NVDA Santa-Week Drift: Buy the VWAP Pullback, Aim for the 0.382 Fib

Summary view:

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation toward 185.5–187.5 after a successful intraday liquidity sweep and VWAP reclaim. Expect a grind higher in a holiday-thin tape, with dips to 182.6–183.2 likely getting bought. Alternate path: quick backfill to 181.6–182.0 before resuming higher.
• Decision: Buy the dip. Optimal limit near 183.3 (VWAP/pivot). Take profit into 186.5–187.2 zone to front‑run supply around the 0.382 Fib.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher timeframe trend (since late Oct): From the 212.2 peak (10/29), NVDA traced a persistent series of lower highs/lows to a capitulation low at 170.94 (12/17). That’s a medium-term downtrend.
• Short-term shift: Since 12/17, price put in a higher low structure and reclaimed key inflection levels (180.6 Fib 23.6%, 182–183 volume node), indicating a near-term bullish reversal inside a broader corrective regime.
• Today (12/22) intraday: Price ranged 182.35–184.16 on the daily, with an hourly liquidity sweep to 180.99 at 21:00 that was immediately reclaimed back above VWAP/pivot. That failed breakdown and close back near the highs of the intraday range is tactically bullish for the next session.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence-driven)

• Immediate intraday levels: • S3 180.83 (floor pivot projection) • S2 181.59 • S1 182.64 • Pivot ~183.40 (very close to session VWAP and heavy transaction zone) • R1 184.45 • R2 185.21 • R3 186.26
• Recent swing-derived levels: • 180.99 (today’s sweep low) → reclaimed; strong intraday support • 184.60 (intraday high cluster/neckline) → first breakout trigger • 185.50–186.30 (prior daily pivots and R2/R3) → near-term supply • 187.6 (0.382 retrace of 212.2 → 170.9) → major objective and likely cap in 24–48h • 189–191.5 (upper supply, 0.5 retrace) → stretch target beyond 24h • 178.2 / 175.0 / 170.9 (deeper supports if risk-off returns)

3. Moving averages (approximate, daily)

• 20‑DMA: ~181.5 and curling up. Price has reclaimed and is holding above, supportive of a short-term upswing.
• 50‑DMA: ~186–188 and gently declining. This should act as resistance on first test, aligning with our 186–187 profit zone.
• 100‑DMA: ~190–192 region, overhead supply. Takeaway: Short-term upside room to the falling 50‑DMA; medium-term downtrend not yet negated.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: Mid‑50s (approx). Lifted from sub‑40 on 12/17 to neutral-bullish. Not overbought, leaving room to push toward 60.
• MACD daily: Histogram has been improving; MACD line curling up toward a bull cross. A close above 184.6–186 would likely complete the cross, adding follow-through buying.
• Stochastics: Rising from oversold and not yet at extremes, consistent with a continuation pop.
• DMI/ADX: ADX low-to-mid teens and rising; early trend resumption signals, but not a strong trend yet. Favors a controlled grind rather than a surge.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: ~3.2–3.8 points. Today’s true range including the late sweep was ~3.17. A 24h move of ~1.5–2.5% (3–5 points) is statistically reasonable.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near 20‑DMA (~181.5). Upper band likely ~187.5–188.0. Current price in upper half with room to tag the upper band on a clean breakout.

6. Volume analytics

• Post‑capitulation (12/17) saw heavy volume, then a constructive reduction as price stabilized and advanced. That’s typical of early basing.
• 12/22 session volume clustered around 183.2–183.6; VWAP/pivot confluence makes that zone a high-quality reload point.
• OBV (qualitatively) ticking higher since 12/17; accumulation tone.

7. Fibonacci framework (Oct high → Dec low)

• Swing high: 212.19 (10/29)
• Swing low: 170.94 (12/17)
• Key retracements: • 23.6%: 180.6 (already reclaimed; now support) • 38.2%: 187.6 (primary 24–48h magnet) • 50%: 191.6 (bigger resistance; likely out of reach in 24h unless a squeeze) • 61.8%: 195.2 (stretch in a multi‑day rally) Implication: Current 183–184 sits between 23.6% and 38.2%. The path of least resistance is a push toward 187.6 if 184.6 breaks.

8. Pattern recognition

• Intraday hourly hammer at 21:00 with a long lower tail to 180.99, followed by immediate recapture → classic liquidity sweep/fake breakdown. Bullish for next session.
• Emerging inverse head-and-shoulders on a 30–60m composite since 12/11: • Left shoulder ~175 (12/12) • Head ~171 (12/17) • Right shoulder ~181 (12/19/22) • Neckline ~184.3–184.6. A sustained break targets 189–190 measured move, but first waypoint is 186–187.
• Daily candles: 12/17 hammer/long lower wick (capitulation), 12/19 strong up day, 12/22 small-bodied close near highs after a deep intraday test → constructive sequence.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below the thicker Kumo from the prior downtrend but has Tenkan > Kijun and Chikou rising toward price. Early bullish shift within a still-challenging cloud regime suggests rallies into cloud/MA resistance (186–190) are probable fade zones on first touch, hence taking profits before the 0.382–50DMA band is prudent.

10. Elliott wave lens (heuristic)

• Five-wave decline from 212→171 appears complete by 12/17. Current move likely an A‑B‑C corrective bounce with A in progress; typical targets: 0.382–0.5 retrace (187.6–191.6). Near-term: push into the 0.382 is consistent with other tools.

11. Session VWAP and profile (12/22)

• VWAP ~183.3–183.4, overlapping with the classic pivot (P=183.40). Multiple re-tests held. This is a high-confidence intraday support and optimal entry zone for a continuation trade.
• Value built at 183.2–183.6; late-day close above value after reclaim is bullish.

12. Options/flow inference (qualitative)

• Round strikes 185 and 190 likely carry meaningful open interest into a holiday week. Pin/magnet potential at 185–186 aligns with our R1/R2 band and first target. Any gamma imbalance can produce a slow drift higher, not a rip.

13. Statistical pathing and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Break 184.6 neckline → test R2/R3 185.2–186.3, partial stall, then probe 186.8–187.2 into the close or next morning. Close in 185.5–186.8 range expected if no macro shocks.
• Alt scenario (≈30–35%): Early dip to S1/S2 182.6–181.6 on profit-taking, then buyers defend 181.6–182.0 and push back to 184–185 by end of session.
• Bear tail risk (≈5–10%): Loss of 180.8 (S3) turns the move into a failed breakout; slide toward 179.0–178.2 before stabilizing. Low probability barring negative catalysts.

14. Trade plan synthesis

• Why Buy: Short-term momentum turn, VWAP/pivot reclaim, liquidity sweep failed, RSI not overbought, MACD improving, and a clean upside path to 186–187 (0.382 Fib + falling 50‑DMA) within 1 ATR.
• Entry: Prefer buying a controlled pullback to 183.3 (VWAP/pivot confluence). Acceptable range 182.9–183.5.
• Take profit: 186.5–187.2 to front‑run 0.382 Fib/50‑DMA and likely options pin. Selected target: 186.8.
• Invalidation (for risk control, not part of order output): A decisive break and 30–60m hold below 181.0–180.8 would negate the setup; in that case, reassess for 179.8–178.2.

15. Final 24h outlook and timing

• Expect an early attempt to take out 184.45–184.60. If successful, momentum likely carries into 185.2–186.3. Into thin holiday liquidity, the tape tends to drift rather than explode; thus, scale out as 186 approaches and aim to be flat around 186.8.

Conclusion: Bias is Buy on dip with a tactical target just below clustered resistance. Favor a limit entry near 183.3 and taking profits into 186.8 within the next 24 hours.