NVDA Rejects the $193 Supply Zone: High-Volume Reversal Signals a 24H Pullback Toward $185–$186

NVDA (NVIDIA) — 24H Technical Outlook (based on provided OHLCV)

Current price (snapshot): $186.94 (latest intraday prints show ~$187.88–$187.91 area)

1) Multi-timeframe structure (Daily)

• Range regime since mid-Dec: Price has largely oscillated between roughly $170–$194.
• Recent swing sequence:
  • Late Jan push to ~$194.49 high (1/30) followed by a sharp selloff into ~$171–$174 (2/4–2/5).
  • Strong rebound 2/6 close $185.41 then continuation to 2/9 close $190.04.
  • Today (2/12 daily bar so far): open ~$193.03, high $193.60, low $186.51, last/close print in dataset $186.94 → large bearish reversal day from the top of the recent rebound.

Interpretation: the rebound from 171–174 was strong, but today’s candle is a failed push / bull trap near resistance (192–194). That typically shifts odds to mean-reversion down or at least range rotation back toward mid-range support.

2) Candlestick & price action signals

• Bearish engulfing / long upper distribution: Today opened near highs and sold down materially (intraday high 193.6 → low 186.5). This is classic rejection of the 192–194 supply zone.
• Intraday breakdown: Hourlies show a sharp sell impulse from ~191.7 to ~187.3, then weak bounce to ~189.6, followed by renewed drift down to ~186.9–187.9.

Implication for next 24h: After such a rejection day, bounces into resistance often get sold (dead-cat / relief rallies are typically short-lived).

3) Key horizontal levels (Support/Resistance mapping)

Resistance (sell zones):

• $189.9–$190.6: intraday pivot zone (multiple hour closes/opens near 189–190); also psychologically important 190.
• $191.7–$193.6: today’s breakdown origin + session high zone (major supply).

Support (cover zones / demand):

• $186.5–$187.0: today’s low-to-last area; first support but weakened (already retested into the close).
• $184.8–$185.6: prior daily closes/support (2/2 close 185.61; 1/12 close 184.94).
• $183.3–$184.0: prior pivot (1/21 close 183.32).

Given the magnitude of today’s reversal, $184.8–$185.6 is the more meaningful “next magnet” if selling continues.

4) Trend & moving-average logic (inferred)

We can’t compute exact SMAs/EMAs without full-series calculations here, but structurally:

• Price is back below the rebound zone (190) and likely back under short-term trend measures (typical 5–10 day).
• The broader regime is sideways to choppy, with frequent sharp rotations.

Takeaway: In a range regime, failed breakouts at range highs tend to revert toward the mean/mid-support.

5) Momentum (RSI/MACD style inference from swings)

• The move 171.9 → 193.6 in ~6 trading days was steep; momentum likely reached short-term overbought.
• Today’s selloff is a momentum reset and often kicks off a 1–3 day pullback.

Implication: Momentum bias next 24h is down / corrective, unless price quickly reclaims ~190.6 and holds.

6) Volatility / ATR-style reasoning

• Recent daily ranges expanded dramatically (e.g., 2/6: low 174.6 high 187; 2/12: high 193.6 low 186.5).
• That implies elevated ATR → larger intraday swings, meaning fades at resistance can pay, but position sizing must be conservative.

7) Volume & “effort vs result”

• Today’s daily volume in dataset is ~187M, comparable to other high-activity days during turning points.
• High volume + strong rejection from highs = distribution signature (sellers active into strength).

8) Scenario tree (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability):

• Price attempts a bounce toward 189.5–190.5, meets supply, then rotates down to test 185.6, possibly 184.8.

Bull invalidation (lower probability):

• Rapid reclaim of 190.6 with holding above 191.7 would suggest today was a flush and buyers regained control; then 192.8–193.6 could be retested.

Given the reversal context, selling rallies is favored.

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24H Prediction

Bias: Bearish-to-neutral (pullback / range rotation lower).

Expected path:

• Early: bounce attempts capped below ~190
• Later: drift/impulse toward 185–186

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Trade Plan (1-day tactical)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Rationale: rejection at major resistance (192–194), breakdown from 190 area, distribution-like volume, elevated volatility favoring mean reversion.

Optimal Open (entry)

• Open Price (short): $189.80
  • This targets a likely retest of the broken pivot near 190.0 (better R:R than shorting at ~187).

Target (take profit)

• Close Price (take profit): $185.60
  • Confluence with prior daily support (2/2 close ~185.61) and likely first strong demand zone.

(Risk note you didn’t request: invalidation would be a sustained move above ~191.70–193.00 zone, as that would negate the “sell the bounce” thesis.)