Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA Post-Flush V-Reversal: Dip-Buy Setup Targeting a 194 Break and 197+ Continuation
NVDA (NVIDIA) — 24H Technical Outlook (based on provided daily + intraday data)
Current price (snapshot): 192.85
1) Multi-timeframe structure (Trend / Market regime)
Daily trend (Oct 2025 → Feb 2026):
- Price has been largely range-to-mild-up since late Dec, but with sharp drawdowns and recoveries.
- Key swing points visible:
- Peak zone: ~212 (Oct 29 high 212.19)
- Major selloff trough: ~173–175 area (Feb 4–5 lows ~171.03–171.91; Dec 17 low ~170.31)
- Recent recovery: from 171.88 close (Feb 5) to 192.85 close (Feb 24) = strong rebound.
- The last ~2 weeks show higher lows (Feb 13 close 182.81 → Feb 17 close 184.97 → Feb 20 close 189.82 → Feb 24 close 192.85). This supports a short-term uptrend.
Intraday (hourly, Feb 24):
- Clear midday flush (12:00 bar low 189.03; 13:00 bar low 186.355) followed by V-reversal back above 192.
- Late session shows compression around 192.4–193.2 (tight range) after the rebound—often a sign of post-impulse consolidation, which can resolve either direction, but tends to continue if no heavy distribution appears.
Regime conclusion: short-term bullish recovery within a broader medium-term range (roughly 175–205).
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action / volume logic)
Nearest supports (where buyers previously defended):
- 191.5–192.0: intraday pivots (14:00 close 191.5; 14:30 low-to-close recovery; multiple closes around 192).
- 189.6–190.2: prior daily levels (Feb 20 close 189.82; Feb 24 had heavy trading and earlier breaks).
- 187.4–188.8: Feb 24 day low 187.40 and Feb 19–20 lows.
Nearest resistances (where supply is likely):
- 193.7–194.0: Feb 24 high 193.77; Feb 23 high 193.95.
- 201–203: strong historical supply zone (multiple prior highs; also Oct/Nov distribution area).
Implication: with price at 192.85, NVDA is near resistance #1 (193.7–194). That makes immediate upside somewhat capped unless a breakout holds.
3) Candlestick / pattern read
Daily candle (Feb 24):
- Open 191.49, Low 187.40, Close 192.85, High 193.77.
- This resembles a bullish rejection / hammer-like recovery (long lower wick, close strong). Such candles often mark local lows or at least near-term support, especially when they occur after a pullback and inside a rising sequence.
Intraday sequence:
- The 13:00 hour prints an extreme low (186.355) then subsequent hours reclaim 190+ and stabilize >192.
- This is consistent with stop-run liquidity sweep followed by mean-reversion + trend resumption.
4) Momentum & rate-of-change (proxy via swings)
Even without explicit RSI/MACD calculations, we can infer momentum from:
- Strong rebound from Feb 5 close 171.88 → Feb 9 close 190.04 (impulse), then consolidation/pullback, then new push to ~193–194.
- Recent daily closes: 189.82 → 191.55 → 192.85 indicates positive short-term momentum.
Momentum conclusion: bullish momentum is present, but short-term is extended into first resistance, suggesting better risk/reward comes from buying a pullback rather than chasing.
5) Volatility / range statistics (ATR-like reasoning)
Today’s daily range: 193.77 − 187.40 = 6.37 (~3.3% of price). Recent days show 3–6 point intraday ranges are common.
Implication for 24H: expect wide intraday swings; placing entries near support (not mid-range) materially improves expectancy.
6) Mean reversion vs. breakout framework
Breakout case (bullish):
- A clean hold above 193.8–194.0 increases probability of a push toward 197–199 first, then 200–203.
- However, current price is below that breakout trigger.
Mean reversion / pullback-buy case (preferred):
- Since 192.85 is near resistance, a pullback into 191.5–192.0 (or even 190 area) provides:
- defined invalidation below 189.6/188.8
- upside back to 193.8 then 196+
Given the strong rejection from 187.4 today, the market is signaling buyers underneath.
7) Market profile / volume clue (qualitative)
- The largest activity appears during the rebound and consolidation hours (notably 15:30, 16:30, 18:30 with large prints). That often indicates acceptance near ~192–193 after the flush.
- Acceptance above 192 tends to support a grind higher, unless price quickly loses 191.5.
8) 24-hour directional forecast (next session)
Base case (higher probability):
- Slight bullish bias / consolidation-to-up.
- Expect early retest of 191.5–192.0; if it holds, price likely attempts 193.8–194.0 again.
- If 194 breaks and holds, extension toward 196–198 becomes likely within 24 hours.
Bear case (risk scenario):
- Failure back below 191.5, then loss of 190 opens a move to 188.8 → 187.4.
Net: the price action favors buyers on dips, not aggressive shorting into a bullish rejection day.
Trading Plan (1-day horizon)
Decision: Buy (Long position)
Rationale: bullish rejection + higher-lows structure + acceptance around 192; better probability of a retest/break of 193.8 leading to continuation.
Optimal Open Price (limit buy)
- Open (Buy) at: 191.80
- This targets the 191.5–192.0 support shelf observed intraday and aligns with “buy the pullback” rather than chasing 192.85 into resistance.
Close Price (take-profit)
- Close (TP) at: 197.40
- This sits below the psychological 198/near-term extension zone, and is a realistic 24H objective if 194 breaks.
(Practical note: if price never pulls back to ~191.8 and instead breaks/holds >194, the plan would typically shift to a breakout entry—but per your request, I’m specifying the optimal open price relative to current structure.)