NVDA Rejected at 193: Bearish Range Re-Entry Signals a 24h Retest Toward 181–180

Market Snapshot (NVDA)

• Current price: 182.81 (spot) / last print in hourly feed ~183.06
• Most recent daily close (2026-02-13): 182.81
• 24h context: Sharp pullback from the 2/12 close 186.94 → 182.81 (~-2.2%). Intraday low printed near 181.59.

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1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure

Daily trend (swing structure)

• Late Jan upswing: 1/20 low ~178 → 1/30 high zone ~194.5.
• Early Feb correction: 2/03–2/05 sold off hard to ~171.03 (capitulation leg).
• Rebound: 2/06–2/11 rallied back to ~193.26 (lower-high vs 1/30’s 194.5 region).
• Last two sessions: 2/12 and 2/13 show distribution / rejection from ~193 area and a move back into the prior consolidation band (low 180s).

Interpretation: Daily is transitioning from rebound into short-term down-move (lower highs forming, momentum rolling over), but still inside a broader range bounded roughly 171–194.

Hourly trend (tactical)

• From 2/13 14:30 onward, price stair-stepped lower (184 → 182s) with only shallow bounces.
• Hourly closes repeatedly failed to reclaim ~184.8–185.2 (micro resistance).

Interpretation: Hourly is bearish, showing persistent supply on rallies.

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2) Key Support/Resistance (price action + pivots)

Resistance zones

• 184.80–186.00: Prior intraday support turned resistance (failed bounces during the selloff).
• 187.50–188.35: Several hourly opens/highs around this region earlier in the session.
• 190.00–193.30: Major supply from 2/09–2/12 highs; strong rejection occurred.

Support zones

• 182.00–181.60: Current demand pocket; day low area 181.59 is the nearest clear “line in the sand.”
• 180.60–179.80: Prior daily closes/opens (seen multiple times in Oct–Dec and again Jan). If 181.6 breaks, this is the next magnet.
• 176.50–174.60: Prior early-Feb base and breakdown area.
• 171.00: Feb capitulation low.

Pivot logic: With price below 184–186, the market is biased to retest supports before attempting any sustained recovery.

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3) Momentum & Mean-Reversion Signals (qualitative from sequence)

RSI-style inference (no explicit calc, based on impulse/relief pattern)

• The move 193 → 182 in ~2 sessions implies momentum has shifted bearish; however, after a fast drop, short-term conditions can become locally oversold near support.

MACD-style inference

• Rebound into 2/11 produced a momentum peak; 2/12 and 2/13 produced lower closes and expanding red candles, consistent with a bearish MACD rollover (trend deceleration + negative impulse).

Moving-average regime (inference)

• Price action suggests NVDA is rotating around a mid-band (likely near mid/high 180s). With price now below the recent rebound midpoint, rallies are likely to be sold until price reclaims 185+ convincingly.

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4) Volatility, Range, and “Where Price Wants to Go”

• Recent daily ranges are large (examples: 2/06 high 187 low 174.6; 2/09 high 193.66 low 183.95). This indicates elevated ATR.
• Elevated ATR increases the probability of support sweeps (brief breaks of 181.6) even if the day ends higher.

Implication for next 24h: Expect wide swings; likely path is a retest of 181.6 and possibly 180.6 before any meaningful bounce.

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5) Volume & Effort vs Result (Wyckoff-style)

• Heavy volume during down legs earlier in Feb (2/03–2/06) and again elevated on the recent selloff days implies:
  • Strong participation (institutions active).
  • The rebound into 193 saw supply and subsequent markdown.

Wyckoff read: The 2/09–2/12 area resembles a UTAD / bull trap attempt (push up toward 193 then failure), followed by markdown back into the range.

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6) Pattern Recognition

• Failed swing / lower high: 2/11 high near 193.26 followed by lower close 2/12 and another breakdown 2/13.
• Range re-entry: After testing the upper band (~193), price returned to mid/lower range (~182).

Pattern implication: High probability of continuation lower toward the lower part of the range in the near term (next 24h), unless 185+ is reclaimed.

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7) Scenario Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Base case (highest probability): Bearish continuation with support tests

• Price likely attempts a bounce toward 184.0–184.8 (typical reaction rally).
• Sellers likely defend that zone; then price drifts back to 182, with a higher chance of a liquidity sweep to 181.6 / 180.6.
• Expected 24h bias: Down / choppy, with downside exploration.

Bull case (lower probability): Reclaim 185.5 and squeeze

• Requires acceptance above 185.5–186.
• Would open room back to 187.5–188.3, possibly 190.

Bear case (tail risk): Break 180.6 decisively

• Could accelerate toward 176.5–174.6 if broader market risk-off hits.

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Trade Plan (Decision + Optimal Entry)

Given:

• Lower-high rejection from 193
• Current price below key resistance (184.8–186)
• Hourly structure bearish

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Optimal open (entry)

• Best risk/reward is to short a retest of resistance, not the middle of support.
• Open Price (Sell): 184.80
  • Rationale: aligns with the micro resistance shelf (multiple failed bounces) and offers better placement vs current ~183.

Take-profit / close

• First meaningful demand is 181.6, next is 180.6.
• Close Price (Take Profit): 180.60
  • Rationale: targets the next strong support pocket; realistic within 24h given current ATR.

(Risk note for execution: if price fails to rally to 184.8, a secondary/less optimal entry would be a breakdown-and-retest of ~182.0 from below. Not used here because you asked for a single optimal open price.)