NVDA Coils Above 186 Support: High-Probability Range Rotation Toward 190

Multi‑timeframe technical read (NVDA) — last print $187.90 (intraday feed ~187.37–187.90)

1) Market structure & trend (Daily)

Data window: 2025‑10‑22 → 2026‑02‑19 (daily OHLCV provided)

• Primary swing: Strong up-leg into late Oct (close peak area ~207 on 10/29), then a meaningful drawdown into late Nov/early Dec (lows ~169–173), followed by a range-to-recovery back into the high 180s/low 190s.
• Recent regime (Jan → mid‑Feb): Mostly sideways to mildly up, oscillating roughly 174 → 193.
• Immediate daily structure: From the 2/4–2/5 low zone (~171–174) price rebounded to 2/9 high ~193.66 and then pulled back to 2/13 close ~182.81, before re‑basing and returning to ~188.

Conclusion: Medium-term is range-bound, but the higher-low sequence since early Feb remains intact unless price loses the mid‑180s decisively.

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2) Key support/resistance mapping (Price action)

Using repeated daily pivots and recent intraday interaction:

Resistance (supply):

• 188.3–190.4: Multiple recent closes/prints and a near-term ceiling (2/18 close ~187.98; intraday highs ~188.43; daily highs 190.37).
• 192.5–193.7: Feb rebound high area (2/9 high 193.66; 1/29 high 193.48). This is the range top / breakout trigger.

Support (demand):

• 186.0–186.5: Repeated intraday lows/settlements (several hourly lows ~186.16–186.40; day’s low 185.66).
• 185.6–185.7: Today’s daily low (~185.66) = first meaningful stop-run magnet.
• 182.8–183.3: 2/13 close ~182.81; 2/17 close ~184.97 (pivot band). Loss of this area shifts bias bearish.
• 171–174: Early Feb capitulation zone (major support; far for 24h horizon but defines tail risk).

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3) Candlestick & pattern diagnostics

Daily candles (recent):

• 2/6 showed a strong rebound day (close 185.41 after printing up to 187) after weakness—often a short-term reversal signature.
• 2/9 continuation to ~193.66 then failure to hold the highs (subsequent closes drifted down), suggesting distribution near 193–194.
• 2/18–2/19: closes near 188, indicating acceptance around 187–188 (value area forming).

Pattern interpretation:

• The broader pattern since early Feb resembles a range with a developing base around 182–186, capped by 192–194. That favors mean-reversion up from support unless resistance breaks.

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4) Volume & participation

• The sharp selloff (early Feb) had elevated volume (2/3–2/6 all heavy), followed by strong rebound volume (2/6, 2/9). This often marks a capitulation → repair sequence.
• Recent sessions (2/17–2/19) show moderate volume vs the spike days, consistent with consolidation rather than trend acceleration.

Implication for next 24h: higher probability of range continuation (rotations) rather than a clean breakout, unless a catalyst hits.

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5) Momentum (proxy read from closes; RSI/MACD logic)

Exact RSI/MACD aren’t directly computable here with full precision, but the shape is inferable:

• Move 171 → 193 in ~3 sessions (2/5→2/9) would have pushed short-term RSI toward overbought, then the pullback to ~183 (2/13) cooled momentum back toward neutral.
• Now price is back near ~188, which is consistent with RSI mid‑range (not stretched), allowing room for a push back toward 190–193.

Momentum takeaway: Not a chase zone; better to buy on a dip into support.

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6) Volatility / ATR reasoning

• Daily ranges in early Feb were large (e.g., 2/6: ~12+ points; 2/4: ~7+ points). Recently ranges have compressed (2/18 range ~3.6; 2/19 daily range ~2.77).
• Compression after expansion often precedes a directional move, but inside a larger range it frequently expresses as a push from mid-range to an edge first.

24h expectation: likely travel of ~2–4 dollars (normal) with tail risk to 5–7 if a volatility shock repeats.

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7) Intraday (hourly) microstructure — 2/19

Hourly prints show:

• Midday spike anomaly at 13:00 showing a huge low (181.685) / high (190.7001). Given neighboring hours and later regular trading values, this looks like bad tick / aggregation artifact rather than true traded range.
• Excluding that, price action is a tight coil around 186.2 → 187.9, with repeated defenses above ~186.2–186.5.

Intraday read: buyers are absorbing dips; sellers are capping under 188.4–188.6.

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8) Scenario planning (next 24h)

Base case (most likely):

• Mean-reversion higher from 186–187 back toward 188.8–190.4.
• Probability: moderate-high.

Bull case:

• Break and hold above 190.5, then test 192.5–193.7 (range top).
• Requires strong bid + volume.

Bear case:

• Lose 185.6 (today’s low) → quick slide into 183.3–182.8 pivot band.
• Would flip the short-term structure bearish.

Net: With price sitting mid-to-upper part of the near-term value area and support repeatedly defended, the higher-probability 24h move is slightly upward / range grind up unless 185.6 breaks.

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Trade bias (24h): Buy (Long)

Rationale: consolidation above a defended support shelf (186–185.6) with room to rotate to the next resistance band (189–190.4), within an established 182–193 range.

Optimal order placement

Because price is currently ~187.9 (near mid-range), the higher expectancy entry is a limit buy on a pullback into support rather than a market chase.

• Open (Buy Limit): 186.40
  Why: sits inside the repeatedly defended intraday demand zone (≈186.2–186.5) while staying above the key breakdown trigger (185.6).

• Close (Take Profit): 190.20
  Why: just below the heavy resistance/congestion band (≈190.3–190.4), improving fill probability before sellers reappear.

(Risk note you didn’t request: if managing risk, a logical invalidation is below ~185.50.)

24h directional call: mild bullish; expectation is a move toward ~189.5–190.5 with potential wick toward ~192 if momentum returns.