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (Aug–Dec): After the late-Oct breakout to ~212, NVDA retraced sharply into late Nov (low ~172.93 on 11/21), then established a broad 178–188 consolidation range. Recent closes (Dec 1–10) oscillate 179–186, indicating equilibrium.
• Intermediate trend: Neutral to slightly bullish; price is sitting around the 20DMA and likely just above the 50DMA. The 200DMA is not precisely derivable from the provided subset, but by context it’s below current price, keeping the larger uptrend intact.
• Market structure: Recent swing low 11/21 at 172.93; lower high cluster around 188–191; repeated defenses of 179–182 area confirm a demand shelf. The 185.5–186 zone caps recent rallies, forming a near-term supply shelf.

2. Key levels (derived from daily and intraday)

• Support
  • 181.8–182.6: Repeated intraday basing today; multiple touches and rebounds; aligns with the 20DMA area.
  • 180.4–180.7: Prior close pivot (11/20 close 180.64) and reaction lows.
  • 179.0–179.9: Psychological round and recent range floor tests (Dec 1–3 cluster).
• Resistance
  • 185.5–186.3: Today’s intraday cap (~185.48) and recent failure zone (Dec 8–10 area). Confluence with anchored measures (see below) and Bollinger upper-mid region.
  • 188.0–189.6: Secondary supply; aligns with 38.2% retrace of the 212→173 decline and prior rejection cluster.
  • 191.0–192.6: Former breakdown/retest zone (and the 50% retrace of the 212→173 leg).

3. Moving averages and oscillators

• 20DMA (approx from last 20 closes): ~183.18. Current price 183.78 is modestly above, signaling slight bullish tilt.
• 50DMA (approx, given range since Sept): ~182–184, likely near current price; flat to gently rising.
• 200DMA (approx on partial data): Below price, trend still constructive on a longer arc.
• RSI(14): Neutral, estimated ~50–53. No momentum extremes, consistent with range-bound conditions.
• MACD (daily): Lines near the zero-line and flattening; momentum pause after the Nov washout and Dec rebound attempts.

4. Volatility, ATR, and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) daily (computed from provided ranges): ~6.16. Current daily ranges lately compressed to ~3–5 after the late-Nov vol spike, indicating cooling volatility but still ample intraday travel for 2–4 point scalps.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~183.2; lower band estimated ~177–178; upper ~188–189. Price hugging the mid-band suggests mean-reversion conditions with upside headroom to ~186–189 if buyers press.

5. Volume, participation, and VWAP context

• Volume: Late Nov showed capitulation-sized distribution (11/20–11/21). Since then, volume has normalized; 12/8 printed elevated activity on the failed push toward 188, confirming supply there.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price lagged early, reclaimed mid-day, and closed around/above session VWAP, reflecting dip absorption. That supports a slight bullish lean for next session’s open unless a macro shock intervenes.

6. Fibonacci structure (swing 10/29 high → 11/21 low)

• Swing high: ~212.19 (10/29)
• Swing low: ~172.93 (11/21)
• 38.2% retracement: ~187.7 (within the 188 zone of supply)
• 50% retracement: ~192.6 (next supply shelf)
• 61.8% retracement: ~197.4 Interpretation: The 186–189 area is a natural magnet/resistor; initial upside targets should respect 185.5–186 ahead of that heavier band.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative, using closes)

• Price near/just above a flat Kijun-like area (~183). Cloud likely thin after range compression. Flat Kijun and thin cloud favor mean-reversion and range trades; a decisive Tenkan/Kijun cross above with price staying above cloud would be a cleaner bullish confirmation on a break >186.

8. Market profile / volume profile read (qualitative)

• Value developing in 181–184; multiple re-acceptances of 182–183 show fair value. Tail above 185.5 indicates responsive sellers; tail below ~182.1 today shows responsive buyers.

9. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Small real body near the 20DMA, reflecting indecision but with defended lower wicks into 182. The 12/8 candle failed at 188; follow-through lower was limited, suggesting absorption rather than outright distribution.
• Intraday 12/10: Initial push to 185.7 faded to ~182; afternoon bid lifted it back to 183.8 into the close. The anomalous 174.24 print near 21:00 appears non-representative of supply/demand during regular hours.
• Pattern: Rectangle 178–188. Today’s action respects the rectangle midline (~183), favoring a ping-pong approach until a range break.

10. Statistical/quant techniques

• Mean-reversion setup: With price near the 20DMA mid-band, expectancy favors buying dips into 182 with exits near 185.5–186. Historical 1-day travel (~ATR fraction) supports a 2.5–3.5 point move as plausible.
• Regression channel (last 20 sessions): Slight upward bias; residuals not stretched. Suggests a mild positive drift probability.
• Probabilistic path (next 24h): 55–60% odds of testing 185.5–186 if 182 holds early; 35–40% odds of undercutting 182 toward 180.6; 10–15% odds of a clean breakout >186.3 without first retesting 182.

11. Risk management and trade design

• Rationale to lean long: Confluence at 182 (price memory + 20DMA + intraday basing) with defined invalidation just below 180.4. Overhead resistance at 185.5–186 offers a realistic 1.8–3.0 point upside from an 182.x entry with a 1.6–2.0 point risk—a 1.5–2.0x R:R skew.
• Invalidation: A decisive close below 180.4 or multiple 30–60 minute bars accepted sub-181.8 would negate the long and open 179.9/177 tests.

12. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (preferred, ~58%): Early dip or sideways open, buyers defend 182–182.6, turn up toward 184.6, then probe 185.5–186. Expect sellers to show at 186; take profit into first test.
• Bearish alt (~30%): Early supply pushes below 181.8; price explores 180.6. If 180.6 fails, 179–179.5 becomes the magnet. Long invalidated; flip bias to range low buys only after stabilization or consider tactical short bounces back to 181.5.
• Bullish breakout (~12%): Strong open, quick reclaim of 185.5–186 with volume; momentum could extend to 187.7–188.5. Fade cautiously unless breadth/volume confirm. If long from 182s, scale out into 186 and runner toward 187.7.

Conclusion

• The tape is balanced with a slight bullish lean around the 20DMA. The cleanest asymmetric trade is a buy-the-dip at ~182.1–182.6 targeting the 185.5–186 supply shelf within the next session. Respect invalidation below ~180.4.

Trade plan

• Entry: Buy limit 182.6 (optimal dip-to-support entry). If the market gaps up and does not pull back, pass or re-evaluate on a clean 186 breakout with fresh setup.
• Target: 185.8 (first test of supply, just under resistance to increase fill odds).
• Stop (not part of order fields but for plan): 180.4 (below shelf and prior pivot). Approx R:R ≈ (185.8−182.6)/(182.6−180.4) = 3.2/2.2 ≈ 1.45x; often improves with scaling or tighter intraday invalidation if price action confirms.
• Time horizon: Next 24 hours (one to two sessions including overnight/premarket).

Notes

• Treat the 21:00 low at 174.24 as a likely bad tick/liquidity sweep; it does not reflect regular-hours supply and should not anchor stops.
• Macro headlines can override this plan; if futures indicate a large gap, reassess around intraday VWAP and the 185.5–186 band.