NVDA at $185 Pivot: Intraday Rejection at $187 Signals a 24h Pullback Toward $183 Support

NVDA 24h Outlook: Bounce Attempt Inside a Wider Range — Momentum Mixed, Key Level = ~$185

1) Market context from provided data (Daily + Intraday)

• Current price: 184.94 (latest print ~184.83–184.94)
• Last daily close (2026-01-12): 184.94
• Recent regime (daily):
  • Strong rally into late Oct peak ~212.19 (10/29 high), followed by a deep drawdown into late Nov / mid Dec lows ~169.55–170.31.
  • Since mid Dec low, price has rebounded but has been choppy / range-bound.
• Near-term daily structure (late Dec → early Jan):
  • 12/23 close 189.21, 12/26 close 190.53 → failed to continue higher.
  • 01/02 close 188.85 → then drifted lower to 185–187 area.
  • 01/12 daily candle: O 183.22 / H 187.12 / L 183.02 / C 184.94: intraday push up toward 187, then faded back under 185.

2) Trend & market structure (price action)

A) Swing levels / support-resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance zone: 186.9–187.2
  • Tested intraday (hourly highs 186.88–187.12) and rejected.
• Pivot / decision level: ~185.0
  • Market repeatedly rotates around mid-180s.
• Nearest support zone: 183.0–183.7
  • 01/12 daily low 183.02; also a clear intraday base early session.
• Major support: ~175–176
  • Multiple prior daily lows (mid/late Dec) and psychological zone.
• Major resistance above: 188.6–190.5
  • Multiple closes/opens in late Dec; prior supply area.

B) Pattern read (daily + intraday)

• Daily: Price is in a post-downtrend basing/range after the 212 → 170 selloff. The rebound is real, but not yet a clean trend reversal because it keeps failing around 189–193.
• Intraday (hourly 01/12):
  • A steady climb from ~182.5 to ~187.1 suggests buyers active, but the sharp fade back to ~184.9 indicates supply overhead and likely mean reversion within the range.

3) Momentum indicators (inferred from closes)

(Exact indicator values require full calculation; below is signal-based inference from the sequence.)

A) RSI-style momentum (price behavior)

• The move from mid-Dec low (~170.94 close on 12/17) to late-Dec highs (~190.53 close on 12/26) implies RSI recovered from oversold.
• Early Jan drift (188.85 → 188.12 → 187.24 → 189.11 → 185.04 → 184.86 → 184.94) implies momentum has cooled; RSI likely mid-range (45–55) rather than bullish >60.
• Takeaway: No strong momentum edge; conditions fit a range-trading environment.

B) MACD-style momentum (trend of trend)

• Strong positive impulse late Dec likely put MACD > 0, but the subsequent sideways-to-down week suggests MACD histogram compressing (loss of upside momentum).
• Takeaway: Bullish impulse fading, risk of another downswing within the broader range.

4) Volatility & risk (range/ATR logic)

• Recent daily ranges often 3–6+ dollars; today’s range was ~4.10 (187.12–183.02).
• That implies a plausible 24h move window of roughly ±2–3% (about $3.5–$5.5) under normal conditions.
• Intraday had an abnormal-looking hourly low print (175.84 at 21:00) that is likely a data artifact/outlier relative to surrounding prices; excluding that, realized intraday volatility still supports $2–$4 swings.

5) Volume / participation clues

• Big volume spikes in late Nov (capitulation-like days) and mid/late Dec (reversal attempts).
• 01/12 daily volume ~135.8M is solid but not extreme; suggests active rotation, not a breakout day.
• Intraday: volume clustered during the push to 187 and during the fade—consistent with distribution near resistance.

6) Probabilistic 24-hour forecast (next session)

Given:

• repeated rejection near 187,
• close under the key pivot 185,
• lack of sustained momentum through 188.6–190.5,

Base case (higher probability):

• Mean reversion / drift lower toward 183.0–183.7 support, with potential wick probes.

Alternative case (lower probability but important):

• If price reclaims and holds >187.2 (hourly/daily acceptance), short thesis weakens and price can rotate back to 188.6–190.5.

7) Trade decision (24h tactical)

Bias: Short-term Sell (short) from resistance rejection, aiming for a rotation back to support.

• Rationale: Market showed it can’t hold the 187 area; closing back below 185 favors a retest of 183.

8) Optimal order placement (entry/exit)

• Because current price (~184.9) is mid-range, the best risk/reward for a short is typically on a pullback toward resistance rather than selling the middle.

Plan (preferred):

• Open (Sell/Short): 186.80 (limit)
  • Just below the ~186.9–187.2 rejection band to increase fill probability while still selling near supply.
• Close (Take profit): 183.40
  • Near the 183.0–183.7 support zone where buyers previously defended.

(If price never bounces to 186.8, the “optimal” entry simply won’t trigger; that is intentional to avoid shorting the middle of the range.)

24h directional call: Mildly bearish / range-down toward ~183.4.