Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA at the Range Ceiling: Rejection Near $194 Signals a 24H Pullback Setup
Market Snapshot (NVDA)
- Current price: $191.55 (latest tick ~191.71)
- Latest session (2026-02-23 daily): O 191.40 / H 193.95 / L 189.57 / C 191.55
- Intraday structure (hourly): strong push to ~193.77–193.95, then pullback to ~189.57, then grind back to ~191.6–191.7.
1) Trend & Structure (Multi-timeframe)
Daily swing structure (from provided daily candles)
- Major downswing (late Jan → early Feb): ~194.49 (01/30 high) down to 171.88 (02/05 close) / 171.03 (02/05 low).
- Recovery leg (02/06 → 02/10): sharp rebound to 193.66 (02/09 high).
- Pullback & consolidation (02/10 → 02/23): higher lows formed (182.81 on 02/13) and price re-entered the upper part of the Feb range.
Interpretation: Since 02/06, price is in a recovery / base-building phase after a sharp selloff. However, price is now back near a well-defined supply zone (190–194) where it repeatedly stalled.
Intraday (hourly) market structure (02/23)
- Impulsive leg: ~190.7 → ~193.8
- Corrective leg: ~193.8 → ~189.6 (deep retrace)
- Re-accumulation: ~189.6 → ~191.7
Interpretation: Classic “pop → flush → recover” day suggests liquidity was taken above and below key levels. Ending back near ~191–192 often leads to mean-reverting action inside the range unless a fresh catalyst pushes a breakout.
2) Support/Resistance Mapping (Price Action)
Key resistance (supply)
- 193.7–194.5: multiple rejections (02/09 high 193.66; 02/23 high 193.95; 01/30 high 194.49). This is the clearest near-term ceiling.
- 192.5–193.0: prior closes/opens cluster (01/29 close 192.51; several intraday pivots).
Key support (demand)
- 189.5–190.0: today’s low area 189.57; also intraday pivot at 189.99–190.19 late session.
- 187.8–188.3: frequent daily pivots (02/19–02/20 area; prior congestion).
- 185.4–186.0: prior support (02/12 close 186.94; 02/18 low 186.76).
Implication: Price is currently mid-range (not at extreme support). Best risk/reward favors selling closer to resistance rather than buying here into overhead supply.
3) Moving Averages (Inference from price behavior)
While exact MA values aren’t computed here, the sequence suggests:
- After the Feb drop, short-term averages likely turned down, then began flattening during the rebound.
- With price oscillating 185–193 lately, NVDA is likely near a flattening short-term MA, but still capped by the 193–194 zone.
MA-based read: Neutral-to-slightly bearish at current level because price is pressing into a repeated rejection band rather than breaking and holding above it.
4) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning without exact calc)
- The 02/06–02/09 rally was momentum-heavy (large range, strong follow-through).
- Subsequent action shows momentum fading: multiple failures to hold above ~192–194 and repeated pullbacks.
- Today specifically: strong push to 193.95 failed and retraced significantly to 189.57 before recovering—often a sign of distribution near resistance.
Momentum implication: Upside momentum is present but not persistent; sellers defend the upper band. That favors a 24h pullback/rotation rather than clean continuation.
5) Volatility & Range Analysis (ATR-style)
- Daily ranges recently: several $3–$10 days (notably 02/06 huge range; 02/23 ~4.38 range high-to-low).
- The presence of repeated $4–$6 daily swings implies room for a 1–2% move in either direction within 24h.
Volatility implication: If entering now, you want to enter near an edge (resistance) to avoid chop in the middle of the range.
6) Volume/Participation Clues
- Big volume during the selloff (early Feb) and during the rebound day (02/06).
- Today’s volume is high (169.8M daily) with a large intraday reversal—often consistent with two-sided trade and profit-taking.
Volume implication: Not a clean breakout confirmation day; more consistent with range continuation.
7) Pattern & Market Mechanics
Range + “failed breakout” tendency
- Repeated tests of the 193–194 zone with inability to sustain above suggests a range ceiling.
- Today’s wick/rejection from ~193.95 strengthens the idea of a near-term bull trap risk.
Fibonacci-style retracement framing (from Feb low to Feb high)
- Swing low ~171 (02/05) to swing high ~193.7 (02/09) ⇒ midpoint ~182.3.
- Price has held above that mid for much of mid/late Feb, but has not reclaimed/held above the prior high zone.
Mechanics implication: This looks like a rebound that is stalling at prior high—often followed by a pullback to retest mid-supports (190 → 188 → 186).
24-Hour Forecast (Directional Bias)
Base case (higher probability):
- Slight bearish / mean-reversion down from ~191–192 back toward 190, potentially 188.5–189.5 if the 190 handle fails intraday.
Bull case (invalidates short thesis):
- A strong push and acceptance above 194.5 (not just a wick) would signal breakout and open room toward ~196–198.
Bear extension scenario:
- Rejection near 193 again and breakdown below 189.5 could accelerate toward 188 → 186.9.
Given the repeated supply at 193–194 and today’s rejection, the 24h bias is for a pullback/consolidation, not a clean upside continuation.
Trade Plan (Optimal Entry Based on Current Price)
Because price is not at an edge, the optimal plan is to sell a bounce into resistance (limit/conditional entry), rather than market-selling in the middle.
- Preferred short entry zone: 192.8–193.6 (prior pivot + near today’s failed breakout area)
- If only one price is allowed: use ~193.20 as the open.
Profit-taking should target the first strong demand layer near 189–190.
Final Call
- Decision: Sell (short bias)
- Rationale: repeated failures at 193–194, intraday rejection/wick behavior, range-bound conditions, and better risk/reward selling into the ceiling than buying beneath it.