NVDA

Prediction

BEARISH

Target

$183.2

Estimated

Model

trdz-T52k

Date

2026-02-17

22:00

Analyzed

NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA at the 188–190 Supply Wall: Post-Capitulation Rally Meets Overhead Inventory

Market Snapshot (NVDA)

Current price: $184.97 (latest print in your payload shows after-hours around $186.835)
Regime (last ~4 months): high-volatility, mean-reverting range with sharp event-driven swings.

1) Multi-timeframe Trend Structure

Daily trend (swing structure)

Oct peak: price accelerated into ~212 (10/29 high area) then sold off hard into mid/late Nov.
Key drawdown: late Nov lows near 173 (11/21 low ~172.93; 11/25 low ~169.55).
Dec recovery: rebound to 192.69 (12/26 high) then chopped.
Jan: mostly range-bound ~178–194, with a sharp flush on 1/20 to 177.61 then recovery back to ~192.
Early Feb: breakdown from ~185–192 into 171–174 (2/4–2/5), followed by a V-reversal (2/6 close 185.41, 2/9 close 190.04) and then pullback (2/13 close 182.81).
Most recent day (2/17): strong intraday recovery; daily close in dataset ~184.97.

Interpretation: The dominant daily pattern since December is a range with fast mean reversion. The early-Feb flush to ~171–174 looks like a liquidity sweep / capitulation leg, followed by a reflex rally. Price is now back into the middle-upper part of the recent range.

Intraday (hourly) behavior on 2/17

Morning drift and weak prints around 181.
From 14:30 onward: impulsive push 180.41 → 186.42 (18:30 close), then consolidation.
Late print shows 186.8 with a spike high near 190.07 (21:00 bar), suggesting stop-run / thin-liquidity spike rather than stable acceptance above 188–190.

Interpretation: Bulls regained control during regular hours, but the 190 area rejected quickly. That matters for the next 24h: likely retest of 186–187, and if rejected, a fade back into 183–184.

2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Memory)

Major resistance zones

188.5–190.5: repeated pivots (12/26–12/29 area; multiple Jan closes; 2/10–2/12; and today’s intraday spike/rollback). This is the most important near-term supply zone.
192.5–194.5: late Jan highs and multi-touch ceiling (1/28–1/30; 2/9 high 193.66). Break/hold above here would shift regime bullish.

Major support zones

184.0–185.0: very “magnetic” pivot (many daily closes around 184–186; today’s close area). If lost, the move likely reverts to mid-range.
181.0–182.0: dense intraday trading band today plus prior close (2/13 close 182.81). Key line-in-sand for bulls.
176–174: breakdown base + bounce origin (2/4–2/6). If revisited, it’s a deeper retracement and suggests the rally failed.

3) Momentum & Oscillation (inference from price action)

(Exact RSI/MACD values aren’t computable here without running full indicator math, but the structure allows robust inference.)

RSI-style read

The 2/4–2/5 selloff followed by 2/6 gap-like reversal is typical of an oversold → snapback condition.
After the rebound to ~190 and pullback to ~183, momentum cooled (RSI likely normalized from oversold toward midline).
Today’s push back toward 186–187 likely lifts RSI toward 55–60, i.e., not extreme, but approaching a known resistance band.

MACD-style read

Post-capitulation bounces often produce a bullish MACD cross but then flatten into range resistance.
The failure to hold above 188–190 in recent sessions implies momentum is improving, but not yet trending strongly.

Takeaway: Momentum improved, but price is running into a well-defined supply zone where prior rallies stalled.

4) Volatility & Range Statistics (practical trading implication)

Recent daily candles include several large true-range days (notably 2/6, 2/9, 2/12).
That implies elevated ATR; in elevated-ATR environments, price often overextends intraday and then mean-reverts toward VWAP / prior pivots.

Implication for next 24h: Expect two-sided trade. Chasing strength into 188–190 has historically offered poor reward/risk unless there is a clean breakout/hold.

5) Volume & Effort/Result

Large-volume selloff days in early Feb (2/3–2/6) suggest capitulation + institutional activity.
The rebound day 2/6 had very high volume and strong close, consistent with stopping volume.
However, subsequent inability to trend through 192–194 suggests distribution/overhead supply remains.

Interpretation: Stronger base than early Feb, but still heavy overhead inventory between 188 and 194.

6) Price Pattern / Wyckoff-style lens

Selling climax (SC): 2/4–2/5 lows around 171–174.
Automatic rally (AR): 2/6–2/9 rebound toward 187–193.
Secondary test (ST): pullback into 182–183 (2/13) without revisiting lows.
Now: price is rallying back into creek / supply near 188–190.

This often produces either:

Sign of strength (SOS) = breakout and hold above 190 then 193–194, or
Upthrust / UTAD-like rejection = probe above 188–190 then fade back into range.

Given today’s spike to ~190 and immediate retreat, the short-term tape looks closer to (2) unless 190 is reclaimed quickly.

7) 24-Hour Forecast (scenario-based)

Base case (higher probability): Range + mild downside mean reversion

Price consolidates under 188–190; sellers defend; drift back toward 184–185, possibly 182 if risk-off.
Expected 24h path: 186.5 → 188 (fail) → 184–185.

Bull case (lower probability but possible): Breakout acceptance

A sustained hold above 190 (not just a wick) opens a move to 192.5–194.5.
Would require strong open and continued demand.

Bear case (tail risk): Failed rally → sharper pullback

Lose 184, then 181–182 breaks; quick slide to 176–178.

Net expectation: Slight bearish bias from overhead resistance and today’s rejection wick near 190.

8) Trade Plan (optimal entry based on current price)

Because NVDA is sitting just under a major supply band, the higher edge setup is to sell/short into resistance rather than buy into it.

Preferred short entry (“open price”): $188.90 (inside the 188.5–190.5 supply zone; better R:R than shorting 184–186).
Take-profit (“close price”): $183.20 (near pivot support and prior value area; realistic within 24h if rejection plays out).

(If price never retraces to ~188.9 and instead breaks/holds above 190, this short thesis weakens.)

Decision Logic Summary

Price is in a range regime with heavy resistance 188–190.
Intraday printed a stop-run spike to ~190 and failed to hold, a common precursor to a fade.
Expectation for next 24h: mean reversion lower toward 183–185.

Therefore: Sell (short).