NVDA Pressing Into $192–$193 Supply: Dip-Buy Setup Aiming for a $195–$196 Liquidity Run

Market Snapshot (NVDA)

• Current price: $191.52 (latest tape shows ~$192.28 at 22:00)
• Timeframe provided: Daily (Sep 2025 → Jan 28, 2026) + intraday hourly bars (Jan 28)
• Key context: Price has rebounded from the Jan 20 dump low ~$177.61 back to the $191–$192 area, approaching prior supply.

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1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure

Daily structure

• Swing high (late Oct): ~$212.19 (10/29)
• Major drawdown (Nov): broke down into $170s with capitulation volume (11/20–11/25 period).
• Base/repair (Dec): formed a bottoming zone around $170–$176, then recovered into the high $180s.
• Recent impulse: Jan 20 marked a sharp selloff to $177.61, followed by a V-shaped recovery into $191–$192.

Interpretation: Medium-term is still repairing a prior downtrend from the October high, but short-term (last ~6 trading days) momentum is bullish.

Intraday structure (Jan 28)

• Hourly bars show repeated acceptance around $191–$192 with a late push to ~$193.11 high.
• Pullbacks are shallow (mostly holding above ~190.9–191.1 intraday) → indicates buyers defending dips.

Interpretation: Immediate order flow is bid, but price is now pressing into a known overhead resistance band.

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2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)

Resistance (supply zones)

• $192.35–$193.11: today’s intraday highs / breakout test.
• $195–$197: prior congestion (early Jan + mid-Nov reaction zone).
• $201–$203: major pivot from late Oct/early Nov; strong supply likely.

Support (demand zones)

• $190.00–$190.90: near-term intraday demand (multiple hourly lows ~190.87–191.11).
• $187.5–$188.7: prior daily closes (1/23 ~187.67, 1/27 ~188.52) = first meaningful daily support.
• $182–$184: breakdown/reclaim zone from mid-Jan.

Key takeaway: Upside room exists, but risk/reward deteriorates if entering long at $191.5–$192.3 directly under resistance.

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3) Moving Averages (Trend Confirmation)

(Computed conceptually from the sequence; exact values not provided, but behavior is inferable.)

• Short-term MA (5–10 day): rising strongly due to the rebound from 178 → 192.
• Intermediate (20–50 day): likely flattening to slightly down/sideways after the Nov–Dec base and Jan volatility.

Implication: Short-term trend is bullish (price > rising short MA), but intermediate trend is not fully re-established → rallies can stall at supply zones.

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4) Momentum Indicators (RSI/MACD style read)

RSI-style reasoning

• The push from ~178 to ~192 in ~6 sessions is large; RSI on a short lookback is likely approaching overbought (60–70+).
• However, RSI can remain elevated in trend legs—overbought is a condition, not a sell signal.

MACD-style reasoning

• The rebound likely produced a bullish MACD cross (fast line accelerating above slow) with expanding histogram.
• As price nears resistance (~192–193), histogram often starts to decelerate even if price inches higher—common pre-pullback behavior.

Implication: Momentum supports one more push up, but probability of a pause/pullback increases near $193–$195.

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5) Volatility & Range (ATR-style)

Using recent daily ranges:

• Many recent daily high-low ranges are roughly $3–$6 (larger on selloff days).
• A reasonable 1-day expected move is around $3–$5.

24h expectation: A typical next-day envelope could be roughly $188.5 to $195.5 (not a guarantee—just an ATR-like context).

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6) Volume & Effort vs Result

• The Jan 20 selloff had very high volume (~223M), followed by a strong rebound with solid but not blow-off volume.
• Jan 28 daily volume ~141M—healthy participation on an up day.

Interpretation: The rebound looks like real demand, not just thin-market drifting. That supports continuation attempts.

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7) Pattern/Setup Recognition

• V-reversal / sharp reclaim from Jan 20 low suggests a “failed breakdown” dynamic.
• Price is now challenging a local ceiling (192–193). If it breaks and holds, it can run a liquidity sweep into 195–197.
• If it fails at 192–193, a pullback into 190.5 or 188.5 is the cleaner dip-buy zone.

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8) Scenario Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Base case (higher probability): Bullish continuation with resistance churn

• Early push/test above $193.10, then either:
  • grind toward $195–$196, or
  • reject and mean-revert to $190.5–$191 before another attempt.

Alternate case: Rejection / bull trap

• Failure to hold above $192 → drop toward $188.5–$189 support.

Given the strong short-term impulse and supportive volume, I slightly favor continuation, but I prefer not to chase at the top of the micro-range.

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Trade Plan Logic (Risk/Reward)

• Chasing long at $192+ puts entry directly under known supply (192–193, then 195–197) with limited upside and higher pullback risk.
• A better long is on a pullback entry into first support where buyers previously defended.

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Final Call

Decision: Buy (Long)

• Bias: short-term bullish, expecting a retest of $193 and potential extension toward $195–$196 within ~24 hours.
• Optimal entry: wait for a dip to support rather than buying the breakout late.

Key levels to watch:

• Bullish confirmation: acceptance above $193.10
• Invalidation (near-term): sustained trade below $188.5–$189.0 (would imply rebound is failing)