Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA Breakout Attempt Above the Late-Feb Ceiling: Buy the Retest for a 24h Push Toward 200–203
Market Snapshot (NVDA)
- Current price (spot given): 195.56
- Latest intraday impulse: a sharp late-session/after-hours burst to ~201.14 (hourly print), with an extreme hourly high shown near 203.49.
- Regime: transition from multi-week range into an attempted breakout.
Note: your feed shows both a “currentPrice” (195.56) and hourly prints up to ~201.14. I’ll treat 195.56 as the actionable current/last and use the 201–203 spike as new information about resistance/volatility.
1) Multi-timeframe Trend & Structure
Daily trend (Nov → Feb)
- Downtrend / correction into early Feb (lows near 171–174 on 2/4–2/5).
- Recovery leg from 2/6 onward: higher lows and higher highs into late Feb.
- Key daily swing levels:
- Support: 189.5–191.0 (multiple closes/opens clustered: 2/20–2/24), then 185.5–187.0.
- Resistance: 193.8–194.5 (prior ceiling), then 197.6, then psychological 200.
Hourly structure (2/25)
- Steady grind up from ~193.7 → ~197.3 during regular hours, then a fast expansion move (to 201+ with a spike to 203.5).
- That’s characteristic of either:
- Breakout continuation if price can hold above the prior breakout area (196–197), or
- Exhaustion spike if it fails quickly back below 197/196.
Interpretation: Structure favors bullish continuation, but the magnitude and speed of the late spike increases the probability of a pullback/retest first.
2) Momentum & Rate-of-Change (Price Action Read)
Impulse/Correction sequencing
- From 2/20 close 189.82 to 2/25 close 195.56: +3.0% approx, a clean impulse.
- The late-hour jump to 201–203 implies a momentum burst that often gets partially mean-reverted within 24h.
Candlestick/behavioral cues
- 2/25 daily candle: higher high and higher close vs 2/24, supportive.
- Hourly: strong directional candles into the spike, but the 20:30 hour closed back down near 195.88 before the 21:00 surge—suggesting volatile two-way auction.
Momentum conclusion: bullish bias intact, but expect volatility and a retest of the breakout base.
3) Support/Resistance Mapping (Execution-Relevant)
Nearest supports
- 196.0–197.0: breakout/recent congestion (multiple hourly opens/closes).
- 193.8–194.5: intraday pivot band (midday + prior day area).
- 191.5–192.0: last week pivot support.
Nearest resistances
- 197.6: prior day/2/25 high area before the spike.
- 200.0–201.2: psychological + last traded burst.
- 203.5: spike high (likely first major sell wall / liquidity pool).
Key idea: If NVDA is truly breaking out, the market often offers a retest entry near 196–197 or 194–195 before attempting 200–203 again.
4) Volatility & Range Metrics (ATR-style reasoning)
Using recent daily ranges:
- Typical daily high-low over late Feb is roughly 4–6 points (e.g., 2/24 range ~6.37; 2/23 range ~4.37).
- With the spike behavior, the next 24h realized range could expand to 6–9 points.
Implication: A tight stop is likely to get tagged; better to enter on a pullback into support rather than chase the spike.
5) Volume & Participation
- 2/25 daily volume ~230M, higher than the prior two sessions (~171–175M) → participation increased.
- Hourly feed shows very large “volume” figures (some look aggregated/odd), but directionally it supports active accumulation + event-driven burst.
Volume conclusion: breakout attempt has real participation; that improves odds of follow-through.
6) Moving Averages (Inference)
We can’t compute exact SMA/EMA without full history, but from the data:
- Price has reclaimed the mid/upper part of the recent range (roughly 180–195).
- The market is likely above short-term averages (5–10 day) and attempting to regain medium-term levels.
MA-style conclusion: bias up, but price is near/above short-term “value,” so pullbacks are normal.
7) Pattern Recognition
- Base + breakout: The Feb bottom around 171–174 followed by higher lows suggests a rounded/ascending recovery base.
- Range resolution: late Feb had a ceiling around 193–194; today pushed through to ~195–197 and even printed above 200.
Pattern conclusion: probabilities favor continuation, targeting the next liquidity pockets above 200.
8) 24-Hour Price Movement Forecast (Scenario-Based)
Base case (higher probability): Bullish continuation with retest
- First: pullback/retest into 196.0–197.0 (or even 194.5–195.0)
- Then: reattempt 200–201
- 24h expected zone: 194.5–202.5
Bull case: Breakout holds above 197 quickly
- Momentum continuation toward 203–205 (203.5 is first gate)
Bear case: Spike fails (bull trap)
- Rejection from 200–203, fall back under 196, then drift to 193–194.
Net: Upward skew, but do not chase—prefer buying a retest.
Trade Decision (24h swing)
Decision: Buy (Long position)
Rationale: rising short-term structure, improving volume, and a clear breakout attempt above the late-Feb ceiling.
Optimal Open (Entry)
- Open Price (limit buy): 196.60
- This targets the retest zone (196–197) rather than chasing 200+.
- If price never pulls back, you miss the trade—but your risk-adjusted entry is better.
Target (Take Profit)
- Close Price (take profit): 202.80
- Below the 203.5 spike-high resistance to improve fill probability.
(Practical note: if your broker requires immediate execution and price is already >200, consider waiting for the retest rather than market-buying.)