NVDA: Failed Breakout Near $191 Signals “Sell-the-Rally” Setup Toward $184 Support

1) Market structure (daily)

Last price (now): $185.61 (last print in the hourly feed ~185.04)

Primary trend (Oct → now)

• Oct rally: strong impulsive move from ~180s to ~212 (10/29 close 207 after 10/28 spike).
• Nov drawdown: sharp distribution and selloff to the low 170s (11/21 close 178.88; intraday low 172.93).
• Dec base / recovery: low put in around 170.31 (12/17 low) then recovery to ~190-192 by late Dec.
• Jan range: mostly sideways-to-slightly-up until late Jan; then failed push above 190–194 and rolled over.

Key takeaway

Price is in a broad range with repeated failures at 190–194 resistance and supports around 183–180, with the deeper “line in the sand” at ~178–172.

---

2) Immediate price action (most recent daily candles)

Recent closes:

• 01/28: 191.52
• 01/29: 192.51
• 01/30: 191.13
• 02/02: 185.61 (day range 184.88–190.30)

This is a clear 2–3 day downside impulse from ~192.5 to mid-185s.

• 02/02 printed a lower low and lower close vs prior sessions.
• The day’s rejection from 190.30 indicates supply overhead.

Interpretation: short-term trend has turned bearish inside the larger range.

---

3) Intraday (hourly) tape read – what happened today

Hourly sequence shows:

• Early grind up to ~189.45, then a spike attempt to ~191.13 (13:00 bar),
• Followed by sustained selling into ~186.18 (19:30 bar low 186.08), then another leg to ~185.01, and prints near 185.04.

This looks like a bull trap / failed breakout attempt, then trend day down in the second half.

Micro-structure: the sharp break from ~189.9 to ~186 with continued weakness suggests weak dip-buying and aggressive offers at/near 189–190.

---

4) Support / resistance mapping (price levels that matter)

Resistance (where shorts tend to work)

• 186.60–187.20: near-term supply (seen in last hours; also around today’s open 187.20).
• 188.60–189.20: intraday pivot zone (multiple hour closes ~189.14–189.92 before breakdown).
• 190.30–191.10: today’s high / failed breakout area.
• 192.50–194.50: late-Jan swing zone; major overhead.

Support (where bounces can occur)

• 184.90–185.10: today’s low region / current price congestion.
• 183.90–184.20: minor shelf (prior daily lows in the area; also a natural next “stop cluster”).
• 182.80–183.20: more meaningful local support (multiple prior daily closes/turns).
• 180.00–181.00: psychological + prior basing.

---

5) Momentum & mean reversion (indicator-style inference from the series)

Even without computing exact values, the price sequence supports these momentum conclusions:

RSI-like behavior

• The drop from ~192.5 → ~185 over a few sessions implies RSI is falling toward/into neutral-to-oversold on short timeframes.
• Oversold conditions can spark dead-cat bounces, but oversold is not a buy signal when structure is making lower highs.

MACD-like behavior

• Late Jan push to 192+ followed by failure and a strong red day suggests MACD rollover / bearish cross on shorter lookbacks.

Moving averages (behavioral)

• The market is below the near-term “value” area around 188–190 (where it spent much of late Dec/Jan).
• That makes 188–190 a likely sell-the-rally zone for the next 24 hours.

---

6) Volatility & risk context

• Recent daily ranges are 3–6 dollars; today’s day range was **$5.42 (190.30–184.88)**.
• This elevated range suggests wide intraday swings; the “optimal open” is therefore better placed at a retest of resistance rather than chasing the low.

---

7) Pattern & scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Dominant pattern

• Failed breakout / rejection near 190–191 and breakdown back into 185.
• Structure suggests bear flag / retracement potential: price may bounce first, then continue down.

Base case (most likely)

• First: relief bounce from 184.9–185.1 up toward 186.6–188.0 (short-covering + mean reversion).
• Then: sellers defend 188–189 (prior pivot) and price rotates down, potentially testing 183.8–184.2.

Bull case (lower probability)

• Price reclaims and holds 189.2 and breaks back above 190.3 (would negate today’s breakdown). Given today’s rejection and lower close, this is less likely in the next 24h.

Bear case (tail risk)

• A weak open and quick loss of 184.8 could accelerate to 183.2 then 181.

24h directional bias: bearish-to-neutral with expectation of lower lows unless 189–190 is reclaimed.

---

8) Trade plan (decision + optimal open)

Given the short-term downtrend, overhead supply at 188–190, and today’s breakdown structure, the higher-probability setup is to Sell (short) on a bounce into resistance rather than selling into the hole.

• Decision: Sell
• Optimal Open Price (short entry): $187.20
  Rationale: near today’s open / near-term supply zone; reasonable chance of a bounce retest while keeping risk tighter than waiting for 189–190.
• Close Price (take profit): $183.90
  Rationale: next meaningful support band; aligns with a typical continuation move after a failed breakout.

(Risk note for execution: if price instead reclaims and holds above ~189.20–190.30, the bearish thesis weakens materially.)