NVDA Post-Rally Breakdown: High-Volume Reversal Signals 24h Downside Continuation

Market context & regime (Daily + Intraday)

Current price: 184.89 (last tick shows ~185.30)

1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily)

• Structure (Oct → Feb): Clear downshift from late-Oct highs (~212) into a multi-month range/decline with repeated lower highs (Dec/Jan peaks ~192–193) and repeated tests of the 170–176 demand zone.
• Most recent swing (Feb 6 → Feb 25): Strong rebound 171.88 → 195.56 (impulse up), then Feb 26 produced a large bearish reversal day: Open ~194.27, Low ~184.32, Close ~184.89.
• Interpretation: The rebound leg likely completed into resistance near 195–198 and today’s candle suggests distribution / bull-trap and potential mean-reversion down over the next sessions.

2) Candle/price action (Daily)

• Feb 26 candle: Big red body with wide range (≈ -5.5% day), closing near the lows.
• This resembles a bearish engulfing / reversal relative to the prior up-leg, and is often followed by continuation down (especially when it breaks below intraday supports).

3) Volume / participation

• Feb 26 daily volume: ~358M vs prior day ~251M → high-volume selloff.
• High volume on a down day after an upswing typically signals institutional selling rather than a light pullback.

4) Key levels (Support/Resistance mapping)

Immediate resistance (supply):

• 186.7–188.2: intraday bounce/failed recovery area (multiple hourly closes there).
• 192.7–195.6: prior day close/peak area; major supply from the breakdown.
• 197–199: pre-drop intraday highs.

Immediate support (demand):

• 184.3–184.9: today’s base/last traded region (fragile—freshly formed after liquidation).
• 182.8–183.3: prior daily pivot closes (seen mid-Feb).
• 180.3–181.4: major support shelf (Feb 3 close ~180.34; Nov/Dec pivots).
• 174–176: larger swing-demand zone (early Feb lows).

5) Moving-average logic (inference from series)

• Price is below the late-Feb highs and likely back below short MAs (5–10D) after today’s dump.
• The 50D/100D zone (visually likely mid-to-high 180s/low 190s given the long sideways) becomes overhead resistance now that price rejected ~195.
• Bias: sell rallies into MA resistance.

6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

• The Feb 6→25 advance likely pushed momentum up; the Feb 26 shock move likely caused momentum rollover (RSI drop, MACD histogram turn down).
• A large bearish day after a momentum run often marks a momentum regime flip (bullish → neutral/bearish) for at least 1–3 days.

7) Volatility / ATR behavior

• The day’s range (~10 points) is large relative to recent daily ranges → ATR expansion.
• After volatility expansion on a breakdown, price commonly continues in the direction of the break for the next 24–48 hours, with sharp countertrend bounces.

8) Intraday (Hourly) microstructure on Feb 26

• Pre-market/early: trading near 197–199, then breakdown begins around 14:00–14:30.
• 14:30 hour: collapse from ~194 → ~186 on huge volume.
• Post-drop: attempts to rebound toward 187–188 repeatedly failed; price drifted and based around 184.3–185.3 into the close.
• This is classic breakdown → dead-cat bounces sold → grind lower/basing. Basing after liquidation can either be absorption (bullish) or bear flag (bearish). Given close near lows and volume, odds favor bear flag / continuation unless 188+ is reclaimed.

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24-hour price movement forecast (next session)

Base case (higher probability):

• Sideways-to-down with early volatility. Expect an initial bounce attempt toward 186.7–188.2 that faces selling, followed by a retest of 184.3, then a drift toward 182.8–183.3.

Bear case (if 184.3 breaks with momentum):

• Quick move to 181.0 ± 0.7, possibly a wick toward 180.3.

Bull invalidation (what would negate the short thesis):

• Sustained trade back above 188.2 (hourly closes) and especially acceptance above 190 would suggest today was capitulation/absorption and could trigger a squeeze back toward 192.8–195.5.

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Trade plan (tactical)

Rationale

• We have a high-volume bearish reversal at resistance (195–198), volatility expansion, and failure to reclaim breakdown levels (187–188). These align with a short-biased 24h expectation.

Optimal entry concept

• Prefer selling a rebound into first supply rather than shorting the exact lows.
• Best risk/reward zone: 186.8–187.8 (intraday resistance + prior bounce highs).

Take-profit logic

• Nearest meaningful demand sits at 182.8–183.3 (pivot support). That’s a realistic 24h target given today’s range.

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Decision

Sell (Short Position) based on breakdown + reversal characteristics, overhead supply, and elevated downside continuation odds over the next 24 hours.