NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA at Range-Ceiling Supply: Rejection Signals Favor a 24h Pullback Toward Mid-Range Support

Multi-Method Technical Read (Daily + Intraday) — NVDA ($187.98)

1) Market structure & trend (swing context)

Primary swing (Oct→Nov): Strong push to a peak zone around 212 (10/29), followed by a sharp selloff into late Nov/Dec. That established 212 as major macro resistance and shifted structure from trending up to range/mean-reversion.
Mid-term range (Dec→Feb): Price has spent most of the last ~2 months oscillating roughly between ~171–193.
- Range low/accumulation: 171–175 (2/4 close 174.19, 2/5 close 171.88).
- Range high/distribution: 191–193.6 (2/9 high 193.66, 2/12 high 193.61, 1/29 high 193.48).
Current location: 187.98 is upper-mid range, below the repeated supply band 190–193.6.

Implication: In a mature range, odds favor fade trades near resistance unless price shows a clean breakout + acceptance above the ceiling.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action)

Nearby resistances

189.7–190.4: multiple intraday rejections today (hourly highs and stalling around 189.95/190.37).
191.4: intraday spike (14:00 hourly high 191.4) rejected back under 190.
192.5–193.6: repeated daily swing cap (1/29–2/12).

Nearby supports

186.7–187.0: intraday shelf (numerous prints; 19:30 low touched 186.76 before bounce).
184.9–185.6: recent daily closes/opens around this area; 2/17 close 184.97.
182.8–183.0: 2/13 close 182.81; pivot support.

Implication: With price sitting just under a dense resistance band, upside is likely capped over the next session unless the market can reclaim and hold >190.5–191.

3) Candlestick & recent daily behavior

2/12–2/13: a push to 193.61 failed and rolled down to 182.81—a classic rejection from range highs.
2/17–2/18: rebound attempt back toward the 190 area, but today’s action shows failure to sustain above ~189.8–190.4.

Implication: This looks like a return-to-supply (mean reversion up into sellers), not an impulsive breakout leg.

4) Momentum & rate-of-change (qualitative from swings)

From 2/5 close 171.88 → 2/9 close 190.04: strong rebound (high momentum).
Since then: lower follow-through, with price unable to exceed the 193.6 ceiling and now stalling below 190.

Implication: Momentum has cooled near resistance; that typically increases probability of pullback toward mid-range supports.

5) Volume & volatility clues

Daily volumes remain elevated across the Feb swings (roughly ~160M–230M), suggesting two-sided institutional activity.
Intraday today shows a large volume burst at 19:30 with a drop to 186.76 then partial recovery—often a sign of distribution/stop runs around a level.
Today’s daily range (low 186.76 to high 190.37) is moderate; not a breakout volatility expansion.

Implication: No clear “volatility expansion + close near highs” signature that would support a clean long continuation.

6) VWAP-style intraday read (from the provided hourlies)

Price spent meaningful time below the ~189–190 area after failing to hold the earlier push.
Late-session trade printed down to 186.97 and only recovered to high-187s.

Implication: Intraday control shifted from buyers to sellers after the rejection—typically bearish for the next 24 hours (at least early session).

7) Scenario analysis (next 24h)

Base case (highest probability): mild bearish mean-reversion

Re-test/pressure into 189.5–190.3 gets sold.
Drift/pullback toward 187 → 185.6, with risk of probing ~184.9.

Bull case (invalidates short bias): breakout acceptance

Price holds above 191 and pushes through 192.5–193 with strength.
That would flip the range ceiling into support and open a squeeze toward ~195–197.

Bear case (accelerated rejection):

Quick failure under 187 leads to a move toward 185.6, then 183.

Net expectation: Down/sideways over the next 24 hours, biased to a pullback from resistance.

Trade Decision (24h tactical)

Given the repeated rejection area at 190–193.6, current price sitting below that supply, and intraday distribution-like behavior, the higher-probability tactical trade is a Short (Sell), ideally entered on a bounce into resistance.

Risk logic (what would prove this wrong)

Sustained trade and acceptance above ~191.5–192 would indicate sellers are no longer controlling the ceiling; that would reduce short edge.

Price targets

Open (optimal short entry): 189.90 (near the 189.7–190.4 resistance band; better R:R than shorting 187.98).
Close (take profit): 185.60 (first meaningful support cluster; aligns with recent daily pivot behavior).

(If price never re-tests 189.9 and instead breaks down directly, the “optimal” entry is missed; chasing at mid-range worsens expectancy.)