Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA Breakdown After High-Volume Selloff: Favor a Short on the 174–175 Retest Over the Next 24 Hours
Price context (NVDA)
- Current price: 171.88 (last print ~171.39–171.88 in your feed)
- Recent swing high: ~194.49 (2026-01-30)
- Recent swing low: ~171.03 (2026-02-05 intraday low 171.03; after-hours data shows a deeper spike low ~167.62 but that candle looks anomalously wide)
1) Multi-timeframe trend & market structure
Daily structure (primary signal)
- From 2025-10 to late-2025, NVDA transitioned from a peak ~212 (10/29) into a broad distribution → downtrend, with multiple high-volume selloffs.
- January 2026 attempted a recovery to ~194.5 but failed; then Feb 3–Feb 5 produced a sharp breakdown:
- 02/03 close: 180.34
- 02/04 close: 174.19
- 02/05 close: 171.88
- That sequence is a classic impulse leg down (lower highs + lower lows) and suggests the market is repricing to a lower value area.
Structure call: Daily is bearish (lower low below the 01/20 dip area and accelerating).
Intraday (hourly) structure (tactical signal)
- Hourly candles show failed bounces: rebound to ~175.77 then rolling back down to ~171.82.
- Repeated closes below ~174 indicate supply overhead (sellers active on rallies).
Tactical call: Short-term is also bearish-to-neutral, with bounce attempts being sold.
2) Momentum analysis (price-action + RSI-style inference)
Even without computing exact RSI, the 3-day cascade (185.61 → 180.34 → 174.19 → 171.88) implies:
- Momentum is strongly negative.
- Conditions are likely approaching oversold, which increases probability of snap-back rallies, but oversold in a breakdown often means “oversold can stay oversold.”
Implication: Expect volatile two-way trade, but bias remains down unless price reclaims key resistance.
3) Volatility, range, and risk regime (ATR-style inference)
Recent daily ranges expanded:
- 02/03: High 186.27 / Low 176.23 (large range)
- 02/04: High 179.58 / Low 171.91 (large range)
- 02/05: High 176.81 / Low 171.03 (still elevated)
This is consistent with an ATR expansion phase, typically seen during capitulation / trend acceleration.
Implication for next 24h: Higher probability of trend continuation moves and stop-runs above nearby resistance before continuation lower.
4) Key levels (support/resistance, supply/demand)
Immediate resistance (sell zones)
- 173.90–175.30: prior intraday consolidation and bounce peak (~175.28).
- 176.80–177.60: intraday highs and prior hourly opens (177.16–177.57 area).
Immediate support (buy-to-cover / downside targets)
- 171.00–171.30: today’s regular-session low area.
- ~169.55: prior daily low (2025-11-25 low 169.55) = important historical support.
- ~167.60: after-hours spike low in your feed (treat with caution; could still act as a magnet).
Level conclusion: Below 171 breaks into an air pocket toward 169.5, then potentially 167–168.
5) Volume / effort vs result (Wyckoff-style read)
- The breakdown days (02/03–02/05) show very heavy volume (~200M+), while rebounds are weaker.
- That pattern often reflects distribution / liquidation, not accumulation.
Implication: Until proven otherwise, rallies are more likely relief rallies to sell, not trend reversals.
6) Pattern & price behavior
Bear flag / breakdown retest scenario
- The move from ~191 (01/30) → ~171 (02/05) is the flagpole.
- The intraday bounce attempts toward 174–176 resemble a bear-flag drift.
Implication for next 24h: Higher odds of:
- Retest 174–176, then
- Continuation down toward 171 → 169.5.
7) Probabilistic 24-hour forecast (base case vs alternates)
Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation with a retest
- Early: bounce/mean reversion into 174.0–175.5
- Then: sellers defend, pushing price back to 171, and possibly 169.5
Alternate A (lower probability): sharp short-covering rally
- If price reclaims and holds above 176.8–177.6, squeeze could extend toward 180.
- Given the dominant downtrend + overhead supply, this is less likely without a catalyst.
Alternate B (tail risk): breakdown acceleration
- Clean break below 171.0 could accelerate quickly to 169.5, and potentially 167–168.
Trade decision synthesis
- Trend (daily): down
- Momentum: negative
- Volatility: expanding (favors trend continuation)
- Levels: strong overhead supply at 174–177
Net: Favor Sell (Short) on a bounce into resistance, rather than chasing the low.
Suggested execution (next 24h)
Idea: Sell the retest of broken support (now resistance).
- Prefer entry in the 174.80–175.30 zone (best balance: close to resistance; avoids shorting into support at 171).
- Profit-taking into 169.80–170.20 (front-run the 169.55 major support).
Note: This is a technical setup based solely on your chart data; real execution should include a stop plan and awareness of news/earnings/macro events.