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NVDA icon
NVDA
▼
Prediction
Price-up
BULLISH
Target
$196.8
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-02-09
22:00
Analyzed

NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA’s High-Volume Reversal: Buy-the-Dip Setup Targeting a 194 Retest and 197 Extension

Market snapshot (NVDA)

  • Current price: $190.04 (last print ~190)
  • Latest daily candle (2026-02-09): O 184.26 / H 193.66 / L 184.00 / C 190.04, Vol 195.2M
  • Context: Sharp rebound after a multi-day selloff into 2/5 (171.88 close), followed by a powerful reversal day (2/6 close 185.41) and continuation strength today.

1) Trend & structure (multi-timeframe)

Daily trend (intermediate)

  • From late Oct highs ~212 (10/29 close 207.04; intraday 212.19) price sold off into Nov lows ~173–180, then entered a broad range/mean-reversion regime through Dec–Jan.
  • Early Feb saw a breakdown leg: 2/03 close 180.34 → 2/04 close 174.19 → 2/05 close 171.88.
  • 2/06–2/09: strong counter-trend rally. Today’s daily candle is a wide-range bullish expansion that reclaimed the psychologically important 190 area.

Interpretation: Intermediate trend since late Jan is still “repair mode” after a downside impulse, but the last two sessions strongly suggest a tradable upside swing (short-covering + dip-buying) with improving momentum.

Key swing levels (support/resistance map)

Using repeated pivots and congestion zones from the provided dailies:

  • Major supports:
    • 171–176: breakdown base (2/04–2/06 lows), demand zone.
    • 180–182: prior shelf (multiple closes in Nov/Dec/Feb).
    • 184–185: today’s breakout origin (open/low area).
  • Near-term resistances:
    • 192–194: recent swing zone (1/28–1/30 highs; today’s intraday high 193.66).
    • 195–197: overhead congestion from Dec/Jan (e.g., 12/23 high 189.33 then later 191–193 area repeatedly).
    • 200–203: larger psychological + prior acceptance (many closes near 201–203 in late Oct/early Nov; 10/28 close 201.03).

Market is currently sitting right beneath a very obvious resistance band (192–194). That matters for the next 24h: upside is possible, but first pullbacks are common after such an expansion candle.

2) Price action & candlestick read

The reversal sequence

  • 2/05: close near lows at 171.88 after persistent selling.
  • 2/06: bullish recovery day (close 185.41) with large range → classic reversal/short-cover signal.
  • 2/09: another wide-range day (H 193.66) and close 190.04 → confirms buyers defending higher prices.

Candle quality today

  • Close (190.04) is well above open (184.26) = bullish.
  • But close is below the high (193.66), leaving an upper wick vs resistance.

Implication: Bullish continuation bias, but odds favor an initial retracement/consolidation toward 188–186 before another attempt higher.

3) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-like reasoning)

Recent daily true ranges are elevated:

  • 2/06: ~12.4 points (174.60 → 187.00)
  • 2/09: ~9.66 points (184.00 → 193.66)

A reasonable 24h expected move (not a precise ATR calc, but range-regime based) is ~6–10 points.

  • From 190, that implies a likely 24h envelope roughly $184–$198 (with tails possible).

4) Volume / participation

  • Volume remains very high during the rebound:
    • 2/05: 206M (capitulation-ish)
    • 2/06: 230.9M (reversal confirmation)
    • 2/09: 195.2M (follow-through)

Interpretation: This looks like a real positioning unwind/rebuild, not a low-liquidity bounce. High volume on up days after a selloff often supports further upside attempts over the next sessions.

5) Moving averages (inferred positioning)

While exact SMA values aren’t computed here, the price action suggests:

  • NVDA spent much of Dec/Jan around ~185–190.
  • The breakdown to 171 likely pushed price under key short-term averages.
  • The snapback to 190 likely means price is reclaiming short-term averages (e.g., 10–20 day) but may still be below/near a flattening intermediate average.

Implication: Early-stage trend reversal behavior: bullish, but overhead supply is still present.

6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

  • The 2/03–2/05 drop likely drove RSI into oversold/near-oversold.
  • The 2/06–2/09 surge likely produced a sharp RSI rebound (a “V” momentum profile).

Implication: Momentum is currently bullish, but short-term can be slightly overextended; that supports “buy the dip” rather than chasing.

7) Intraday (hourly) microstructure from 2/09

Key observations from the hourly series:

  • Early session traded ~183–185, then major expansion at 14:30 bar: O 184.10 / H 193.66 / L 184.00 / C 190.66 with huge volume → breakout impulse.
  • Subsequent hours: mostly holding ~191–192 then a later volatility event around 21:00 showing a deep wick to ~176.82 (very likely an outlier/print anomaly or a liquidity dislocation). Regardless, price returned to ~190.

Interpretation: The market accepted ~190 as a settlement area after the impulse, which is constructive. But the most tradable edge is typically buying a pullback to the breakout origin (186–188) if it occurs.

8) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): Bullish consolidation then retest of highs

  • Expect an early pullback/consolidation into 188 → 186.5.
  • Then another push toward 192–194.
  • If 193.66 breaks with acceptance, extension toward 196–198 becomes plausible within 24h.

Alternative case: Failure at resistance (192–194) and deeper mean reversion

  • If price rejects 192–194 and loses 188, next supports are 185 then 182.

Probabilistic lean

Given the high-volume reversal + reclaiming 190, I lean bullish for the next 24h, but with a preference to enter on a dip rather than at market.

9) Trade plan (optimal open/close from current context)

Decision framework

  • Directional edge: Up (post-capitulation rebound + strong follow-through).
  • Location: Price is mid-zone below resistance; best R:R is buying a pullback into support rather than chasing into 192–194 supply.

Optimal entry (open price)

  • Buy (Long) around $188.20
    • Rationale: sits just below 190 (retest), near post-impulse consolidation area; aims to catch a normal retracement without demanding a full breakdown.

Take-profit (close price)

  • Close (TP) at $196.80
    • Rationale: targets the next upside band before the heavier psychological/structural area near ~200; aligns with the current high-volatility regime (reachable within a day if momentum persists).

(Risk note: In a real plan I’d also define a stop—e.g., below ~185 or below the entry-day swing low—however you only requested open/close for profit.)

24h outlook (summary)

  • Bias: Bullish
  • Expected path: pullback to 188–186.5 → rebound → test 193–194 → potential extension to 196–198 if breakout holds
  • Invalidation vibe: sustained trade below 186/185 increases odds of revisiting 182.